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MABUX ARA LNG Bunker Index
Port LNG$/mton MGO LS$/mton Date
ARA
1 016.00
0.00
1 215.00
+5.00
May 11
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Port	LNG$/mton	MGO LS$/mton	Date
ARA	1 016.00	0.00	1 215.00	+5.00	May 11

MABUX Global Bunker Index

380HSFO$/mton		VLS FO$/mton		MGO LS$/mton		Date
767.33	+0.44	930.21	+6.60	1 393.46	+12.70	May 11

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MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI)

Correlation between market bunker prices (MBP) and MABUX Digital Bunker Price Benchmark (DBP)

All Indexes in $/mton	380HSFO			VLS FO			MGO LS			Date
All Indexes in $/mton	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	Date
Rotterdam	681	709	-28	797	787	+10	1 215	1 333	-118	May 11
Singapore	702	736	-34	801	877	-76	1 150	1 326	-176	May 11
Fujairah	704	684	+20	883	846	+37	1 505	1 389	+116	May 11
Houston	690	708	-18	830	826	+4	1 186	1 241	-55	May 11

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Digital Bunker Prices
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Analytical Section
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Latest News
- 2026-05-11
  EC awards over €1 billion to hydrogen production projects
  The European Commission (EC) has selected nine hydrogen production projects, spread across seven countries in the European Economic Area (EEA), that will share in over €1 billion’s worth of funding from the European Innovation Fund. As reported by... Read more
- 2026-05-11
  SGMF partnering with Ofiniti on LNG bunker compatibility assessments
  NGO SGMF has announced it is partnering with bunker platform Ofiniti to simplify and standardise LNG bunker compatibility assessments. In a statement issued last week, SGMF, which aims to promote safety and industry best practice in the use of gaseous... Read more
- 2026-05-11
  Aramco posts $33.6 billion Q1 adjusted net income
  Saudi Arabia’s Aramco has reported an adjusted net income of $33.6 billion for the first quarter (Q1) of 2026, which was up by more than 26% from the $26.6 billion posted in Q1 2025. In a statement issued yesterday (10 May), Aramco President & CEO... Read more
- 2026-05-11
  FLEX Commodities opens Seoul office
  FLEX Commodities has announced the opening of a new Seoul office and the appointment of a South Korea leadership team. In a social media post today (11 May), FLEX said the South Korea entity registered at Seoul Finance Center is authorised to trade... Read more
- 2026-05-11
  Orcan Energy installs waste heavy recovery system on Hagland vessel
  Waste heat recovery specialist Orcan Energy has installed and commissioned a 100 kW efficiency PACK system based on the Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) aboard a vessel operated by Norway’s Hagland Shipping. In a statement issued last week, Orcan Energy... Read more
- 2026-05-11
  Hapag-Lloyd and Kuehne+Nagel announce emissions-reduction partnership
  Hapag-Lloyd and Kuehne+Nagel have announced that they are looking to ‘further strengthen their long-standing partnership’ by, ‘for the first time, collaborating on emission-reduced ocean transport solutions’. In a statement issued today (11 May), the... Read more
- 2026-05-11
  Oil rises $4 after Trump rejects Iran’s response to US peace proposal
  Oil prices rallied on Monday, a day after President Donald Trump said Iran’s response to a U.S. proposal was "unacceptable," raising supply fears as the Strait of Hormuz stayed largely closed, which kept the global market tight. Brent crude futures climbed... Read more Oil prices rallied on Monday, a day after President Donald Trump said Iran’s response to a U.S. proposal was "unacceptable," raising supply fears as the Strait of Hormuz stayed largely closed, which kept the global market tight.
  Brent crude futures climbed $4.16 or 4.11% to $105.45 a barrel at 0340 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was at $99.80 a barrel, up $4.38, or 4.59%.
  Last week, both contracts recorded 6% weekly losses on hopes for an imminent end to the 10-week-old conflict that would allow oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
  "The oil market continues to trade like a geopolitical headline machine, with prices swinging sharply based on every comment, rejection, or warning coming from Washington and Tehran," said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova.
  Trump is scheduled to arrive in Beijing on Wednesday and is expected to discuss Iran among other topics with Chinese President Xi Jinping, according to U.S. officials.
  "Market attention now shifts squarely to President Trump’s visit to China this week," IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said in a note.
  "There is hope he can persuade Beijing to leverage its influence over Iran to push for a comprehensive ceasefire and a resolution to the ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz."
  The world has lost about 1 billion barrels of oil over the past two months and energy markets will take time to stabilise even if flows resume, Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said on Sunday.
  
