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MABUX ARA LNG Bunker Index
Port LNG$/mton MGO LS$/mton Date
ARA
1 617.00
+168.00
1 485.00
+5.00
Sep 14
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Port	LNG$/mton	MGO LS$/mton	Date
ARA	1 617.00	+168.00	1 485.00	+5.00	Sep 14

MABUX Global Bunker Index

380HSFO$/mton		VLS FO$/mton		MGO LS$/mton		Date
718.03	-0.48	871.20	-2.93	1 568.68	+4.94	Sep 16

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MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI)

Correlation between market bunker prices (MBP) and MABUX Digital Bunker Price Benchmark (DBP)

All Indexes in $/mton	380HSFO			VLS FO			MGO LS			Date
All Indexes in $/mton	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	Date
Rotterdam	630	747	-117	735	849	-114	1 485	1 722	-237	Sep 16
Singapore	768	791	-23	905	975	-70	1 443	1 715	-272	Sep 16
Fujairah	760	739	+21	1 002	915	+87	1 692	1 778	-86	Sep 16
Houston	552	754	-202	802	909	-107	1 490	1 664	-174	Sep 16

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Latest News
- 2026-09-16
  Oil prices dip as U.S. inventory build offsets M.East supply jitters
  Oil prices fell on Wednesday as data pointing to an unexpected build in U.S. inventories overshadowed continued supply disruptions in the Middle East after Saudi Arabia halted loadings at a major port due to Houthi attacks. Crude was also subject... Read more Oil prices fell on Wednesday as data pointing to an unexpected build in U.S. inventories overshadowed continued supply disruptions in the Middle East after Saudi Arabia halted loadings at a major port due to Houthi attacks.
  
  Crude was also subject to some profit-taking after appreciating sharply in recent weeks on worsening Houthi-Saudi hostilities and a continued standoff in the Strait of Hormuz.
  
  Brent oil futures fell 0.75% to $107.94 a barrel by 00:04 ET (04:04 GMT), while West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 1.1% to $104.70 a barrel.
  
  But bigger losses in crude were limited, as risk premium from dwindling Middle East supplies kept prices close to annual highs.
  
  Traders were wary of any big bets ahead of a closely watched Federal Reserve meeting later in the day, where the central bank is widely expected to hike interest rates.
  
  Get more insights on oil markets and the M.East war with InvestingPro-- with 55% for a limited time
  
  API data shows unexpected build in U.S. inventories
  Data from the American Petroleum Institute showed U.S. inventories unexpectedly grew 7.14 million barrels in the week to September 11, more than expectations for a 1.8 mb draw.
  
  The print usually heralds a similar reading from official inventory data, which is due later on Wednesday.
  
  But the API data indicated that despite global supply disruptions, stockpiles in the world’s largest fuel consumer remained steady.
  
  Still, the build could also stem from continued releases from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Data from the Energy Information Administration showed the SPR shrank by nearly 130 mb so far in 2026, to 285.36 million barrels.
  
  M.East supply disruptions persist
  Bigger losses in oil were largely limited by continued supply disruptions in the Middle East.
  
  Reports showed that Saudi Arabia had halted loading at its Yanbu port after the world’s biggest crude exporter shut its East-West pipeline amid attacks from Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis in recent weeks.
  
  The Houthis were seen launching more strikes on Saudi Arabia this week, with Riyadh stating early-Wednesday it had intercepted a drone south of the Holy City of Mecca.
  
  The Houthis had earlier this month secured key positions along the Red Sea, allowing them to strike tankers in the Bab el-Mandeb strait and further disrupt oil supplies in the region. Houthi aggression against the Saudis is expected to disrupt about 4% to 5% of global oil supplies.
  
  This came against the backdrop of a continued U.S.-Iran standoff in the Strait of Hormuz, which kept oil flows through the key waterway at a fraction of prewar levels.
  
  Brent was trading up nearly 4% this week after adding 8% apiece in the last two weeks, as markets priced for more supply disruptions. Source: Investing.com
- 2026-09-16
  The New ‘Mecca Alliance’ Warns Iran Over Houthi Attacks on Saudi Arabia
  Despite the official Iranian view reiterated last week that it “does not control the Houthis [in Yemen]”, it was senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders in Tehran who ordered the 8 September attacks on Saudi Arabia, while several IRGC... Read more Despite the official Iranian view reiterated last week that it “does not control the Houthis [in Yemen]”, it was senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders in Tehran who ordered the 8 September attacks on Saudi Arabia, while several IRGC officers and men on the ground in Yemen co-ordinated the strikes, a senior source in the European Union’s (EU) energy security complex exclusively told OilPrice.com. “The IRGC’s been funding, arming, and training the Houthis for years, and frequently advises it in live, high-profile missile strikes on the ground, as happened here,” he added. “It went well from their [Iran’s and the Houthis’] perspective, so there will be more, unless this new defence alliance succeeds in stopping it,” he added.
  
