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MABUX ARA LNG Bunker Index
Port LNG$/mton MGO LS$/mton Date
ARA
967.00
+63.00
1 340.00
+40.00
Apr 28
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Port	LNG$/mton	MGO LS$/mton	Date
ARA	967.00	+63.00	1 340.00	+40.00	Apr 28

MABUX Global Bunker Index

380HSFO$/mton		VLS FO$/mton		MGO LS$/mton		Date
776.36	+11.32	933.43	+19.41	1 481.46	+19.45	Apr 30

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MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI)

Correlation between market bunker prices (MBP) and MABUX Digital Bunker Price Benchmark (DBP)

All Indexes in $/mton	380HSFO			VLS FO			MGO LS			Date
All Indexes in $/mton	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	Date
Rotterdam	685	811	-126	782	899	-117	1 340	1 452	-112	Apr 30
Singapore	695	844	-149	810	1 001	-191	1 335	1 445	-110	Apr 30
Fujairah	680	786	-106	832	969	-137	1 545	1 508	+37	Apr 30
Houston	680	785	-105	900	925	-25	1 246	1 332	-86	Apr 30

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Latest News
- 2026-04-30
  MABUX: OFFICE CLOSED ON MAY 1, 2026 – NATIONAL HOLIDAY NOTICE
  DEAR FRIENDS! PLEASE BE KINDLY INFORMED THAT OUR OFFICE WILL BE CLOSED ON MAY 1, 2026, DUE TO A NATIONAL HOLIDAY. NEVERTHELESS, SELECTED UPDATES, AS WELL AS OIL FUTURES AND RELATED TOOLS, WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE ON THE WEBSITE. SHOULD YOU REQUIRE... Read more DEAR FRIENDS!
  
  PLEASE BE KINDLY INFORMED THAT OUR OFFICE WILL BE CLOSED ON MAY 1, 2026, DUE TO A NATIONAL HOLIDAY.
  
  NEVERTHELESS, SELECTED UPDATES, AS WELL AS OIL FUTURES AND RELATED TOOLS, WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE ON THE WEBSITE.
  
  SHOULD YOU REQUIRE ASSISTANCE DURING THE HOLIDAY, PLEASE FEEL FREE TO CONTACT US ROUND THE CLOCK VIA EMAIL AT INFO@MABUX.COM.
  
  MABUX TEAM
  Source: MABUX
- 2026-04-30
  MABUX: Bunker Weekly Outlook, Week 18, 2026.
  During the week, the global bunker market resumed a clear upward trajectory, driven by persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the absence of any visible de-escalation signals. Market sentiment remained firmly supported by supply-side... Read more During the week, the global bunker market resumed a clear upward trajectory, driven by persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the absence of any visible de-escalation signals. Market sentiment remained firmly supported by supply-side concerns and elevated risk premiums. By the end of the week, the 380 HSFO index increased by USD 26.54, rising from USD 737.03/MT to USD 763.57/MT. The VLSFO index recorded a more pronounced gain of USD 54.12, climbing from USD 856.02/MT to USD 910.14/MT and decisively breaching the USD 900.00 threshold. The MGO LS index also strengthened, advancing by USD 45.24 from USD 1,406.74/MT to USD 1,451.98/MT. At the time of writing, the market exhibited early signs of relative stabilization, with bunker indices transitioning into a phase of moderate and mixed fluctuations, suggesting a temporary pause in the upward momentum.
  
  The MABUX Global Scrubber Spread (SS) – representing the price differential between 380 HSFO and VLSFO – posted a significant increase of USD 27.58, rising from USD 118.99 last week to USD 146.57. The index remains firmly above the key psychological threshold of USD 100.00 (SS breakeven), reinforcing the economic attractiveness of scrubber installations. The weekly average SS index also advanced by USD 11.43, confirming a strengthening trend on a broader basis. At the regional level, Rotterdam recorded a substantial gain, with the SS Spread rising by USD 28.00 from USD 62.00 to USD 90.00, approaching the breakeven level. The port’s weekly average spread increased by USD 18.84, indicating continued recovery in fuel price differentials. In Singapore, the 380 HSFO/VLSFO spread also expanded, gaining USD 5.00 from USD 87.00 to USD 92.00, gradually moving closer to the USD 100.00 threshold. The weekly average spread in the port rose by USD 23.33, reflecting improving market conditions in the region. Amid ongoing market volatility, the SS Spread has established a clear upward trend, which is expected to persist into the coming week. Further details are available in the “Differentials” section of mabux.com.
  
