Mabux: Global Bunker Prices

LNG BUNKER PAGE
- LNG bunker indexes
- OIL/GAS futures settlements
- LNG bunker news
- LNG fuel energy content
SEE LNG BUNKER INDEXES
MARKET BUNKER PRICES (MBP)
- 400+ ports worldwide
- Bunker Price History available from 2002
- Supplier's contact details
- Price forecast short (1 day) and long (rolling forward 2 years)
- Differentials section: VLSFO/380 HSFO, VLSFO/MGO LS, MGO LS/VLSFO
See Market Bunker Prices
DIGITAL BUNKER PRICES (DBP:ICE/NYMEX)
- Price adjustments to the Bunker Market's volatility instantly
- Completely independent
- Free from price manipulations
- Unique tool to identify overcharge/undercharge prices
See Digital Bunker Prices for free

MABUX ARA LNG Bunker Index
Port LNG$/mton MGO LS$/mton Date
ARA
995.00
-32.00
1 220.00
+10.00
Apr 13
Click to see more LNG Bunker Indexes

Port	LNG$/mton	MGO LS$/mton	Date
ARA	995.00	-32.00	1 220.00	+10.00	Apr 13

MABUX Global Bunker Index

380HSFO$/mton		VLS FO$/mton		MGO LS$/mton		Date
751.07	-0.97	880.43	+1.79	1 439.70	+1.91	Apr 17

Click to see Regional Bunker Indexes

MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI)

Correlation between market bunker prices (MBP) and MABUX Digital Bunker Price Benchmark (DBP)

All Indexes in $/mton	380HSFO			VLS FO			MGO LS			Date
All Indexes in $/mton	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	Date
Rotterdam	612	694	-82	655	772	-117	1 220	1 315	-95	Apr 17
Singapore	660	723	-63	724	860	-136	1 382	1 308	+74	Apr 17
Fujairah	614	668	-54	713	829	-116	1 495	1 371	+124	Apr 17
Houston	623	704	-81	837	818	+19	1 195	1 220	-25	Apr 17

Click to see more details

Digital Bunker Prices
Reasons, Mechanism, Benefits
Click to view presentation

Try free for 3 days

Analytical Section
- Daily and Weekly Bunker analyses and Future Curves
- World and regional Bunker indices
- Bunker Price Forecast for 40+ ports
- Digital Bunker Prices
MABUX for Industry
- API for integration with your application, custom solutions available upon demand
- Bunker market analyses upon request for required region or port
- Bunker Price seminars that allow to learn how to use MABUX tools for bunker business
- MABUX Open Bunker Directory features contact details of bunker suppliers, traders and brokers worldwide.
Latest News
- 2026-04-17
  Oil falls on prospects for talks to end Iran war and revive supply
  Oil prices fell in early trade on Friday on optimism the Middle East conflict could be nearing an end after a 10-day ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel took effect and President Donald Trump said the U.S. and Iran may meet for talks on the weekend. Brent... Read more Oil prices fell in early trade on Friday on optimism the Middle East conflict could be nearing an end after a 10-day ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel took effect and President Donald Trump said the U.S. and Iran may meet for talks on the weekend.
  Brent crude futures declined by $1.34, or 1.35%, to $98.05 a barrel at 0021 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell $1.65, or 1.74%, to $93.40 a barrel, trimming gains from the previous session.
  Addressing a key sticking point in talks to end the Iran war, which has closed the Strait of Hormuz for seven weeks and choked off roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply, Trump said Tehran had offered not to possess nuclear weapons for more than 20 years.
  
  "We’re going to see what happens. But I think we’re very close to making a deal with Iran," Trump told reporters outside the White House on Thursday.
  Oil prices climbed 50% in March in a record run and have only recently fallen below the $100 per barrel mark but have stayed within the $90 range for the week.
  Israel’s campaign in Lebanon has been a major obstacle to securing a peace deal sought by Trump to end the war on Iran he launched with Israel in late February.
  U.S. and Iranian negotiators have scaled back their expectations for a comprehensive peace deal and are instead seeking a temporary memorandum to prevent a return to conflict, two Iranian sources told Reuters on Thursday.
  
