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MABUX ARA LNG Bunker Index
Port LNG$/mton MGO LS$/mton Date
ARA
808.50
-1.00
685.00
-3.00
Feb 3
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Port	LNG$/mton	MGO LS$/mton	Date
ARA	808.50	-1.00	685.00	-3.00	Feb 3

MABUX Global Bunker Index

380HSFO$/mton		VLS FO$/mton		MGO LS$/mton		Date
430.28	-2.08	514.64	-0.91	782.10	-2.82	Feb 6

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MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI)

Correlation between market bunker prices (MBP) and MABUX Digital Bunker Price Benchmark (DBP)

All Indexes in $/mton	380HSFO			VLS FO			MGO LS			Date
All Indexes in $/mton	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	Date
Rotterdam	398	433	-35	445	481	-36	685	704	-19	Feb 6
Singapore	432	429	+3	480	522	-42	673	697	-24	Feb 6
Fujairah	408	395	+13	472	514	-42	739	760	-21	Feb 6
Houston	354	409	-55	458	467	-9	648	684	-36	Feb 6

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Latest News
- 2026-02-06
  Oil prices up after U.S.-Iran talks; set for first weekly losses since December
  Oil prices ticked up on Friday, after reports citing Iran’s foreign minister said talks between the country and the U.S. had got off to a "good start." At 11:05 ET (16:05 GMT), Brent oil futures for April were up 1% to $68.15 a barrel and West Texas... Read more Oil prices ticked up on Friday, after reports citing Iran’s foreign minister said talks between the country and the U.S. had got off to a "good start."
  At 11:05 ET (16:05 GMT), Brent oil futures for April were up 1% to $68.15 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 0.9% to $63.85 a barrel.
  Notably, the crude benchmarks were on track for weekly declines of 3.4% and 2%, respectively, their first since mid-December 2025, as investors priced in a smaller risk premium, while also taking some profits after a big runup.
  Get more price insights on oil by subscribing to InvestingPro
  Araghchi says ’good start’ to U.S.-Iran talks
  U.S. and Iranian officials met in Oman Friday morning amid heightened military tensions in the Middle East, after Washington deployed at least two naval fleets in the region.
  Iran’s foreign minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi told local news outlets that talks had gotten off to a "positive and good start" and that further discussions would follow.
  Markets are hoping that dialogue between Tehran and Washington will help deescalate some tensions and prevent a broader war – a notion that has seen traders taking some risk premium out of crude this week.
  The U.S. and Iran were earlier seen disagreeing over the subject of Friday’s talks, with Iran rejecting U.S. calls to discuss its missile arsenal and stating that the discussions will only be limited to discussing Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.
  
  Araghchi, speaking to Iran’s state news agency, reiterated that the talks focused "solely" on the nuclear issue.
  Iran is a major producer of oil, and is located next to the Strait of Hormuz – one of the world’s most important shipping channels for crude.
  If these talks result in a concrete agreement, attention is likely to shift back to the demand–supply balance, with production growth likely to outpace consumption.
  "In that environment, oil prices may struggle to find support without a clear catalyst," said Nikos Tzabouras, Senior Market Analyst at Tradu.com.
  However, "ongoing tensions in the Middle East, particularly around key shipping routes, mean disruption risks cannot be ruled out and could quickly shift sentiment back towards higher prices."
  Oil heads for weekly loss
  This would be the first week this year and the first since mid-December 2025 that the crude benchmarks have registered losses, with prices facing some profit-taking after logging six consecutive weeks of gains.
  Crude was initially boosted by bets on tighter supplies, especially as extreme weather in the U.S. disrupted production across the country.
  Production outages in Kazakhstan and fears of a greater conflict in the Middle East also supported crude.
  But this gave way to some profit-taking this week, while a broader rout in commodity prices, amid pressure from a resurgent dollar, also weighed on oil.
  The dollar was headed for its strongest week in nearly a month after markets viewed Kevin Warsh, U.S. President Donald Trump’s nominee for the next chairman of the Federal Reserve, as a less dovish pick.
  