  The Istanbul ECA Spread (ES) continued its downward movement over the week, declining by USD 25.00 from USD 75.00 to USD 50.00. Despite the overall decrease, the market remained highly volatile, with intermittent spikes reaching as high as USD 115.00. The weekly average ES also fell by USD 14.17, reflecting the prevailing downward pressure. The Venice ECA Spread remains unavailable due to the absence of consistent market quotations. Amid sustained volatility, the ECA Spread may shift toward moderate growth in the coming week. Further details are available in the “Differentials” section of mabux.com.
  
  According to the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF), the ongoing conflict in the Middle East is significantly disrupting global gas supply dynamics while simultaneously triggering demand destruction. LNG imports—particularly across Asian markets—have declined sharply, pressured by elevated prices and constrained availability. What initially appears as a short-term shock increasingly carries structural implications: a prolonged conflict could reshape long-term demand patterns and undermine expectations of a forthcoming global gas surplus. On the supply side, alternative producers remain unable to fully offset the disruption. While U.S. LNG exports have expanded to partially bridge the gap, capacity from African and other suppliers continues to be underutilized. This imbalance is likely to sustain market tightness over the medium term, reinforcing upward pressure on prices and delaying any meaningful rebalancing of the global gas market.
  
  European underground gas storage levels continued to show a modest increase as of April 28, reaching 31.97% of total capacity, up by 1.36 percentage points week-on-week. Despite this gradual recovery, storage levels remain significantly below the beginning-of-year mark, standing 29.49 percentage points lower compared to 61.46%, highlighting the slower pace of replenishment. At the same time, the European TTF gas benchmark resumed a moderate upward trend toward the end of week 18, rising by EUR 1.663/MWh to EUR 43.594/MWh, compared to EUR 41.931/MWh the previous week.
  
  The price of LNG as bunker fuel at the port of Sines (Portugal) increased by USD 105.00 this week (USD 1,090/MT versus USD 985/MT last week). Meanwhile, the price differential between LNG and conventional fuel continued to narrow, reaching USD 290 in favor of LNG (versus USD 342 the week before): MGO LS was quoted at USD 1,380/MT at the port of Sines on April 27. More detailed information is available in the "LNG Bunkering" section of mabux.com.
  
  Amid persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI)—which measures the ratio between market bunker prices (MBP) and the MABUX digital bunker benchmark (DBP)—displayed a clear shift toward deeper undervaluation across the major global hubs of Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston:
  
  • 380 HSFO segment: all four ports remained in the undervalued zone, with discount levels widening further over the week. The MDI discount increased by 31 points in Rotterdam, 41 points in Singapore, 20 points in Fujairah, and 9 points in Houston. Notably, the MDI in both Rotterdam and Singapore moved closer to the USD 100.00 threshold, indicating a significant divergence from benchmark valuations.
  
  • VLSFO segment: Houston was the only port to remain overvalued; however, its premium narrowed by 16 points. The other three ports—Rotterdam, Singapore, and Fujairah—continued to be undervalued, with discounts expanding by 18, 28, and 10 points, respectively. The MDI discounts in all three ports exceeded the USD 100.00 mark.
  
  • MGO LS segment: Singapore shifted into the undervalued category, joining Rotterdam and Houston. The level of undervaluation increased by 3 points in Rotterdam, 83 points in Fujairah, and 8 points in Houston. Fujairah remained the only overvalued port in this segment, although its premium dropped sharply by 90 points, falling below the USD 100.00 level.
  
  Overall, the balance between overvalued and undervalued ports continued to tilt toward undervaluation, with an additional port entering the undervalued zone in the MGO LS segment. This trend is likely to persist in the near term. Further details on the relationship between market prices and the MABUX digital benchmark are available in the “Digital Bunker Prices” section on mabux.com.
  