  Analysts from ING estimate that roughly 13 million barrels per day of oil flow has been disrupted by the closure of the Strait. Source: Reuters/Investing.com
- 2026-04-17
  What’s Next for Oil Prices?
  Oil prices have held steady below $100 per barrel since the U.S. on Monday initiated a naval blockade to deter Iran-linked ships from passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The three days of calmer oil futures markets so far this week aren’t expected... Read more Oil prices have held steady below $100 per barrel since the U.S. on Monday initiated a naval blockade to deter Iran-linked ships from passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
  
  The three days of calmer oil futures markets so far this week aren’t expected to last long amid the volatile geopolitical situation at the world’s most vital oil shipping lane.
  
  The price of oil has the potential to either surge to new highs or slump to pre-war levels, depending on the U.S.-Iran talks, but most of all—on the status of navigability of the Strait of Hormuz and how fast some semblance of normal traffic could eventually resume.
  
  For now, despite the U.S. blockade and Central Command’s claim that the blockade is a major success, traffic of non-Iranian vessels hasn’t been restored, while some Iran-flagged ships have been observed by vessel-tracking providers to have successfully breached the blockade.
  
  Globally, physical supply remains severely constrained, as evidenced by $150 per barrel prices for some non-Middle Eastern crudes that refiners are willing to pay for. The price of physical crude for immediate delivery has soared amid the supply constraints and is about $40 per barrel more expensive than the futures.
  
  But the futures market moves on headlines and sentiment, and right now it pins its hopes on the prospect of renewed U.S.-Iran talks, possibly as soon as this week.
  
  For analysts, forecasting oil prices has become even more guesswork than ever before, as uncertainties and conflicting messages from the Trump Administration have reduced visibility on price projections to near zero.
  
  Goldman Sachs, for example, this week kept its average Brent and WTI forecasts for 2026, at $83 and $78 per barrel, respectively. The investment bank, however, flagged both upside and downside risks to these projections.
  
  Upside vs Downside Risks
  
  Low oil flow volumes through the Strait of Hormuz pose the biggest upside risk, according to a Goldman note cited by Reuters. The Wall Street bank’s analysts estimated that oil flows are only 10% of pre-war levels at just 2.1 million barrels per day (bpd), and no LNG has yet passed the Strait since the war began on February 28.
  
  “The ceasefire has diminished the risk premium and the probability of very lengthy and large supply losses,” Daan Struyven, Goldman Sachs co-head of global commodities research, told CNBC’s ‘Squawk on the Street’ program on Wednesday.
  
  “At the same time the flows through the Strait are taking time to recover, so net it’s still upside to the forecast,” Struyven added.
  
  Goldman has quantified the current damage to supply at about 10-11 million bpd, while demand losses are perhaps offsetting about 3 million bpd of these, the strategist said.
  
  Demand losses are already very significant in Asia, especially in the aviation and petrochemicals sector. The longer the demand destruction in Asia lasts, the more it would spread to other continents and to other product markets, Struyven noted.
  
  Goldman Sachs kept its price forecasts unchanged from last week as it assumes that the flows at the Strait of Hormuz would begin to recover and reach near-normal by the middle of May, and Gulf countries’ upstream production takes until mid-June to recover, Struyven told CNBC.
  
  Last week, Goldman Sachs warned that Brent Crude is expected to average above $100 per barrel this year if the Strait of Hormuz remains mostly shut to tanker traffic for another month.
  
  If the severely limited traffic at the Strait of Hormuz continues for longer than another month, this would lead to additional loss of upstream production in the Middle East. In this case, Brent Crude prices could average $120 per barrel in the third quarter and $115 in the final quarter of the year, according to Goldman Sachs.
  
  On the downside for oil prices, the bank estimates that the production shut-ins in the Persian Gulf are lower than previously feared. Moreover, there is significant demand destruction – due to spiking prices and shortages – which allows the market to rebalance with “slightly less elevated prices” than it would have otherwise, Struyven said.
  
  Other analysts also flag firmly two-sided risk to their outlooks.
  
  The oil futures market is steady or lower amid hopes that the U.S. and Iran would extend their ceasefire by another two weeks, along with a potential resumption in talks to bring an end to the war, ING commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said in a Thursday note.
  
  “However, the physical market is becoming tighter every day that passes without a restart of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz,” they noted.
  
  After taking into consideration pipeline diversions and the trickle of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, ING estimates that roughly 13 million bpd has been disrupted and “with the US blockade, this number could creep higher.”
  
  Scandinavian bank SEB assumes in its base-case scenario that the Strait of Hormuz would operate at only 20% of normal capacity until mid-May before full reopening, and that no further major oil or gas infrastructure in the Persian Gulf is damaged.
  