  Source: Investing.com
- 2026-02-06
  IMO to debate scrubber discharge bans and polar fuels at PPR 13
  Member states of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) are set to discuss a proposal, put forward by a group of European countries, that would open the door for restrictions on discharges from exhaust gas cleaning systems (EGCS), also known as... Read more
- 2026-02-06
  CMA CGM unveils plans for electric river barge on Fos-Lyon route
  The CMA CGM Group has announced the launch of a project that will see an electric and hybrid river barge operate on the river Rhône between Fos and Lyon. The project, which was unveiled in Lyon in the presence of Transport Minister Philippe Tabarot,... Read more
- 2026-02-06
  Oil set for first weekly decline in seven weeks ahead of US-Iran talks
  U.S. crude futures rose slightly on Friday but were on track for their first weekly drop in seven weeks as supply concerns eased, and investors focused on the outcome of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks in Oman later in the day. Brent crude futures rose 25 cents,... Read more U.S. crude futures rose slightly on Friday but were on track for their first weekly drop in seven weeks as supply concerns eased, and investors focused on the outcome of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks in Oman later in the day.
  Brent crude futures rose 25 cents, or 0.4%, to $67.80 a barrel at 0353 GMT, while the U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was also up 25 cents, or 0.4%, at $63.54 a barrel.
  The benchmarks are down more than 3% from near six-month highs reached in late January when U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to strike Iran, with the two sides set to hold talks in Oman on Friday.
  However, Tehran and Washington have not agreed on the agenda for the meeting. Iran wants to discuss only nuclear issues, while the U.S. is pressing to include Iran’s ballistic missiles, support for armed groups around the region and the treatment of its people.
  "The two sides remain well apart, leaving tensions elevated. This should see the geopolitical risk premium remain in place," Daniel Hynes, an analyst at ANZ, said in a note on Friday.
  Any escalation of tensions between the U.S. and Iran could disrupt oil flows, as about a fifth of the world’s total oil consumption passes through the Strait of Hormuz between Oman and Iran.
  Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq export most of their crude via the strait, as does their fellow OPEC member Iran.
  
  If the U.S.-Iran talks ease the prospect of conflict in the region, oil prices could decline further.
  "We think that geopolitical fears will give way to weak fundamentals," Capital Economics analysts said in a note, pointing to a recovery in Kazakhstan’s oil output which will help push oil prices lower, towards $50 per barrel by end-2026.
  Source: Reuters/Investing.com
- 2026-02-06
  StanChart: Oil Market Rebalances as Oversupply Fears Fade Into 2026
  The oil price rally has finally run out of steam, with oil prices declining for the first time in three days, with the selection of Kevin Warsh as the next U.S Federal Reserve chair (expected to be more dovish than Jerome Powell), the notable ratcheting... Read more The oil price rally has finally run out of steam, with oil prices declining for the first time in three days, with the selection of Kevin Warsh as the next U.S Federal Reserve chair (expected to be more dovish than Jerome Powell), the notable ratcheting down of rhetoric between the U.S. and Iran, a business-as-usual OPEC+ meeting and reduction in the U.S. tariff rates on India all acting against oil prices.
  
  However, the biggest catalyst was Iran’s revelation that it will hold talks with the United States, easing fears of imminent strikes on the OPEC member. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi confirmed that the negotiations will be held in Oman on Friday. Brent crude for March delivery fell 2.9% to trade at $67.54 per barrel at 11.50 am ET, while the corresponding WTI contract declined 3.0% to change hands at $63.19 per barrel. Last week, oil prices spiked after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened the use of force against Iran in response to Tehran’s bloody crackdown on nationwide protests that have left thousands dead. However, a U.S. official has told AP that the White House remains “very skeptical” that the negotiations will bear fruit, with Trump warning that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ‘’should be very worried” ahead of the talks.
  
  Further, commodity analysts at Standard Chartered have reported that sentiment in oil markets appears to be gradually turning more positive, as the bearish oversupply narrative that was prevalent in the second half of 2025 weakening, and traders turn their attention to a more positive H2-2026. U.S. oil inventories recently posted a big drop, a positive sign for the oil bulls.
  
  Standard Chartered argues that the shift in sentiment is being driven less by spot price moves and more by changes beneath the surface of the market. In its latest Commodity Roadmap, the bank notes that the Brent forward curve has strengthened materially over the past month, with backwardation now extending well beyond the front contracts and pushing out toward early 2027.
  