  The 84th session of the Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC 84) is being held this week at IMO Headquarters in London. Ahead of the meeting, a broad maritime coalition—representing flag registries, classification societies, shipowner associations, and shipping companies—has issued a joint statement urging IMO Member States to give serious consideration to alternative proposals for the IMO’s Net Zero Framework (NZF). These proposals are positioned as offering a more pragmatic pathway that better aligns decarbonisation ambitions with demonstrated market readiness. The statement highlights that, following the deadlock at the Extraordinary MEPC session last October, both industry and Member State support for the NZF has weakened, while concerns over its practical implementation have intensified. This reflects growing unease within the sector regarding the feasibility and operational management of the current framework. At the same time, the coalition reiterates that the IMO remains the only body with the mandate, legitimacy, and global reach required to establish a level playing field—considered essential for unlocking the trillions of dollars in investment needed to decarbonise the global fleet. Notably, the alternative proposal also stipulates abandoning the concept of an IMO Fund or any similar mechanism involving direct revenue collection and redistribution, signalling a shift toward less centralized financial instruments. MEPC 84 is scheduled to conclude on May 1.
  
  The market remains highly sensitive to developments around the Strait of Hormuz. Suppliers continue to limit volumes amid concerns that any rapid normalization of supply may not be matched by corresponding demand, potentially resulting in the accumulation of high-cost inventories. This strategy is sustaining tight availability while reinforcing a cautious and risk-averse supply stance. We expect global bunker indices to maintain their upward trajectory in the coming week, supported by the ongoing escalation of geopolitical tensions and the increasing likelihood of a return to direct military confrontation.
  Source: MABUX
- 2026-04-30
  Oil prices rise on report US considering military options to break Iran deadlock
  Oil prices rose on Thursday on a report the U.S. is considering potential military action against Iran to break the deadlock in negotiations to end the war, increasing concerns of more supply disruptions to already curtailed Middle East exports. Brent... Read more Oil prices rose on Thursday on a report the U.S. is considering potential military action against Iran to break the deadlock in negotiations to end the war, increasing concerns of more supply disruptions to already curtailed Middle East exports.
  Brent crude futures for June rose $5.27, or 4.5%, to $123.30 a barrel as of 0347 GMT after gaining 6.1% in the previous session. The June contract, which has increased for a ninth day, expires on Thursday and the more active July contract was at $113.10, up $2.66, or 2.4%, after gaining 5.8% in the previous session.
  U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures for June were up $2.42, or 2.3%, at $109.30 a barrel, after climbing 7% in the previous session, climbing in eight of nine sessions.
  Both benchmarks are on track for their fourth month of gains.
  U.S. President Donald Trump is slated to receive a briefing on Thursday on plans for a series of military strikes on Iran in hopes it will return to negotiations on its nuclear programme, according to an Axios report late on Wednesday.
  The U.S. and Israel began air strikes on Iran on February 28 and it retaliated by closing off almost all shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for energy supplies from Middle Eastern producers. Amid a ceasefire that has paused active combat, the U.S. has imposed a blockade on Iranian ports.
  
  Talks to resolve the conflict, which has killed thousands and caused what analysts say is the world’s biggest energy disruption ever, have deadlocked, with the U.S. insisting on discussing Iran’s alleged nuclear weapons programme and Iran demanding some control over the strait and reparations for damage from the war.
  "The oil market has moved from over-optimism to the reality of the supply disruption we are seeing in the Persian Gulf," said ING analysts in a note.
  In a sign the conflict and resulting energy supply disruptions are set to continue for longer, Trump spoke on Wednesday with oil companies about how to mitigate the impact of a possible months-long U.S. blockade, a White House official said.
  "Prospects for any near-term resolution to the Iran conflict or a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remain dim," IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said in a note.
  The OPEC+ grouping of members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies is likely to agree a small increase of around 188,000 barrels per day in oil output quotas on Sunday, sources told Reuters on Wednesday.
  The meeting comes just after the United Arab Emirates’ withdrawal from OPEC, effective May 1, which is expected to deal a blow to the oil producer group’s ability to control prices. Although the Gulf nation’s exit would allow it to raise production after exports restart, analysts say that is unlikely to affect market fundamentals this year, especially with the Hormuz closure and other production disruptions from the war.
  "Gulf countries, including the UAE, will take months to return to pre-war production volumes," Wood Mackenzie analysts said in a note. Source: Reuters/Investing.com
- 2026-04-30
  Hormuz Blockage Boosts Panama Canal Oil Tanker Traffic
  Oil tanker traffic through the Panama Canal has jumped in recent weeks as Asia scrambles to buy U.S. crude amid choked supply from the Middle East. The Panama Canal, the fastest route for American energy exports to Asia on smaller vessels, is at its... Read more Oil tanker traffic through the Panama Canal has jumped in recent weeks as Asia scrambles to buy U.S. crude amid choked supply from the Middle East.
  