  This Makkah Defence Alliance was officially formed on 7 August this year, comprising Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan, and explicitly modelled around the core collective defence principle enshrined in NATO’s Article 5 -- that is, that an armed attack on one member shall be considered an attack against them all. Broadly speaking, Saudi Arabia brings deep financing ability and a vast network of regional intelligence contacts to the grouping. Turkey -- itself a member of NATO and tied into the U.S. and its key Western allies -- has advanced military hardware, high-tech defence equipment, and a well-established production line for artillery and drones to the alliance. And Pakistan provides a huge frontline military and nuclear weapons. Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif stated that its ‘full military capabilities’ would be available under their defence agreements. Subsequently, it was clarified that the Alliance pact is strictly defensive and conventional -- but it does still have the weapons.
  
  The timing of the Alliance’s formation was no accident, coming as it did after the perceived failure by its key allies in the Middle East of the U.S. to provide them with the sort of invulnerability from attack by Iran that they believed they were buying with billions of dollars’ worth of American defence equipment. These have included major repeated Iranian missile and drone attacks on Jordan, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman, including military, commercial, and energy sites. U.S. arms purchases by Saudi Arabia dramatically ramped up after the September 2019 attacks by the Houthis on several of its key oil installations, including its massive Abqaiq oil processing facility and Khurais oil field, as analysed in full in my latest book on the new global oil market order. The combined attacks caused the temporary suspension of 5.7 million barrels per day (bpd), equating to well over half of Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production capacity, and resulted in the biggest rise in oil prices in a single day ever to that point. The fact that even before the latest attacks on it on 8 September this year, Saudi Arabia had been hit several times by the Iran-backed Houthis, had catalysed Riyadh’s belief that it could no longer fully rely on the U.S. for its security and had to build a regional deterrent as well, formed of fellow Sunni Islamic countries.
  
  Given how successful the 8 September attacks against Saudi Arabia were from the Iranian and the Houthi perspective, it is highly likely that more have been planned, according to the EU security source. “Iran knows that [U.S. President Donald] Trump doesn’t want to see oil prices rise too much more ahead of the [3 November] Mid-Terms [elections], so hitting major oil targets like Saudi reminds him [Trump] of the leverage it [Iran] still has here,” he said. In fact, as also examined fully in in my latest book, historical data shows that every US$10 per barrel or so change in the price of crude oil results in around a 25-30 cent change in the price of a gallon of gasoline. And for every 1 cent that the average price per gallon of gasoline rises, more than US$1 billion or so per year in consumer spending is lost, so damaging the economy. The political importance of this is that since 1896, the sitting U.S. president and his party have won re-election 11 times out of 11 if the economy was not in recession within two years of an upcoming election. However, sitting U.S. presidents who went into a re-election campaign with the economy in recession won only once out of seven occasions. The same pattern pertains to mid-term elections too.
  
  “The recent attacks on Saudi Arabia also remind Washington, and the oil markets, that Iran also has further leverage with the Houthis, who could fully close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to all global shipping, having so far confined their blockade to Saudi vessels only,” he added. With severe disruption still ongoing to the Strait of Hormuz -- through which roughly 30% of the world's oil and about 20% of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) historically flowed -- any additional pressure on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait (through which up to 12% of the world’s oil and up to 10% of its LNG moved) could cause another dramatic spike in oil prices and perhaps catalyse a major military error from Trump. “It does appear for now that Trump is playing the long game of waiting for the Iranian regime to crumble as the new sanctions on the country and its supporters destroy the economy, but Iran has been dealing with these sorts of things for nearly fifty years, and in the meantime they can cause Trump a lot of damage, and still claim it’s winning,” he added.
  
  This may be where the new Makkah Defence Alliance proves its worth and, if not, its redundancy. Already, a senior source who works closely with Iraq’s oil ministry exclusively told OilPrice.com last week, Pakistan conveyed a warning to Tehran from Riyadh that the IRGC must stop the Houthis from making any further such attacks on Saudi Arabia. This followed Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif stating on Pakistani TV that attacks spilling into Saudi Arabia could trigger the new joint security arrangement involving Riyadh, Ankara and Islamabad. He reiterated the core guiding principle of the Alliance, saying: “An aggression on one country will be considered an aggression on all three countries.” He added: “There is no ambiguity or doubt... Unprovoked aggression or spillover... into Saudi Arabia will definitely make this agreement operational.” As of now, according to the EU and Iraqi sources, no definitive plan of retaliation has been made by the Alliance following the Houthi attacks on the Kingdom’s southern cities of Abha, Khamis Mushait, Jazan and Najran that reportedly wounded 73 people, including women and children. That said, they add, senior military figures from Pakistan and Turkey met with their Saudi counterparts after 8 September to work on a broad-based plan of action should it become necessary, which would be launched exclusively from Saudi Arabian territory and would not involve Pakistani military on the ground in the Kingdom in the first instance.
  