  One month ago, backwardation was limited to the prompt structure, but its extension along the curve is being read as a signal that the market is reassessing the depth and duration of the oversupply feared in the second half of 2025. Standard Chartered analysts also noted that many of the large projected supply surpluses published last year are likely to be revised back toward more typical seasonal balances, while demand expectations for 2026 are already being adjusted higher, particularly as fiscal stimulus and policy support in China begin to filter through consumption data.
  
  The bank also points to positioning and supply responsiveness as key elements behind its more constructive view. According to Standard Chartered, speculative length in crude remains far from stretched, with money-manager positioning still well below five-year highs, suggesting the market is not yet crowded on the long side. At the same time, lower prices are beginning to curb U.S. shale growth, reinforcing the idea that supply is becoming more price-sensitive.
  
  Against this backdrop, the analysts expect OPEC+ to restart incremental production increases in the second quarter of 2026, not because the market is loose, but because tighter balances and improved curve structure will allow additional barrels to be absorbed. That process, they argue, should increasingly expose how concentrated global spare capacity has become, adding an underlying layer of support even if headline prices remain anchored in the low-to-mid $60s per barrel range.
  
  The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a decline of 11.1 million barrels bringing stockpiles to 420.3 million barrels for the week ending February 4, significantly higher than market expectations of a draw of just 640k barrels. The sharp decline is largely attributed to severe winter storm "Fern," which hampered energy infrastructure, reduced refinery runs, and caused production freeze-offs, particularly in the Permian Basin. Distillate fuel oil stocks also dropped significantly by 4.8 million barrels while gasoline inventories increased by 4.7m barrels.
  
  The eight key member countries of the OPEC+ alliance, namely Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman, met virtually on February 1, and agreed to maintain their current voluntary oil production cuts through March 2026. The decision confirmed that the planned, gradual return of 1.65 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil to the market--originally scheduled to start earlier--will remain paused for the first quarter of 2026 due to expectations of weaker seasonal demand. Despite holding production steady, the group emphasized they maintain "full flexibility" to adjust output levels--either by continuing the pause or reversing it--based on future market developments.
  
  The eight members also reaffirmed their commitment to full compliance with the Declaration of Cooperation and pledged to compensate for any overproduced volumes that have occurred since January 2024. OPEC+ compensates for overproduced volumes by requiring member nations to implement corresponding, "make-up" production cuts below their assigned quotas in subsequent months, a process monitored by the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC).
  
  Key overproducers like Iraq, Russia, and Kazakhstan, along with the UAE and Oman, have submitted updated, detailed schedules to offset overproduction from 2024 through mid-2026. Overproduced volumes between January 2024 and early 2025 clocked in at a cumulative 4.779 million barrels per day (b/d), which will be offset in the current year. Kazakhstan is responsible for the largest share, and is expected to cut output by nearly 670,000 bpd by June. However, there is no guarantee of full implementation, as Kazakhstan and Iraq have historically struggled to meet compensation targets.
  
  On the natural gas front, U.S. gas prices have pulled back sharply, driven by forecasts of milder weather reducing heating demand and relieving pressure on supply. After hitting highs above $7/MMBtu, Henry Hub prices have been cut in half to trade at $3.48/MMBtu due to improved weather outlooks and easing supply fears. The EIA has forecast Henry Hub natural gas prices to average just under $3.50/MMBtu in 2026 while European (TTF) gas prices are forecast to stabilize around €30/MWh. However, gas prices are expected to trend upwards over the long-term thanks to explosive demand growth by AI-driven data centers, despite projections of weakening gas demand in Europe due to increased electrification and renewable energy adoption.
  Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-02-06
  Can Foreign Investment Save Venezuela’s Broken Oil Sector?
  Venezuela’s autocratic ruling regime, led by interim President Delcy Rodriguez, recently announced it created the legal framework required to privatize Venezuela’s oil industry, thus ending PDVSA’s monopoly. This is in accordance with U.S. President Donald... Read more Venezuela’s autocratic ruling regime, led by interim President Delcy Rodriguez, recently announced it created the legal framework required to privatize Venezuela’s oil industry, thus ending PDVSA’s monopoly. This is in accordance with U.S. President Donald Trump’s demands and comes at a time when Washington is easing restrictions on trading with Venezuela. While questions loom over whether Venezuela is investable for foreign energy companies, this is huge step in the right direction, removing a key concern for Big Oil. Although there are considerable risks to be addressed, notably the heavily corroded state of Venezuela’s oil infrastructure.
  