  The Panama Canal, the fastest route for American energy exports to Asia on smaller vessels, is at its busiest for U.S. crude exports in four years as the closed Strait of Hormuz has forced Asian buyers to source oil from regions other than the Middle East.
  
  The price of booking a last-minute slot to have a tanker pass through the Panama Canal has nearly tripled to almost $400,000 since the Iran war began, with one oil product tanker famously paying ten times the transit fee, $4 million, to carry fuel to Singapore after diverting away from its original destination in Europe.
  
  Despite the notable uptick in oil tanker traffic, the Panama Canal cannot replace the Strait of Hormuz, due to its geographical location and the smaller size of its locks, which cannot handle the passage of very large crude carriers, the supertankers capable of shipping up to 2 million barrels of oil each.
  
  The Panama Canal handled ten times lower crude and petroleum volumes in the first half of 2025 than the Strait of Hormuz, EIA data showed. Between January and June 2025, 2.3 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil and petroleum liquids were transported through the Panama Canal, compared to 20.9 million bpd that moved through the Strait of Hormuz.
  Related: Pakistan PM: Oil Import Costs Up 167% Since Iran War Began
  
  While the Panama Canal is not a viable alternative to the Strait of Hormuz, due to logistical and geographical constraints, it is increasingly being used as an energy transit point from the U.S. Gulf Coast to Asia. Amid the Hormuz crisis, Japan, South Korea, India, and China are pivoting to U.S. barrels to partly replace the shock loss of Middle Eastern supply.
  
  U.S. oil exports via the Panama Canal have exceeded 200,000 bpd this month and are close to the highest level since July 2022, according to Kpler data cited by Bloomberg.
  
  Shippers are also paying astronomical sums to jump the line and secure a last-minute slot to move oil cargoes through the Canal.
  
  For vessels that have not booked slots in advance, the Panama Canal offers options such as last-minute reservations and an auction mechanism, with three to five slots made available through auction each day.
  
  The average auction price for a slot at the Canal was between $135,000 and $140,000 before the Middle East conflict began. After the war, that average surged to about $385,000 between March and April, the Panama Canal Vice President of Finance, Víctor Vial, said last week in the latest update on the traffic by the Panama Canal Authority.
  
  “There is strong performance coming from container traffic and liquefied petroleum gas. Energy products are playing an increasingly important role in the volumes we are handling here at the Panama Canal,” the Administrator, Ricaurte Vásquez Morales, added.
  
  Total traffic through the Panama Canal increased by 5% between October 2025 and March 2026, with daily averages of 34 vessels in January and 37 in March, and peak days recently surpassing 40 transits, the Canal Authority noted.
  
  In an anecdotal example of how shippers are willing to splurge to have tankers moved through the Panama Canal to deliver oil and petroleum products where they are fetching the highest prices, one company has recently paid $4 million for a transit slot, Vásquez told the Associated Press last week.
  
  “It was a ship carrying fuel to Europe, and they redirected it to Singapore, and it needed to get there because Singapore is running out of fuel,” the administrator told AP.
  
  The Panama Canal will not replace the Strait of Hormuz, but the increased oil tanker traffic and soaring slot fees at the North American transit route suggest that global oil trade routes have fundamentally changed since the start of the Iran war. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-04-30
  Venezuelan Crude Will Eventually Lower US Gas Prices: Chevron Exec
  The current average price for gasoline in the US is $4.17 per gallon, according to AAA’s April 28 data. That’s 15 cents higher than a week ago and $1.02 more than the year-ago average, or a 32% increase. President Trump recently said he expects... Read more The current average price for gasoline in the US is $4.17 per gallon, according to AAA’s April 28 data.
  
  That’s 15 cents higher than a week ago and $1.02 more than the year-ago average, or a 32% increase.
  
  President Trump recently said he expects higher gas prices to last until at least the November mid-term elections.
  
  Prices are based on the price of crude oil, which accounts for 40-70% of the cost at the pump. The Brent crude international price of oil is currently about $110 per barrel. It was $70.75 the day before the US and Israel attacked Iran, which translates to an increase of 56%.
  