  For their part, the Houthis had earlier warned of a broad operation to be launched deep in Saudi territory, and they did indeed follow through. A lightning advance in recent days across the southern reaches of Yemen’s Tihamah coastal plain saw the Iran-backed group capture as much as 130 kilometres of the country’s Red Sea coast territory previously held by the anti-Houthi coalition known as the National Resistance. This now definitively places decisive control over both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in Iran’s hands, and multiple military and government sources have officially confirmed that the Houthis have successfully seized control of Perim Island (also known as Mayun Island), alongside several other key islands in the Red Sea. This gives the Houthis and Iran far greater leverage over the Red Sea/Suez Canal transit route than they had before, and shipping firms remain sceptical about earlier Houthi statements saying that maritime navigation in the region was “safe for all companies except for Saudi vessels, which have already been subject to a blockade”. In the meantime, following the Houthis’ earlier missile and drone attacks on Saudi Arabia, oil traders expect the Kingdom to run out of oil stocks for exports if it does not restart its East-West Pipeline that runs into the Red Sea port of Yanbu within days, affecting up to 4% of global oil supply. As it stands, nothing new has been heard from the Makkah Defence Alliance on the subject. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-09-16
  MABUX: Global bunker market may shift into a phase of irregular fluctuations on Sep. 16 amid Strait of Hormuz uncertainty.
  The MABUX World Bunker Index — a composite benchmark reflecting daily prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO, and MGO – maintained its upward trajectory on Sep. 15, rising for the seventh consecutive session amid persistent uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. 380... Read more The MABUX World Bunker Index — a composite benchmark reflecting daily prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO, and MGO – maintained its upward trajectory on Sep. 15, rising for the seventh consecutive session amid persistent uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.
  
  380 HSFO: USD/MT: 718.51 (+5.04)
  VLSFO: USD/MT: 874.13 (+6.43)
  MGO: USD/MT: 1 563.74 (+8.84)
  
  As of Sep. 15, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI), which monitors the spread between Market Bunker Prices (MBP) and the MABUX Digital Bunker Benchmark (DBP), indicated the following trends across the four major global bunkering hubs—Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston:
  
  • HSFO segment: Fujairah remained the only overcharged port, with its MDI premium widening by another $12. The other three hubs stayed in the undervaluation zone. MDI discounts widened by $7 in Rotterdam and $38 in Houston, while narrowing by $19 in Singapore. Singapore’s MDI moved closer to the 100% correlation mark between MBP and DBP, while Houston’s undervaluation remained above the $100 threshold.
  
  • VLSFO segment: Fujairah continued to be the only overpriced port, although its MDI premium narrowed by $3. The other three hubs stayed underpriced, with MDI discounts widening by $5 in Rotterdam, $10 in Singapore and $1 in Houston. Fujairah’s overvaluation remained above the $100 threshold.
  
  • MGO LS segment: All four ports remained in the underpricing zone. MDI discounts narrowed by $13 in Rotterdam, $22 in Singapore, $33 in Fujairah and $7 in Houston. Undervaluation levels in Rotterdam and Singapore remained above the $100 mark, while Fujairah moved closer to the 100% correlation mark between MBP and DBP.
  
  MABUX expects the global bunker market to enter a phase of irregular price fluctuations on Sep. 16, as persistent uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz continues to drive market volatility:
  380 HSFO: plus-minus 5-10 USD/MT, VLSFO: plus-minus 5-15 USD/MT, MGO LS: plus-minus 5–20 USD/MT.
  Source: MABUX
- 2026-09-16
  Saudi Oil Crisis Deepens as Aramco Suspends Yanbu Loadings
  Saudi Arabia suspends Yanbu oil loadings after halting its East-West pipeline, sending Brent back to $108. Asia’s Oil Crunch Sends Regional Benchmarks to Record Highs - Asia’s oil industry is facing a double whammy of supply shortages and better-than-expected... Read more Saudi Arabia suspends Yanbu oil loadings after halting its East-West pipeline, sending Brent back to $108.
  
  Asia’s Oil Crunch Sends Regional Benchmarks to Record Highs
  
  - Asia’s oil industry is facing a double whammy of supply shortages and better-than-expected demand, with crude differentials across the region gradually climbing towards record highs.
  
  - Futures prices on China’s Shanghai Futures Exchange rose to $138 per barrel on Tuesday, the highest reading on record, as Chinese refiners scramble to put their hands on available October supply.
  
  - Saudi Aramco’s announced halt in Yanbu loadings could see some recovery in exports from Saudi terminals in the Gulf, however these flows would be massively constrained by unprecedented freight rates.
  