  After Venezuela’s president, Nicolas Maduro, and his wife Cilia Flores were seized by U.S. forces last month in a bold night raid on Caracas, Washington moved to restore commercial relations with the near-failed state. Trump made it clear to Delcy Rodriguez and the remaining regime leaders that they must comply with directions from the White House or face an outcome worse than Maduro’s. A key priority for the White House is reopening Venezuela’s oil industry to foreign investment as Trump aggressively courts energy majors to invest in the near-failed state.
  
  In a meeting with Trump last month, Darren Woods, CEO of the world’s second-largest publicly traded oil company, ExxonMobil, called Venezuela uninvestable. Woods went on to say: "Significant changes have to be made to those commercial frameworks, the legal system," he continued. "There has to be durable investment protections, and there has to be change to the hydrocarbon laws in the country." Whereas other CEOs took a more positive view, although no commitments to invest were forthcoming.
  
  The reticence of Exxon’s CEO is easy to understand. When Hugo Chavez nationalized foreign-controlled oil assets in 2007, it cost foreign energy companies billions of dollars, with Exxon claiming losses of $16.6 billion. This was a turning point for Venezuela’s hydrocarbon sector, causing its decline to accelerate as investment plunged and skilled labor fled the country. Caracas’ latest announcement goes a long way to addressing the concerns raised by Woods. If an appropriate regulatory framework can be implemented and the risk of nationalization or heavy-handed interference by Caracas is eliminated, there is a greater incentive for foreign oil companies to invest in Venezuela.
  
  Nonetheless, Venezuela’s decrepit petroleum infrastructure, along with high production costs and steep discounts applied to the heavy crude produced remain a deterrent. While Venezuela’s average breakeven price is estimated to be as low as $42 to $56 per barrel, it is higher for the Orinoco Belt, the country’s main oil-producing region. The Orinoco Belt accounts for around 80% of Venezuela’s total oil output and contains a significant portion of the country’s 303 billion barrels of reserves. The numbers vary, but operational facilities in the Orinoco Belt break even at $49.26 per barrel, which rises to $80 per barrel for new projects or those requiring refurbishment.
  
  With Brent trading at around $67 a barrel, spending potentially billions of dollars in capital to develop the Orinoco Belt’s extra-heavy extremely sour crude oil makes little economic sense. This is especially the case when it is considered that Venezuela’s heavy oil sells at a steep discount to the Brent global benchmark. Venezuela’s key export grade is known as Merey. This is a heavy crude oil grade with an API gravity of 15 degrees and over 2% sulfur content. Merey is a blend of extra-heavy crude from the Orinoco Belt and light sweet Santa Barbara oil.
  
  Diluent is essential for upgrading the extra-heavy Orinoco crude oil, which, when extracted, is a highly viscous tar-like substance filled with contaminants like vanadium and nickel that is essentially unmarketable. To make the petroleum flow so it is transportable and marketable, the tar-like substance is mixed with either light petroleum such as Santa Barbara crude, condensates, or naptha. This not only reduces viscosity so that it flows but also lessens the potentially hazardous concentrations of sulfur, metals, and other contaminants.
  
  Santa Barbara crude is a light sweet grade of oil lifted in Venezuela’s onshore Santa Barbara oilfield. The petroleum grade has an API gravity of 39 degrees with 0.48% sulfur. Those characteristics make Santa Barbara oil an ideal diluent for the extra-heavy petroleum extracted in the Orinoco Belt. In fact, it was diversion of Santa Barbara oil production, which accounts for around 15% of Venezuela’s total output, from dilapidated refineries for use as diluent that was a key contributor to country-wide gasoline shortages, which began in 2017.
  
  Venezuela’s light oil production fell sharply due to a lack of investment in field development and well-head maintenance, which was further exacerbated by Washington ratcheting up sanctions. The chronic lack of light oil and condensate was the primary reason for Venezuela’s petroleum production plummeting to historical lows of 500,000 barrels per day during 2020. Indeed, it wasn’t until Teheran started shipping condensate to Venezuela that state-controlled oil company PDVSA was able to consistently boost production. When Chevron’s license to lift petroleum in Venezuela was reinstated, the supermajor began importing U.S. naptha for upgrading the heavy oil produced by its operations because of Treasury Department restrictions preventing the use of Iranian products.
  