  The United States is the world’s top oil producer at 21.91 million barrels of oil per day (Mbopd), followed by Saudi Arabia at 11.13 Mbopd and Russia at 10.75 Mbopd, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
  
  The US imports little crude oil from the Middle East, roughly 8% in 2025. While the United States is unlikely to see energy shortages as the war with Iran drags on — unlike some countries — it does mean that US gas prices will continue to be influenced by the higher price of oil.
  
  However, according to a Chevron (NYSE:CVX) executive, prices would be even higher if it wasn’t for the crude oil the United States has begun importing from Venezuela.
  
  Currently the only American oil company operating in Venezuela, Chevron is bringing in tankers filled with 400,000 barrels of oil to its Pascagoula refinery in Mississippi, which can process a maximum of 330,000 barrels a day of heavy crude oil like Venezuela’s into gasoline and other oil end products including diesel, jet fuel, LPG, petroleum coke and petrochemicals.
  
  Andy Walz, Chevron’s president of downstream, midstream and chemicals, told a CBS News reporter that there was a period when Chevron couldn’t get access to Venezuelan crude.
  
  “Now we're running about 100,000 barrels a day so this will last us about four days,” he said. “This ship is lowering prices in America because we have access to a new supply point that we didn't have previously.”
  
  Asked whether gas would be more than $4/gallon without the tankers, Walz said “I'm not going to say a lot, but we would be paying more. Less supply means higher price.”
  
  BBC News clarified that, while access to Venezuela’s vast oil reserves — the world’s largest — hasn’t yet meant lower gas prices, because the US is just as susceptible to global oil market fluctuations as other countries, Chevron believes its bet on Venezuelan crude will end up benefitting consumers.
  
  “When things do get back to normal, that additional supply out of Venezuela will actually translate to lower prices for Americans. So it will in the future, but it isn't having an impact now,” Walz said.
  
  He added that Chevron plans to increase its Venezuelan production by about 50% over the next couple of years. The company currently imports the equivalent of 250,000 barrels of Venezuelan crude per day, so a 50% increase would bump it up to 350,000 to 400,000 bopd.
  
  Venezuela is gradually increasing its oil production after its president, Nicolas Maduro, was captured and brought to the United States to stand trial on narcoterrorism and other charges.
  
  Despite hosting about 17% of global supply, because of dilapidated infrastructure, the country only produces about 1% of the world's oil.
  
  However, during March, the country exported 1 million bopd for the first time since September.
  
  PBS News reported the Trump administration “selectively” removed sanctions to enable the shipping and sale of Venezuelan oil.
  
  Various estimates agree that Venezuela needs to generate more than $100 billion over the next decade to restore its oil production capacity, UPI reported this week. Just maintaining 1.1 Mbopd would require investments exceeding $50 billion, according to consulting firm Rystad Energy. To get to 3Mbopd, Venezuela would need about $183 billion.
  
  Fortune wrote that Arguably the best-case scenario for Venezuelan oil production is it grows from producing nearly 1 million barrels of oil a day late last year to churning out about 1.2 million barrels daily by the end of 2026, said Francisco Monaldi, director of the Latin America Energy Program at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy.
  
  The magazine noted momentum is building, with Venezuela passing new laws to open the industry to outside investment. Chevron has agreed to expand its largest project in the country’s Orinoco Belt, Shell (NYSE:SHEL) plans to develop “gassier regions” onshore and offshore, and Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) plans to send a small team to Venezuela to assess the situation.
  
  Meanwhile, oilfield services companies have started moving rigs and specialized equipment stored in warehouses for years, for assembly and repair, as the government advances a review of oil and gas contracts that could lead to fresh activity, Reuters said this week, citing four sources involved in the preparations.
  
  Washington in 2019 imposed sanctions on the country’s energy sector, limiting activities of U.S. service firms including SLB, Halliburton, Baker Hughes and Weatherford International.
  
  The equipment being dusted off would service projects operated by joint ventures between state-run PDVSA and private companies in the Orinoco Belt and Lake Maracaibo, the country’s two main oil regions.
  
  Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-04-30
  MABUX: Global bunker market to extend gains on Apr. 30 amid geopolitical pressure.
  The MABUX World Bunker Index — a composite benchmark reflecting daily prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO, and MGO — demonstrated a steady upward trend on Apr. 29: 380 HSFO: USD/MT: 765.04 (+6.09) VLSFO: USD/MT 914.02 (+6.46) MGO: USD/MT 1 462.01 (+1.96) As... Read more The MABUX World Bunker Index — a composite benchmark reflecting daily prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO, and MGO — demonstrated a steady upward trend on Apr. 29:
  
  380 HSFO: USD/MT: 765.04 (+6.09)
  VLSFO: USD/MT 914.02 (+6.46)
  MGO: USD/MT 1 462.01 (+1.96)
  
  As of Apr. 29, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI), which tracks the deviation between Market Bunker Prices (MBP) and the MABUX Digital Bunker Benchmark (DBP), showed the following dynamics across key hubs (Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, Houston):
  
  • HSFO segment: All four ports were in the undercharge zone. The underpricing widened further by $1 in Rotterdam, $5 in Singapore, $3 in Fujairah, and $9 in Houston. MDI values in Rotterdam and Singapore continued to exceed the $100 mark.
  
  • VLSFO segment: Houston remained the only overcharged port, although its premium narrowed by $16. The other hubs were undercharged: discounts were unchanged in Singapore and narrowed by $2 in Rotterdam and $1 in Fujairah. MDI levels in Rotterdam and Singapore stayed above $100.
  
  • MGO LS segment: Rotterdam, Singapore, and Houston were undercharged. Discounts narrowed by $53 in Rotterdam and $1 in Singapore, while widening by $4 in Houston. Fujairah was the only overcharged port, while its premium increasing by $93. Rotterdam’s MDI fell below the $100 threshold, while Fujairah’s MDI approached this level.
  
  The global bunker market is expected to maintain its upward trajectory on Apr. 30, as persistent geopolitical tensions and reports of a possible extension of the U.S. blockade of Iran’s ports, coupled with the absence of tangible preconditions for de-escalation in the Middle East, continue to drive high volatility and sustain upward price momentum, with MABUX anticipating a notable increase in bunker prices: 380 HSFO: plus 15-35 USD/MT, VLSFO: plus 20–40 USD/MT, MGO LS: plus 20–50 USD/MT.
  Source: MABUX
- 2026-04-30
  EIA: US Crude Oil Inventories Crashing, But Holding Above Average
  Crude oil inventories in the United States decreased by 6.2 million barrels during the week ending April 24, according to new data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released on Wednesday. The decrease brings commercial stockpiles to... Read more Crude oil inventories in the United States decreased by 6.2 million barrels during the week ending April 24, according to new data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released on Wednesday. The decrease brings commercial stockpiles to 459.5 million barrels according to government data, which is still 1% above the five-year average for this time of year, despite a flurry of weekly losses.
  
  The EIA’s data release follows API’s figures that were released a day earlier, which reported that crude oil inventories saw a draw of 1.79 million barrels in the period.
  
  Crude prices were on the rise Wednesday morning. At 9:42 a.m. in New York, Brent was trading at $116.70 per barrel—up $5.43 (+4.88%) on the day, and up roughly $17 per barrel from this time last week. WTI was also trading up on the day, by $4.65 per barrel (+4.65%) in early morning trade at $104.60, up nearly $15 per barrel week over week.
  
  For total motor gasoline, the EIA reported that inventories had decreased by 6.1 million barrels on top of the 4.6 million barrels lost in the week prior. The most recent figures showed average daily gasoline production decreased to 9.8 million barrels. For middle distillates, inventories decreased by 4.5 million barrels with production decreasing to an average of 4.9 million barrels daily. Distillate inventories are now 11% below the five-year average.
  
  Total products supplied—a proxy for U.S. oil demand—averaged 20.6 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, up 4.6% compared to the same period last year. Gasoline demand averaged 9.0 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, while the distillate four-week average supplied averaged 4.0 million barrels—up 4.8% percent year over year. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-04-30
  U.S. Military Buildup Signals Rising Risk of Wider Middle East War
  As its cease-fire with Iran falters, the United States is significantly expanding its military capabilities in the Middle East, giving Washington the option of escalating the two-month-long conflict. The US military deployed a third aircraft carrier... Read more As its cease-fire with Iran falters, the United States is significantly expanding its military capabilities in the Middle East, giving Washington the option of escalating the two-month-long conflict.
  
  The US military deployed a third aircraft carrier strike group with thousands of elite troops to the region on April 24, marking the largest buildup since the invasion of Iraq in 2003.
  