  - Chartering a VLCC in the Persian Gulf now costs $30-32 per barrel, with war risk premia and additional insurance coverage added on top, forcing Middle Eastern producers to risk transiting Hormuz with their own fleet.
  
  - Asia is expected to see its crude demand dip by 1.5 million b/d this year, with demand destruction spearheaded by lower consumption in China as Asian benchmarks now consistently trend $15-20 per barrel above ICE Brent.
  
  Market Movers
  
  - Canada’s midstream giant Enbridge (TSO:ENB) announced it would acquire Blackstone-owned Tallgrass Energy’s oil business for $2.55 billion in cash, expanding its US business by buying a majority stake in the 460,000 b/d Pony Express Pipeline.
  
  - Venezuela’s state oil company PDVSA has restarted the fluid catalytic cracker of its 310,000 b/d Cardon refinery, greatly boosting the country’s gasoline output after the neighboring Amuay refinery started to ramp up runs, too.
  
  - Japan’s Organization for Metals and Energy Security (JOGMEC) signed its first emergency LNG supply deal with Malaysia’s Petronas, expanding its contractual coverage beyond standard term deals.
  
  - QatarEnergy is negotiating LNG supply deals with several US exporters – including but not limited to Venture Global, Cheniere and Woodside - seeking to conclude long-term deals through 2031 to replace capacity damaged by Iranian attacks.
  
  - US LNG developer Sempra Infrastructure has agreed to supply 0.8 mtpa of LNG from the 2nd phase of its Port Arthur LNG terminal in Texas to Brazil's state oil firm Petrobras (NYSE:PBR) for 20 years, starting from 2030.
  
  Tuesday, September 15, 2026
  
  First, there were Thursday rumours about strikes impacting Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline and flumes visible from satellite imagery. Then, just after the London closure of markets, Saudi Arabia announced Friday that it had halted pipeline transportation via its key Hormuz bypass, stoking fears of long-term damage to its midstream infrastructure. The vicious cycle of bad news from Saudi Arabia reached its apex today, as Saudi Aramco confirmed that loadings from the Red Sea port of Yanbu have been suspended, lifting ICE Brent back to $108 per barrel.
  
  China Runs Rebound as Fuel Exports Recover. China's crude throughput rose 11% month-on-month to 13.9 million b/d in August as refiners ramped up fuel exports after Beijing lifted its export ban, while inventories were drawn down by 639,000 b/d to support refinery supply and export demand.
  
  Houthis Send Saudi Oil Back to Hormuz. Saudi Arabia is seeking to raise exports through Hormuz after attacks halted its 7 million b/d East-West pipeline, halting the main wartime outlet via Yanbu, however replacement of Red Sea flows is hindered by record tanker rates near $1 million/day.
  
  Trump’s Eyes Fragile Russia-Ukraine Energy Truce. US President Trump said Ukraine and Russia agreed to halt strikes on energy infrastructure, but neither side fully confirmed a reciprocal deal after several previous deals collapsed within several days, however gasoil futures fell on the news.
  
  Iran Expands Hormuz Shipping Blacklist to 77 Vessels. Tehran’s Strait authority added 20 ships for breaching its northern-corridor rules, warning that listed vessels and ships conducting STS operations with them risk fines or confiscation, although Iran has yet to enforce the designations.
  
  EPA to Scrap Power Plant Carbon Rules. The EPA is expected to repeal Biden-era carbon standards for coal- and gas-fired power plants, including requirements for technologies such as carbon capture, revoking the legal basis for regulating greenhouse-gas emissions from the power sector.
  
  Ukraine Drone Hits Defy Calls for Energy Truce. Ukraine’s army stated that it struck the crude processing unit of Rosneft's 170,000 b/d Syzran refinery, underscoring continued attacks on Russian energy infrastructure despite U.S. claims of a mutual halt to strikes on critical energy assets.
  
  Thailand and Malaysia Boost Key Gas Hub. State oil companies Petronas and PTT have signed a new 35-year PSC covering Block A-18-01 in the Malaysia-Thailand Joint Development Area, extending a project that supplies about 700 MMcf/d of gas shared equally between the two countries.
  
  Saudi Pipeline Woes Reach European Refiners. Saudi Aramco cancelled some late-September crude cargoes for European term buyers after the halt of the East-West pipeline, the first supply impact of Houthi attacks as shipping disruptions constrain both the Red Sea and Gulf export routes.
  
  US Eyes Deep-Sea Permits for Critical Minerals. The Trump administration signaled it could approve the first U.S. deep-sea mining permits within months, aiming to secure access to seabed deposits rich in battery and defense-critical minerals as Washington seeks to reduce dependence on China.
  
  Libyan Protests Trigger Force Majeure Threat. Operations were suspended at three fields in Libya after members of the Petroleum Facilities Guard closed a valve on the Hamada–Zawiya crude pipeline, prompting NOC to warn it may declare force majeure if the disruption persists or spreads.
  