  Another two tankers carrying crude exited the Strait of Hormuz last week with trackers switched off to avoid Iranian attacks, Kpler shipping data showed, underscoring a rising trend to sustain Middle East oil exports.
  "Even if the acute oil shock fades by late 2026, the ongoing risk of renewed disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, depleted inventories and weaker policy coordination is expected to keep a geopolitical risk premium embedded in prices," ING analysts wrote in a note on Monday.
  They expected Brent to remain above $90 per barrel through 2026 and around $80 to $85 per barrel into 2027 as demand growth resumes and inventories are gradually rebuilt. Source: Reuters/Investing.com
- 2026-05-11
  $7 Billion In Perfectly Timed Oil Bets Sparks Insider Trading Fears
  Last month, we reported that over $1 billion in "perfectly timed" wagers, spanning both traditional oil futures and digital prediction markets, accurately anticipated major military and diplomatic shifts linked to developments in the Iran-US war minutes... Read more Last month, we reported that over $1 billion in "perfectly timed" wagers, spanning both traditional oil futures and digital prediction markets, accurately anticipated major military and diplomatic shifts linked to developments in the Iran-US war minutes before they were publicly announced, raising major suspicion of insider trading. Many suspicious accounts were newly created and only traded on specific Iran-related events with a win rate of up to 93%. Well, the final numbers are in, and the initial report might only have been the tip of the iceberg. While previous reports focused on ~$2.6 billion in front-month crude contracts, a broader analysis by Reuters has revealed that total wagers, including bets on Brent, WTI, European diesel, and U.S. gasoline futures, hit $7 billion. According to an analysis by Reuters, the giant bets were executed in large blocks on four specific days, often 15 to 20 minutes before announcements that triggered double-digit declines in oil prices.
  
  The first giant trade was executed on March 23 around 10:49–10:50 GMT, roughly 15-20 minutes before an 11:05 GMT announcement on Truth Social by President Trump, which stated a delay to planned strikes on Iranian power and energy infrastructure. The announcement followed a period of intense volatility in the Strait of Hormuz, with the delay intended to allow for negotiations. According to LSEG data cited by Reuters, traders executed positions on 20,000 lots of Brent and WTI futures, along with additional gasoline and gasoil futures, totaling roughly $2.2 billion.
  
  The announcement triggered an oil price crash, with crude futures falling by as much as 15%, marking one of the largest intraday drops on record. The second major trade took place on April 7 whereby sell orders on oil and gasoline futures totalling approximately $2.12 billion were executed in a single minute, immediately before a surprise announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. The trades occurred while the market was in a thin-volume, post-settlement phase, with crude futures plummeting by roughly 15% to below $100 a barrel by the start of the next trading session.
  
  The third wager was placed on April 17 when roughly $2 billion of oil futures, equivalent to ~7,990 lots of Brent, WTI and gasoline, were sold between 1224 and 1225 GMT minutes before Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced the Strait of Hormuz was "completely open" for commercial traffic. Hardly surprisingly, crude oil prices plummeted, with Brent crude falling around 9-10% to approximately $88–$90 per barrel while WTI fell as much as 11-12% to around $82-$83 per barrel. The final trade was executed on April 21roughly $830 million in oil futures (Brent and WTI contracts) were sold in a massive, well-timed trade 15 minutes before U.S. President Donald Trump announced an indefinite ceasefire extension with Iran. The trades occurred between 19:54 and 19:56 GMT, shortly before the 20:10 GMT announcement. Similar to previous trades, the sales occurred during post-settlement hours after 18:30 GMT when liquidity is typically low, making such a high-volume sale unusual. Whereas oil prices were on a downtrend around the time Trump broke the news, Brent crude experienced an immediate downward dip following this specific announcement.
  