  The oil contained in the Orinoco Belt is difficult and costly to extract. Special techniques and equipment are required to lift the extra-heavy, highly viscous tar-like substance. This adds further lifting costs, helping to explain why the oil produced in the Orinoco Belt has a high breakeven price. This becomes more complicated when it comes to processing and refining that petroleum. The dense nature of heavy oil, coupled with high sulfur levels and substantial amounts of contaminants, means specialist equipment, including fluid catalytic crackers, delayed cokers, sulfur recovery units, and amine scrubbers.
  
  The added nature, complexity, and cost associated with refining heavy crude oil, including Merey, means it trades at a considerable discount to the international Brent benchmark. According to OPEC data for 2025, Merey averaged $56.68 per barrel, with an average annual discount to Brent of $12.28 per barrel, which averaged $69.14 per barrel. While the removal of U.S. sanctions will boost Merey’s price, the crude blend is still expected to trade at around a $10 per barrel discount to Brent. When this significant discount and the high breakeven price are considered, it is difficult to see how international energy companies can profitably invest in heavy oil operations in the Orinoco Belt.
  
  Despite these difficulties, U.S. supermajor Chevron, which is among the very few foreign energy companies still operating in Venezuela, plans to expand output at the five oil operations where it holds a working interest. Chevron, which has operated in Venezuela since 1923, is the best-positioned of the U.S. drillers to profit from the reopening of the country’s oil industry. After reporting a fourth-quarter 2025 earnings beat last week, Chevron Chairman and CEO Mike Wirth said the company will expand production in Venezuela.
  
  At that same conference call, Chevron CFO Eimear Bonner went on to say the company can bolster production in Venezuela by up to 50% over the next 18 months to two years. Chevron currently lifts 250,000 barrels per day in Venezuela, meaning the Houston-based supermajor could be producing as much as 375,000 barrels per day by 2028. Wirth recently said Chevron has 100,000 barrels per day capacity at its U.S. refineries, which are specifically designed to handle Venezuela’s heavy crude.
  
  This commitment was made despite Chevron’s fourth quarter 2025 earnings per share falling considerably compared to the previous quarter and a year earlier. Chevron, however, intends to fund this production growth by investing the funds from oil sales to develop existing operations rather than committing new capital to the country. That cautious approach further illustrates that oil companies, even Big Oil, are hesitant to commit the considerable hundreds of billions of dollars of capital required to rejuvenate Venezuela’s petroleum industry. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-02-06
  MABUX: Global bunker indices to reverse into downward movement on Feb. 06.
  The MABUX World Bunker Index — a composite indicator reflecting daily prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO, and MGO — continued its upward trajectory on Feb. 05, marking the second consecutive day of gains: 380 HSFO: USD/MT 432.36 (+5.30) VLSFO: USD/MT 515.55... Read more The MABUX World Bunker Index — a composite indicator reflecting daily prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO, and MGO — continued its upward trajectory on Feb. 05, marking the second consecutive day of gains:
  
  380 HSFO: USD/MT 432.36 (+5.30)
  VLSFO: USD/MT 515.55 (+5.34)
  MGO: USD/MT 784.92 (+4.05)
  
  As of Feb. 05, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI) — which measures the correlation between Market Bunker Prices (MBP) and the MABUX Digital Bunker Price Benchmark (DBP) – indicated the following developments across the key global hubs of Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston:
  
  • HSFO segment: Fujairah remained the only overpriced port in this segment, although the premium narrowed by $7. The remaining ports continued to show underpricing: discounts widened by $7 in Rotterdam, $8 in Singapore, and $6 in Houston. MDI values in Singapore and Fujairah stayed close to the 100% correlation level between MBP and DBP.
  
  • VLSFO segment: All four ports remained undercharged. Discounts expanded by $6 in Rotterdam, $10 in Singapore, $8 in Fujairah, and $9 in Houston.
  
  • MGO LS segment: Underpricing persisted across all four ports. The level of undercharging increased by $4 in Rotterdam, $1 in Singapore, $8 in Fujairah, and $30 in Houston.
  
  We expect Global bunker indices to shift into downward movement on Feb. 06: 380 HSFO – minus 3-7 USD/MT, VLSFO – minus 3-9 USD/MT, MGO LS – minus 2-10 USD/MT.
  Source: MABUX
- 2026-02-06
  How Policy Powered Guyana’s Oil Boom and Undermined Venezuela’s
  As the geopolitical map of South American oil shifts in early 2026, the contrast between Guyana and Venezuela has never been starker. In global energy markets, geology is often treated as destiny. If a country has oil, investment and prosperity are... Read more As the geopolitical map of South American oil shifts in early 2026, the contrast between Guyana and Venezuela has never been starker.
  