  UAE Turns Iraqi Discounts into Trading Edge. ADNOC reportedly agreed to buy 72 million Iraqi barrels for August–September at discounts reaching $27 a barrel, using its tanker fleet and Fujairah access to exploit wartime dislocations even though daily Hormuz transits remain in single digits.
  
  White House Sanctions Russia’s 2nd Largest Bank. The US imposed Iran-related sanctions on Russia’s state-owned bank VTB (already excluded from the dollar system over Ukraine), accusing it of using rouble-rial settlement channels for trade with Tehran and ties with sanctioned Iranian lenders.
  
  China’s Mine Safety Push Slashes Output. China produced 361.82 million tonnes in August, down 7.7% year on year but up from July’s 343.21 million tonnes as Beijing intensified inspections after another gas explosion last month, with the August 14 blast killing 7 people in Hunan province.
  
  Senegal Turns to Eni to Revive Offshore Exploration. Senegal signed an agreement with Italian oil major ENI (BIT:ENI) to launch preliminary studies across five offshore blocks, seeking to restart exploration as the new deal underscores ENI’s role as the leading West African drilling specialist.
  
  Dangote’s $49 Billion Refinery Goes Public. Dangote launched Africa’s largest IPO this week, offering roughly 3% of its Lagos refinery to raise $1.6 billion—or $2.1 billion if oversubscribed— as the Nigerian downstream giant eyes the doubling of its capacity to 1.4 million b/d by 2029. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-09-16
  U.S. Diesel Prices on Track for Record Year
  Diesel prices in the U.S. just climbed above the previous weekly record set in 2022, and the 2026 annual-average record is now within striking distance. Gasoline prices, while still elevated, are unlikely at this point to set a new annual record. The... Read more Diesel prices in the U.S. just climbed above the previous weekly record set in 2022, and the 2026 annual-average record is now within striking distance. Gasoline prices, while still elevated, are unlikely at this point to set a new annual record.
  
  The latest EIA data sharpen that divergence. For September 7, on-highway diesel jumped 36.8 cents to $5.967 per gallon nationally, surpassing the previous nominal weekly high of $5.810 set in June 2022. Regular gasoline rose 8.6 cents to $4.157, still well below its $5.006 weekly peak in June 2022. That could leave 2026 with a new record annual average for diesel, while gasoline remains below the record it set in 2022.
  
  Gasoline usually dominates the public discussion because it is the price most drivers see every week. Diesel is less visible to consumers, but it is embedded throughout the economy in trucking, agriculture, construction, rail, and other commercial activity. When diesel prices remain unusually high, the effects can extend well beyond the filling station.
  
  The Math Behind The Record
  
  According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, on-highway diesel set its nominal annual-average record in 2022 at $4.989 per gallon. Regular gasoline also set its record that year, averaging $3.951 per gallon.
  
  Using EIA’s 36 weekly price observations through September 7, I calculate a 2026 year-to-date average of about $4.895 per gallon for diesel and $3.772 for regular gasoline. That leaves 16 weekly observations for the rest of the year. To exceed the 2022 record, diesel would need to average about $5.20 per gallon over those remaining weeks. Gasoline would need to average about $4.35.
  
  Fuel
  2022 annual record
  2026 avg. through Sept. 7
  Needed final 16 weeks
  Sept. 7 price
  Diesel
  $4.989
  $4.895
  $5.20
  $5.967
  Regular gasoline
  $3.951
  $3.772
  $4.35
  $4.157
  Source: EIA; author calculations using weekly national retail prices through Sept. 7, 2026.
  
  The latest EIA reading makes the annual-record math more favorable for diesel. If the September 7 prices simply remained unchanged through year-end, diesel would finish 2026 at roughly $5.22 per gallon, comfortably above the 2022 record. Gasoline would finish around $3.89, still below its record.
  
  That means diesel could fall by roughly 77 cents from the September 7 reading and still average enough over the remaining weeks to set a record. Gasoline would need to rise by about 20 cents from its latest reading and then maintain that higher level through a part of the year when prices normally face downward seasonal pressure.
  
  Why 2022 Was So Expensive
  
  The 2022 records were not caused by a single event. The petroleum market was already tight before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The pandemic had disrupted oil production and refining around the world, some capacity permanently closed, inventories were low, and demand was recovering as economies reopened. EIA documented the tightening diesel market before the invasion.
  
  Russia’s invasion then hit a market with very little spare room. Crude oil prices surged amid uncertainty over Russian supply, sanctions, and private-sector decisions to reduce purchases of Russian energy. Gasoline demand strengthened into the spring and summer, while refinery output and inventories struggled to keep pace. Regular gasoline ultimately moved above $5 per gallon nationally for a time in June, as EIA later documented.
  