  That said, the suspicious oil price trades linked to the war in Iran might have begun weeks earlier. Previously, we reported that an unusual influx of roughly 150 accounts on Polymarket placed hundreds of bets totaling over $855,000 accurately predicted the night of February 27 that the U.S. would strike Iran within 24 hours. Analytics firm Bubblemaps identified that many of these accounts were newly created in February and focused specifically on predicting U.S. strikes on Iran. An anonymous user operating under the handle "Magamyman" turned an initial investment of about $87,000 into over $533,000 by betting on the "removal" of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei just 71 minutes before news of the strikes became public.
  
  Analysts and lawmakers, including Senator Elizabeth Warren, have flagged these trades as likely resulting from insider leaks.
  
  Whereas there are reports that the Department of Justice (DOJ) & CFTC are actively investigating whether traders improperly obtained non-public information tied to military and diplomatic developments, trying to rein in the illegal practice might be a wild goose chase. Indeed, Craig Holman, a government affairs lobbyist for Public Citizen, has expressed significant skepticism regarding the ability or willingness of the CFTC to investigate, pointing to significant departures of investigative officers while enforcement at its flagship Chicago office has dropped to zero. Additionally, market experts have warned that the surge in online prediction markets and digital betting, combined with complex legal definitions, makes detecting insider trading significantly harder. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi allow users to bet on real-world events-leading to cases where individuals with material non-public information (MNPI) can make large, profitable trades shortly before news breaks. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-05-11
  Oil Market Runs Down Safety Cushion as Supply Shock Worsens
  The last tankers out of the Persian Gulf are reaching their destinations. Strategic reserves are being drained to make up for lost Middle East supply and keep a lid on prices. But there is a problem with this: an emergency response to a crisis is by definition... Read more The last tankers out of the Persian Gulf are reaching their destinations. Strategic reserves are being drained to make up for lost Middle East supply and keep a lid on prices. But there is a problem with this: an emergency response to a crisis is by definition unsustainable.
  
  Analysts and energy industry executives are warning that the longer the war in the Middle East continues, the worse the supply situation will become. Global oil inventories are falling at a record pace, media reported earlier this week, with one Kpler analyst noting that “inventory support remains finite and cannot sustainably offset prolonged disruptions.”
  
  What makes the problem especially grave is that the crisis hit at a time when refiners normally build inventories ahead of peak demand season in the northern hemisphere. Summer is peak driving season. It is also active farming season, and air travel is at a peak, as well – normally. This summer is likely to be different as the price spike resulting from the Middle East crisis will undoubtedly hurt demand, and not only in Asia, where the shortages are already being felt.
  
  If one only follows oil prices on the futures market, the signs of a crisis already unfolding might get missed. But in the physical world, the shortages are already materializing, and they are likely to remain for at least several months, according to various sources from the energy industry and the analytical sector.
  
  “Even if the conflict, and I hope so, will end in the month of May, we would exit the conflict with clearly some very low inventories,” TotalEnergies’ chief executive Patrick Pouyanne said most recently, noting that per the company’s estimates, the world has been drawing oil from stockpiles at a rate of between 10 and 13 million barrels daily. This comes in at a total of 500 million barrels already drawn from global inventories since the start of the war, Reuters reported, citing the executive.
  
  Some are even more pessimistic about the state of global inventories: Rystad Energy has estimated a total supply loss of some 600 million barrels since the start of March. This means that even if tanker traffic in the Persian Gulf returns to normal at the end of the current month, the global oil supply loss would range between 1.2 billion and 2 billion barrels. This amount is equal to between 16% and 27% of pre-war supply, Rystad’s chief economist Claudio Galimberti said, as quoted by Reuters.
  
  This is potentially problematic because the drawdown comes from inventories that were already significantly lower than five years ago. Back in 2021, the world had over 90 days’ worth of demand in inventories. Since then, this has dropped to below 80 days’ worth, and that drop happened in 2022. Since 2022, inventories have been trending even lower, according to data from several institutions, including the IEA, Kpler, and Goldman Sachs, as compiled by Reuters.
  