  In global energy markets, geology is often treated as destiny. If a country has oil, investment and prosperity are assumed to follow. But, in recent years, the contrast between Guyana and Venezuela—two neighbors sitting atop the same prolific basin—offers a powerful rebuttal to that assumption.
  
  The two countries share some similarities, but they occupy completely different economic worlds. One is in the midst of one of the fastest oil?production ramp?ups ever recorded. The other is struggling to keep a once?dominant industry alive after years of political meddling, underinvestment, and capital flight.
  
  Guyana’s Remarkable Sprint
  
  A decade ago, Guyana produced zero barrels of oil. As of January 2026, production is running roughly between 840,000 and 900,000 barrels per day. With the recent ramp-up of the floating production, storage and offloading vessel ONE GUYANA FPSO—the largest and most technologically advanced vessel operating in the Stabroek Block—the country is on track to reach nearly 1.5 million barrels per day in 2027.
  
  That trajectory is extraordinary. Guyana went from a frontier exploration story to a globally relevant producer in less time than it takes to permit a single major pipeline in parts of North America.
  
  The explanation is not just the quality of Guyana’s light, sweet crude, although that is certainly a factor. It is the institutional framework the country put in place. By partnering early with an ExxonMobil-led consortium and maintaining a stable, predictable contractual environment, Guyana allowed capital and expertise to flow rapidly. The economic results speak for themselves: GDP growth of nearly 20% in 2025 and a projected 16.2% in 2026, making Guyana the fastest-growing economy in the world.
  
  Venezuela’s Missed Opportunity
  
  Just across the border sits Venezuela, home to the world’s largest proven oil reserves—approximately 303 billion barrels. On paper, it should be one of the wealthiest energy producers on Earth. In practice, in recent years production has fallen below 1 million barrels per day—roughly on par with Guyana’s current production, despite Venezuela’s vastly larger resource base.
  
  The turning point came in 2007, when President Hugo Chávez forced the expropriation of assets owned by ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips. The belief at the time was that Venezuela could seize the physical infrastructure—wells, upgraders, and facilities—and operate them with state-appointed managers.
  
  What could not be seized was technical expertise, access to global supply chains, or the capital required to sustain complex oil operations. Over time, infrastructure deteriorated, production collapsed, and facilities meant to anchor Venezuela’s oil future became symbols of chronic underinvestment and mismanagement. These factors led to a steep production decline, which was exacerbated later by economic sanctions.
  
  A Sudden Pivot In 2026
  
  Recent events have made the contrast even sharper. Following the January 3 detention of Nicolás Maduro and subsequent U.S. intervention, Venezuela’s interim government has moved quickly to reverse decades of policy.
  
  Interim President Delcy Rodríguez has now signed legislation opening Venezuela’s oil sector to privatization. This marks a dramatic reversal of two decades of state?dominated energy policy and is a move that would have been politically unthinkable just months ago. U.S. sanctions are beginning to ease, and reports indicate that American oil executives are once again surveying Venezuelan assets for the first time in nearly twenty years.
  
  Still, reality imposes limits. Guyana’s success was built over two decades of trust and consistent policy. Venezuela’s decline was shaped by two decades of contract abrogation and capital destruction. According to a January 6, 2026 Rystad Energy report, Venezuela would need $183 billion in investment to restore crude output to 3 million barrels per day, roughly the level it produced before the 2007 expropriation.
  
  The Investor Takeaway
  
  Guyana’s experience underscores a fundamental truth about the energy business: capital goes where it is welcome—and stays where it is treated well. ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods recently noted that the company is now considering exploration closer to Venezuela’s border as geopolitical risks have eased. The irony is hard to miss.
  
  While Venezuela is attempting to lure back the very companies it once expelled to repair a broken industry, those same firms are setting production records just miles away in Guyanese waters.
  
  For energy investors, reserves alone are never the whole story. They are only numbers until paired with a stable legal framework, competent operators, and political restraint. Guyana lacked those elements twenty years ago and deliberately built them. Venezuela had them—and dismantled them.
  