  Diesel faced an even tighter situation. Russia was a major supplier of diesel and other distillates to the global market, particularly Europe. The loss and redirection of those barrels tightened an already constrained market, while U.S. distillate inventories remained below normal. By October 2022, EIA reported only about 25 days of distillate supply in U.S. inventories, compared with a 2017-2021 average of 34 days. High crude prices were only part of the diesel story. The world was also short of refining capacity and distillate inventories.
  
  Why Diesel Is So Expensive In 2026
  
  There are similarities between 2022 and 2026. Once again, a geopolitical shock has pushed crude oil and refined-product prices higher. This time, the pressure has centered on the conflict involving Iran and constraints on energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil transit points. EIA has cited reduced shipments through the strait as a major source of pressure on global oil inventories and prices.
  
  But diesel has also been hit by product-specific problems. Ukrainian attacks have damaged Russian refineries and constrained Russian fuel exports, while Middle Eastern refinery and product flows have also been disrupted. In August, Reuters reported that the U.S. diesel crack spread, the difference between diesel futures and crude oil futures, exceeded $100 per barrel for the first time. That is an extraordinary signal of how tight the refined-product market had become.
  
  This is not primarily a story of U.S. refiners failing to run. Reuters reported refinery utilization at 98% in the week ending August 28, the highest level since 2018. Yet EIA showed total U.S. distillate inventories at only about 104.2 million barrels, while East Coast stocks fell to 19.3 million barrels. Refiners are running hard, but the global market is still pulling strongly on available U.S. distillate supplies.
  
  Gasoline Is Entering Its Slow Season
  
  Gasoline has also been expensive in 2026, but it now faces a seasonal pattern that makes a new annual record less likely. Prices typically rise during the spring and summer as driving increases and refiners switch to more expensive summer-grade fuel. After the summer driving season, demand generally declines and refiners can return to less expensive winter-grade gasoline. EIA notes that gasoline refining margins normally ease in the fall.
  
  Diesel tends to receive more seasonal support in the fall. Diesel powers much of the equipment used for the agricultural harvest and the trucks that move those crops. EIA has found that U.S. distillate consumption increased by an average of about 4% from September to October over the five years from 2019 through 2023. Winter then adds heating-oil demand, particularly in the Northeast.
  
  That seasonal divergence is important to the record calculation. Gasoline needs to average roughly $4.35 per gallon for the rest of the year, above the September 7 price of $4.157, during a period when prices normally ease. Diesel needs about $5.20, nearly 77 cents below the latest EIA price of $5.967, while entering a season that typically provides additional demand support.
  
  The Record Is Not Guaranteed
  
  None of this makes a diesel record inevitable. A ceasefire or meaningful restoration of energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz could bring crude and refined-product prices down quickly. Restored refinery operations in Russia or the Middle East could ease the distillate squeeze, and a sharp economic slowdown could weaken freight and industrial diesel demand.
  
  August STEO projected a 2026 annual average retail diesel price of $4.85 per gallon and regular gasoline at $3.78, leaving both below their 2022 records. But that forecast was completed on August 6, before the late-August surge in diesel prices and before the September 7 reading set a new nominal weekly high at $5.967. I would not call a diesel annual-average record a certainty, but the current arithmetic puts it clearly within reach.
  
  The Big Picture
  
  The comparison between 2022 and 2026 is a useful reminder that there is no single “fuel price.” Crude oil is the largest common input, so a geopolitical shock can push gasoline and diesel higher at the same time. But refinery capacity, inventories, trade flows, product demand, and seasonality can cause the two fuels to behave very differently after that initial shock.
  
  In 2022, rebounding demand, constrained refining capacity, low inventories, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine drove both gasoline and diesel to record annual averages. In 2026, another geopolitical disruption has again pushed crude prices higher, but the more acute shortage is in distillates. Based on the September 7 reading and the seasonal path ahead, diesel has already set a weekly record and now has a credible path to a record annual average as well. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-09-16
  U.S. Oil Inventories Jump as Cushing Stocks Keep Falling
  The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that crude oil inventories in the United States rose by a very large 7.14 million barrels in the week ending September 11. In the week prior, US crude oil inventories fell by 300,000 barrels. Commercial... Read more The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that crude oil inventories in the United States rose by a very large 7.14 million barrels in the week ending September 11. In the week prior, US crude oil inventories fell by 300,000 barrels.
  
  Commercial crude oil inventories excluding the SPR have lost just over 41 million barrels over the last 22 weeks, with US crude inventories up nearly 10 million for the year, according to API data, kept in check by draws from the SPR.
  
  For the week ending September 11, another 400,000 barrels left the SPR to aid commercial inventories, bringing the new total inventory held in the SPR to 285 million barrels—a level that is 446 million barrels shy of maximum capacity.
  
  The generally accepted operational minimum for oil in the SPR is between 250-300 million barrels, below which the reserve may find it difficult to pump and process oil efficiently.
  