  The publication devised three scenarios for the war in the Middle East, and in all of them, global oil inventories drop lower towards 2027, even in the benign scenario where hostilities end between now and mid-June, which seems increasingly unlikely. In the worst-case scenario, with tanker traffic remaining disrupted until the end of June or beyond, global inventories could drop to close to 70 days’ worth of demand.
  
  Of course, market forces are already doing their job, with surging prices hitting demand. Asian oil imports in April were down by 30% from a year ago, reaching the lowest in a decade, according to Kpler data that Reuters cited this week. This is both because supply is scarcer than it was at the start of the year and because prices are higher, making some buyers think twice.
  
  The longer the crisis extends in time, the more palpable the effect of scarcity on prices and, consequently, demand is going to become. Europe is already facing a shortage of jet fuel, with airlines canceling future flights. Asia is struggling with a shortage of naphtha, an essential feedstock for plastics production. Even the United States is experiencing a strong crude oil inventory drawdown that is depleting its own supply shock cushion in both crude and fuels. As of May 1, U.S. gasoline stocks were at 219.8 million barrels, the EIA said last week, which is 4% below the five-year average and the lowest since 2014 for this time of year.
  
  Meanwhile, the prospect of a swift end to the hostilities remains distant, with the U.S. and Iran resuming mutual strikes despite a ceasefire and reports from the U.S. side that talks are ongoing. The latest from the Persian Gulf is Iran accusing the U.S. of violating the ceasefire with its latest strikes, while the U.S. itself accused Iran of firing on its Navy, to which the latest strikes were a response. The two continue trading peace proposals back and forth, but nothing productive has yet come out of this.
  
  What all this implies is that the chances of an adverse scenario materializing instead of any semblance of a best-case development are growing with each passing day. And this, in turn, means that the world’s oil supply is going to melt further.
  
  Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-05-11
  MABUX: Global bunker market to extend upward momentum on May 11 amid Iran-US tensions in Hormuz Strait.
  The MABUX World Bunker Index — a composite benchmark reflecting daily prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO, and MGO — showed slight downward movement on May 08: 380 HSFO: USD/MT: 766.89 (-3.17) VLSFO: USD/MT 923.61 (-0.12) MGO: USD/MT 1 380.76 (-1.66) As... Read more The MABUX World Bunker Index — a composite benchmark reflecting daily prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO, and MGO — showed slight downward movement on May 08:
  
  380 HSFO: USD/MT: 766.89 (-3.17)
  VLSFO: USD/MT 923.61 (-0.12)
  MGO: USD/MT 1 380.76 (-1.66)
  
  As of May 08, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI). which measures the spread between Market Bunker Prices (MBP) and the MABUX Digital Bunker Benchmark (DBP), recorded the following dynamics across the four major global bunkering hubs: Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston:
  
  • HSFO segment: Fujairah remained the only overcharged port, with the premium widening by $4. The other three hubs continued to be undercharged: discounts narrowed by $19 in Rotterdam and by $13 in Singapore, while Houston’s underpricing widened by $3.
  
  • VLSFO segment: Rotterdam moved into the overcharge zone, joining Fujairah and Houston. Overpricing margins increased by $17 in Rotterdam and by $4 in Fujairah, while easing by $16 in Houston. Singapore remained the sole undercharged port, with its discount widening by $6. Houston’s MDI moved closer to full correlation between MBP and DBP.
  
  • MGO LS segment: Rotterdam, Singapore, and Houston continued to be undercharged. Underpricing narrowed by $38 in Rotterdam and by $32 in Singapore, while widening by $4 in Houston. Fujairah remained the only overcharged port, with its premium surging by $57. MDI values in Singapore and Fujairah stayed above the $100 threshold, while Rotterdam fell below this level.
  
  MABUX expects the global bunker market to maintain a firm upward trajectory on May 11, supported by mounting geopolitical tensions between Iran and the United States in the Strait of Hormuz: plus 2-7 USD/MT, VLSFO: plus 2–8 USD/MT, MGO LS: plus 10–20 USD/MT.
  Source: MABUX

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