  In force since April 8, the truce paused a costly war that has rattled international energy markets and upended the global economy. But Washington and Tehran have accused each other of violating the cease-fire, and attempts to negotiate an end to the war are deadlocked.
  
  President Donald Trump said the United States has used the cessation of hostilities to “restock” and warned that the American military was “ready to go” if peace efforts fail. Trump has previously threatened to wipe out Iran’s civilian infrastructure if a deal is not reached.
  
  Experts say the expanding US military deployment is intended to serve two purposes: send a political message to Tehran and give Trump options to widen the scale of military action against the Islamic Republic.
  
  “It's meant to increase the credibility of US threats, and therefore its leverage in negotiations,” said Dr. Farzan Sabet, an Iran expert at the Geneva Graduate Institute. “It's also meant to better position the US should it restart hostilities to further weaken Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.”
  
  The US-Israeli bombing campaign launched on February 28 has devastated Iran's military, decapitated much of its leadership, and destroyed critical infrastructure. But Tehran still believes it is winning the war. Iran's theocracy has survived and obtained a new and powerful card: control of the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global oil and gas supplies.
  
  In response to Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the United States has imposed a naval blockade on the Middle Eastern country’s ports and vessels since April 13. While the move has intensified pressure on Iran’s already battered economy, the barricade has yet to force Tehran into accepting a peace deal on US terms.
  
  'A Lot Of Concern'
  
  Carrying over 5,000 elite troops, the USS George HW Bush significantly boosts the US military’s capabilities in the region. Able to support over 80 aircraft, the carrier is powered by nuclear reactors.
  
  It joins two other carriers: the USS Abraham Lincoln, which has been positioned in the Arabian Sea south of Iran since the start of the war, and the USS Gerald R Ford, the US Navy’s most powerful transporter.
  
  Besides sending a third carrier group to the Middle East, the US military has also deployed thousands of additional troops to the region in recent weeks. Thousands more Marines, paratroopers, and sailors are expected to arrive by the end of the month.
  
  Iranian officials have not publicly commented on the expanding US military buildup. But experts say Tehran believes the United States is preparing to resume hostilities.
  
  “The Iranian regime is viewing the continuing US military deployments to the region with a lot of concern,” said Farzin Nadimi, an Iran defense expert at the Washington Institute.
  
  “The mere fact that the Iranians agreed to talk with the Americans despite their increasing military posture shows how vulnerable they are feeling right now.”
  
  Still, he added, Iran is “continuing to prepare for the next fight, and it will hardly be surprised” if the United States restarts the war.
  
  Tehran, too, has been signaling that it could use military action to end the US naval blockade, which has disrupted Iran’s vital exports.
  
  The Khatam Al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, which serves as Iran's joint military command, on April 25 warned that it would respond if the United States continued its blockade.
  
  The US Navy has seized an Iranian cargo vessel and a tanker suspected of smuggling Iranian oil in recent weeks. On April 22, Tehran responded by firing on three ships and seizing two of them in the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of the world’s oil usually passes.
  
  Holding Off The Houthis
  
  If hostilities break out again, Yemen’s Houthi rebels could attempt to close the Bab al-Mandab Strait -- another crucial shipping route in the Middle East.
  
  Accounting for around 6 percent of the world’s seaborne-traded oil, the Bab al-Mandab is a narrow passage for ships entering or exiting the Red Sea -- whose Yemeni coastline is largely controlled by the Houthi rebels, a US-designated terrorist organization and armed group backed by Iran.
  
  In a statement on April 18, the Houthis threatened to close the strait and called on Trump to stop "all peace-obstructing practices and policies."
  
  If the Houthis close the strait, experts say, there will be even more shockwaves in global energy markets. The militant group entered the war last month when it fired missiles at Israel.
  
  The deployment of the USS George HW Bush, experts say, is intended to deter the Houthis from closing the strategic waterway.
  
  “With the arrival of a third carrier strike group, the US aims to reassure global shipping while maintaining a two-carrier force ready to engage Iran if needed,” said Sascha Bruchmann, a military and security affairs analyst at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies.
  
  To bypass the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest exporter of oil, has been redirecting millions of barrels of oil from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea via its East-West pipeline.
  
  The United Arab Emirates, another major exporter, has been shipping oil through its Fujairah port located in the Arabian Sea.
  
  “The USS George HW Bush seems postured to make it clear that targeting the oil infrastructure in western Saudi Arabia and the closure of Bab al-Mandab will have consequences,” added Bruchmann.
  
  Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-04-30
  Brent Breaks $113 as Traders Brace for Months of Disruption
  Oil prices continued to climb in early Asian trade on Thursday, with traders pricing in a prolonged disruption to Middle East supply flows as inventories continue to shrink. Brent crude for July delivery climbed to $113.09, up 2.65%, while West Texas... Read more Oil prices continued to climb in early Asian trade on Thursday, with traders pricing in a prolonged disruption to Middle East supply flows as inventories continue to shrink.
  
  Brent crude for July delivery climbed to $113.09, up 2.65%, while West Texas Intermediate rose 2.28% to trade at $109.30. Notably, the expiring front-month Brent contract was trading at over $121, highlighting just how tight prompt supply has become in the region.
  
  The latest rally has come on the back of failed diplomatic efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and a continuing U.S. military buildup in the region. On Tuesday, President Trump met with oil industry leaders to discuss market stability and the possibility that the conflict would continue for months, a further signal to the oil market that there is no relief coming any time soon.
  
  Tehran has effectively restricted most non-Iranian shipping through Hormuz since late February, while Washington has escalated pressure by blockading most Iranian-linked vessels. The result is what the IEA director described as the biggest energy crisis in history.
  
  Alongside geopolitical risk, tightening inventory data is adding to upward pressure on oil prices, with the EIA reporting steep declines in both crude and gasoline stocks.
  
  Meanwhile, OPEC+ is expected to announce a modest output increase of around 188,000 barrels per day at its Sunday meeting, according to Reuters' sources. The move comes just days after the UAE confirmed it would leave the group effective May 1, a decision is sure to weaken OPEC+ over time.
  
  In the short term, the UAE's decision to leave OPEC and OPEC+ is unlikely to have an impact on the market due to physical limitations of getting any more supply online. In the medium term, particularly if the Strait of Hormuz crisis is solved, the development could mean a significant volume of new supply.
  
  For now, prices are set to continue trending higher as physical markets continue to tighten and neither Iran nor the U.S. appears ready to bring the current conflict to an end. With an ever-growing U.S. military footprint in the region, there is a significant upside risk for oil if a major escalation leads to further supply outages and the closing of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
  
  Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-04-30
  Pakistan PM: Oil Import Costs Up 167% Since Iran War Began
  Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced on Wednesday that the country’s oil import bill has jumped 167% to $800 million per week amid the war in Iran from around $300 million weekly before the conflict began. Brent crude for June delivery was... Read more Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced on Wednesday that the country’s oil import bill has jumped 167% to $800 million per week amid the war in Iran from around $300 million weekly before the conflict began. Brent crude for June delivery was trading at $114.75 per barrel at 7.00 am ET on Wednesday, a big jump from the low 70s before the war, while the corresponding WTI crude contract was changing hands at $103.33/bbl from mid 60s in late February.
  
  According to Prime Minister Sharif, the spike in fuel prices has “dented the collective efforts” of the past two years to stabilize Pakistan’s economy.
  
  Pakistan’s economy remains highly vulnerable to global oil price volatility, with recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East reinforcing this cycle. Pakistan’s total oil consumption hovers around 440,000 bpd, five times domestic production of 80,000-90,000 bpd, forcing the country to rely on imports to meet 80% of its needs. Elevated global oil prices have caused petrol prices in Pakistan to hit unprecedented highs, driving up transportation, energy, and overall consumer costs.
  
  Additionally, when oil prices rise, the country must spend more of its limited foreign exchange reserves, often leading to currency devaluation, which makes everything else more expensive. Economists warn that persistent high energy prices could slow GDP growth to 1.8% for FY27, down from earlier estimates of 3.2%.
  
  The Pakistani government is aggressively implementing nationwide energy conservation measures to mitigate a severe fuel crisis with some degree of success. Public sector offices are moving to a four-day work week, with 50% of staff working from home, except for essential services. Markets, shopping malls and commercial centers across the country (except for Sindh, where consultations are ongoing) are required to close by 8:00 pm local time while restaurants, cafes and bakeries are required to shut by 10:00 pm. Approximately 60% of official vehicles have been grounded, and fuel allowances for government departments slashed by 50%.
  
  The PM has reported that these measures are bearing fruit, with fuel consumption beginning to fall. Source: Oilprice.com

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