  US production for the week ending Sept 4 rose to 13.947 million bpd, up from 13.862 in the week prior, and up 452,000 bpd from a year earlier.
  
  At 4:13 pm ET on Wednesday, Brent crude was trading up on the day at $108.68 (+2.84%), a more than $7 per barrel gain week over week.
  
  WTI was also trading up on the day, by $3.83 per barrel (+3.70%) at $107.38, up roughly $11 per barrel from this time last week.
  
  Gasoline inventories rose 1.46 million barrels in the week ending September 11. In the week prior, gasoline inventories fell by 1.9 million barrels. In the week prior, gasoline inventories were 5% below the five-year average for this time of year, according to the latest EIA data.
  
  Distillate inventories gained 1.61 million barrels, on top of the 2-million-barrel gain in the week prior. Distillate inventories were 13% below the five-year average heading into this reporting period, the latest EIA data shows.
  
  Cushing inventory—the inventory kept at the delivery hub for the WTI Crude futures contract—fell by 246,000 barrels over the reporting period after falling by 300,000 barrels in the week prior. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-09-16
  ADNOC Scoops Up Iraqi Crude at $25 Per Barrel Discount
  ADNOC is buying tens of millions of barrels of deeply discounted Iraqi crude, processing much of it at home and freeing more of its own barrels for export through a route that avoids the Strait of Hormuz. The UAE producer agreed to buy 32 million barrels... Read more ADNOC is buying tens of millions of barrels of deeply discounted Iraqi crude, processing much of it at home and freeing more of its own barrels for export through a route that avoids the Strait of Hormuz.
  
  The UAE producer agreed to buy 32 million barrels of Iraqi crude for August at discounts of $24.90 to $27 per barrel and another 40 million barrels for September, according to sources cited by Reuters. September purchases included 10 million barrels discounted by $18 and another 30 million barrels discounted by $25.
  
  Actual liftings have been smaller because Iraq is still struggling to get crude out.
  
  ADNOC was allocated 32 million barrels for August but lifted about 20 million barrels after export constraints limited availability, one source said. It has lifted another 14 million barrels so far in September.
  
  Iraq exported just 1.374 million bpd in July before recovering to 2.354 million bpd in August, according to Kpler. September exports are running around 2 million bpd.
  
  Iran last month granted some Iraqi tankers permission to pass through Hormuz following requests from Baghdad. Iraq has little shipping capacity of its own and historically moved most of its crude through the Persian Gulf, leaving its barrels particularly exposed to the disruption.
  
  Those constraints are creating some extraordinary discounts.
  
  ADNOC has considerably better logistics. The UAE can move its own crude through the pipeline to Fujairah, where tankers load outside Hormuz. UAE crude exports have risen from 2.871 million bpd in July to 3.236 million bpd so far in September.
  
  ADNOC plans to run much of the Iraqi crude through its Ruwais refinery and sell more UAE crude into the international market, according to one Reuters source.
  
  Other buyers have spotted the bargain. PetroChina, Zhenhua Oil, TotalEnergies, Vitol, Trafigura, Mercuria and Cathay Petroleum have also purchased Iraqi barrels offered at steep discounts.
  
  Iraq wants to raise production from roughly 4 million bpd before the war to between 8 million and 10 million bpd within six years. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-09-16
  US Energy Secretary: Saudi Pipeline Could Be Back in Service Within Days
  Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline could be back in service within days, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Tuesday, offering the first relatively concrete timeline for restoring a route that had been moving 4 million to 5 million barrels per... Read more Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline could be back in service within days, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Tuesday, offering the first relatively concrete timeline for restoring a route that had been moving 4 million to 5 million barrels per day around the largely closed Strait of Hormuz.
  
  The 1,200-kilometer pipeline was shut after an attack last week damaged the system. Wright said Saudi officials were still assessing the damage, but expected repairs to be measured in days rather than weeks.
  
  The East-West line has been carrying roughly 4% to 5% of global oil supply to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, giving Saudi Arabia an outlet while traffic through Hormuz remains severely constrained. The outage could last several weeks, according to earlier estimates, raising the possibility that export-ready inventories at Yanbu would soon be depleted.
  
  Some of that disruption has already reached buyers.
  
  Saudi Aramco has canceled or delayed late-September crude cargoes to several European refiners. Poland’s Orlen has been buying North Sea crude and seeking U.S. WTI Midland and Kazakhstan’s CPC Blend after Saudi deliveries slipped. No Saudi crude had departed Yanbu since September 11, according to Vortexa data cited by Argus.
  
  Saudi crude supply had already fallen to 6 million bpd in August, down 2.3 million bpd on the month and the lowest level in more than three decades, according to the International Energy Agency.
  
  The pipeline shutdown pushed crude prices higher again Monday and Tuesday, with Brent climbing above $108 per barrel as traders priced in another potential loss of supply.
  