  As attention turns to Venezuela’s attempted reset, the smarter bet may not be on the vast barrels trapped in Orinoco heavy crude, but on the FPSOs steadily delivering Guyana’s oil to global markets. Guyana didn’t just discover oil. It learned how to manage it. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-02-06
  Taiwan to Hike U.S. LNG Imports After Reaching Trade Deal
  After striking a trade and investment deal with the United States last month, Taiwan plans to hike imports of U.S. LNG this year to have American gas account for about a third of its supply. “We plan to increase purchases of natural gas from the U.S.... Read more After striking a trade and investment deal with the United States last month, Taiwan plans to hike imports of U.S. LNG this year to have American gas account for about a third of its supply.
  
  “We plan to increase purchases of natural gas from the U.S. to 30%-33% this year from about 10% now,” Fang Jeng-zen, chairman of Taiwan’s state-held oil and gas company CPC Corporation, told reporters on Thursday, as carried by Reuters.
  
  Taiwan wants to buy more gas from the U.S. and will reduce imports from other suppliers, said the Economy Minister Kung Ming-hsin.
  
  The economy ministry is in charge of the country’s energy policy.
  
  Last year, Taiwan’s CPC signed a letter of intent to invest in the Alaska LNG export project and buy LNG from it, as part of a move to bolster its gas supply and energy security. The Trump Administration is strongly supporting the $44-billion Alaska LNG project, and officials last year spent a lot of time pitching the project to potential Asian investors and LNG offtakers.
  
  Last month, Glenfarne Group, the majority owner and developer of the Alaska LNG Project, announced a series of major advances that move Phase One of the project from development into early execution. Phase One consists of a 739-mile pipeline to deliver natural gas from Alaska’s North Slope to meet Alaska’s domestic energy needs. Glenfarne is targeting mechanical completion of the pipeline in 2028 and delivery of first gas in 2029. Phase Two will add the LNG liquefaction terminal and related infrastructure to export 20 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) of LNG.
  
  Also last month, Taiwan and the U.S. reached a trade and investment deal, which reduces U.S. tariffs on Taiwanese products to a maximum of 15%, with tariff exemptions in several industries, including for Taiwanese semiconductor companies investing in the U.S.
  
  The U.S. Commerce Department said that Taiwan will provide credit guarantees of at least $250 billion to facilitate additional investment by Taiwanese enterprises, “supporting the establishment and expansion of the full semiconductor supply chain and ecosystem in the United States.” Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-02-06
  Shell Weighs Multibillion Dollar Venezuela Gas Investments
  Shell’s CEO Wael Sawan told CNBC the company is actively considering multibillion-dollar offshore natural gas investments in Venezuela that could start production in the next few years, pending regulatory approvals. The comments mark one of the clearest... Read more Shell’s CEO Wael Sawan told CNBC the company is actively considering multibillion-dollar offshore natural gas investments in Venezuela that could start production in the next few years, pending regulatory approvals. The comments mark one of the clearest public signals yet that Shell is weighing a major push into Venezuelan energy assets after years of sanctions and uncertainty.
  
  The potential targets are offshore gas opportunities. Sawan said these projects could be activated within months, which is about as tight a timeline as Big Oil ever commits to publicly. The interest follows a broader industry trend of revisiting Venezuelan hydrocarbon development, including shared gas fields with Trinidad and Tobago that Shell and BP have sought U.S. licences for after sanctions eased.
  
  What’s not clear yet is the scale, structure or terms of any deal, and Shell’s comment doesn’t mean final investment decisions have been made. The CEO was explicit that approvals are still pending — in other words, this is a strategic consideration, not a signed contract.
  
  That context matters because Shell’s latest financials out this week show the company is under pressure even as it keeps rewarding investors. Shell reported adjusted earnings of roughly $3.3 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025, down from prior quarters, and missed some analyst expectations. The company boosted its dividend by about 4 percent and kept a $3.5 billion share buyback in place, but net debt climbed and earnings were the weakest in nearly five years as lower oil and gas prices and losses in its chemicals and products segment weighed on results.
  
  Shell is generating enough cash to keep shareholders happy. It’s not, however, making enough to make massive new bets without a clear path to approvals and returns. The Venezuela talk is real and potentially big if it leads to sanctioned operations, but it’s not a done deal. Source: Oilprice.com

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