  Wright said Saudi Arabia is also trying to move more crude through Hormuz with U.S. military assistance.
  
  A restart within days would restore one of the few high-capacity routes still available to move Gulf crude without relying on the Strait of Hormuz. It would also arrive before Yanbu inventories become the next constraint. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-09-16
  Libya Threatens Force Majeure as Oil Guards Shut Fields
  Libya’s National Oil Corporation is threatening to declare force majeure after members of the security force assigned to protect the country’s oil infrastructure shut a pipeline valve and halted production at two fields. Production has stopped completely... Read more Libya’s National Oil Corporation is threatening to declare force majeure after members of the security force assigned to protect the country’s oil infrastructure shut a pipeline valve and halted production at two fields.
  
  Production has stopped completely at the Hamada and Tahara oilfields and at a pumping station after members of the Petroleum Facilities Guard closed a valve on the main Hamada-Zawiya crude pipeline, NOC said Tuesday.
  
  The shutdown could spread.
  
  The Petroleum Facilities Guard said it would impose partial production cuts for one week at several additional fields, including Wafa, Al-Khamsa and El Feel. A full shutdown would follow if its demands are not met.
  
  The Guard wants to be transferred financially and administratively from Libya’s defense ministry to the National Oil Corporation and has called for a timetable to complete the move.
  
  NOC said it could declare force majeure if the closed valve is not reopened or if similar shutdowns hit other oilfields.
  
  Libya has been here before. Political groups, armed factions and workers have repeatedly used oilfields, pipelines and terminals as leverage since the 2011 uprising that toppled Muammar Gaddafi.
  
  The latest disruption lands just as Libya is trying to push production much higher.
  
  Output has climbed to roughly 1.4 million barrels per day, its highest level in more than a decade. NOC is targeting 1.6 million bpd by the end of 2026 and 2 million bpd by the early 2030s.
  
  Getting there could require $36 billion to $40 billion in foreign investment, according to NOC Chairman Masoud Suleman.
  
  International companies have already started moving back in. Libya signed exploration and production-sharing agreements this year with Repsol, Turkish Petroleum, Eni, QatarEnergy and MOL following its first major licensing round in 17 years. BP, Shell, Exxon and Chevron have also been pursuing a return.
  
  NOC received a $2 billion allocation under Libya’s 2026 budget to support its production plans.
  
  The problem is much older than the investment push: fields capable of producing more oil are still vulnerable to whoever controls the valve. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-09-16
  Saudi Aramco Cancels European Crude Cargoes as Key Pipeline Stays Shut
  Saudi Aramco has canceled or delayed crude deliveries to European refiners after the shutdown of the kingdom’s East-West pipeline cut into one of its remaining routes around the Strait of Hormuz. At least three European refiners have had late-September... Read more Saudi Aramco has canceled or delayed crude deliveries to European refiners after the shutdown of the kingdom’s East-West pipeline cut into one of its remaining routes around the Strait of Hormuz.
  
  At least three European refiners have had late-September cargoes canceled or pushed as far out as November, according to market sources cited by Argus. Two more expect notices covering September supplies.
  
  The 7-million-bpd East-West pipeline has been offline since a September 10 attack. The pipeline carries crude from eastern Saudi oil fields to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, bypassing Hormuz.
  
  One market source told Argus that every Saudi cargo scheduled for the final 10 days of September could be at risk. The same source estimated that Yanbu had roughly five days of crude inventories remaining. Argus could not independently confirm that estimate, and Aramco declined to comment.
  
  In August, Bloomberg had reported that Aramco would supply full contractual crude volumes to at least three European refiners for September.
  
  But no Saudi crude has departed Yanbu since September 11, according to Vortexa data cited by Argus. Saudi exports from Egypt’s Sidi Kerir terminal averaged about 1.95 million bpd during the first two weeks of September. Arrivals at Ain Sukhna averaged 1.40 million bpd.
  
  Crude exported through Yanbu can move to Egypt’s Ain Sukhna terminal and across the 2.5-million-bpd SUMED pipeline to Sidi Kerir on the Mediterranean.
  
  Poland’s Orlen is already buying replacements.
  
  Orlen purchased North Sea grades including Grane, Johan Sverdrup and Johan Castberg through spot tenders and sought offers for U.S. WTI Midland and Kazakhstan’s CPC Blend, traders told Reuters. At least four September tanker fixtures from Sidi Kerir to Gdansk have failed.
  
  Aramco supplies roughly 40% of the crude processed by Orlen, which operates refineries in Poland, Lithuania and the Czech Republic. Orlen said its refineries continue receiving feedstock.
  
  The East-West line had become one of Saudi Arabia’s most important alternatives to constrained Persian Gulf exports. Its shutdown is now reaching European term customers in the form of missing barrels. Source: Oilprice.com

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