  Yet, SEB reiterated in a Wednesday note that “the SoH is not Trump's alone to reopen” as Iran could opt to retain some control even if a deal is reached.
  
  “The risk to our outlook is firmly two-sided: faster diplomacy could bring prices down materially from here, while a breakdown in talks or, worse, infrastructure damage could send financial Brent contracts violently higher, while also pushing Dated Brent decisively above USD 150/bl,” Ole Hvalbye, Analyst Commodities at SEB, wrote. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-04-17
  Oil Markets Reprice War Risk After Congress Rejects Iran Pullback
  Oil markets clawed back their recent losses, with oil prices rallying after Congress voted in favor of keeping the U.S. military in Iran. The House rejected a resolution requiring President Trump to withdraw U.S. forces from the conflict with Iran, with... Read more Oil markets clawed back their recent losses, with oil prices rallying after Congress voted in favor of keeping the U.S. military in Iran. The House rejected a resolution requiring President Trump to withdraw U.S. forces from the conflict with Iran, with Republicans largely supporting continued intervention, citing the need to tackle Iran's nuclear capabilities. Brent crude for June delivery gained 4.7% to trade at $101.7 per barrel 6:.44 pm ET on Thursday, while WTI crude spiked over 4% immediately after the vote, but by evening was trading down 1.38% at $93.38/bbl. The resolution failed in a razor-thin 213-214 vote following a similar result in the Senate just one day prior, with voting largely along partisan lines and Republicans unified behind Trump. While the bid to end the war failed, some Republicans have demanded that the administration should soon present a clear exit ramp or authorization of force to define the operation's limits as it nears the 60-day War Powers Act deadline around May 1. Critics of the continued engagement have highlighted the death of at least 13 U.S. service members, billions in spending and soaring domestic gas prices.
  
  The failure of the resolution has renewed fears of a prolonged conflict and high fuel prices amid the likelihood of losing even more barrels from the market. According to oil and commodity analysts at Standard Chartered, the US-imposed counter blockade could remove an extra 1.5-1.8mb/d of Iranian crude from the market, mostly destined for China, increasing its exposure to the conflict.
  
  StanChart notes that whereas front-month prices have surged above $120/bbl during spikes, the long-dated or back-end of the curve is stabilizing in the $68–$70 range. Front-month Brent contracts are trading at a big premium over deferred contracts: the spread between 1st and 12th positions has widened, indicating the market is paying a premium for instant delivery to replace disrupted Middle Eastern supplies. The steepness is being driven by the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports and resulting constraints on seaborne crude trade. The market is in effect actively pricing a high war premium that is expected to fade over time, rather than a permanent structural shortage. However, StanChart has predicted that oil prices will remain $10-20/bbl higher than pre-conflict levels, supported by purchases for strategic reserves, a focus on resource nationalism and hoarding, as well as the logistical lags caused by the disruption.
  
  StanChart has also highlighted several risks that could emerge as a result of the counter-blockade by the United States. First off, Iran may respond by calling on the Houthis to attack vessels transiting the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, the southern exit route from the Red Sea and one of the two exits that Saudi Arabian crude exports can currently take. Currently, the Houthis have a ceasefire agreement with the U.S. that was signed in May 2025. This would present an acute escalation of the conflict, with the ceasefire having worked well so far other than random strikes on Israeli positions. Second, the deployment of many more military vessels in the Strait of Hormuz increases the operational risk of an incident that could open the doors to further escalations or broader maritime tensions that spill outside the Gulf. Finally, increased risk of delays, inspections and interdictions is likely to result in even higher freight and insurance costs. The conflict has triggered a dramatic surge in shipping costs, with war risk insurance premiums spiking by 200% to 300%. Premiums for passing through the Gulf have skyrocketed from 0.02%–0.05% of the vessel's value to 5%-10%. The conflict is pushing ships toward longer routes, including around the Cape of Good Hope, which adds significant transit time and costs.
  
  In contrast to volatile oil markets, natural gas markets continue to cope remarkably well with the near-term loss of the majority of Middle East gas supply. StanChart notes that the disruption to Qatari and UAE LNG cargoes is being broadly balanced by expected LNG supply growth in 2026, most notably from the U.S. Indeed, expected volumes to be delivered over the next couple of years outweigh current and expected reductions, which is containing the market shortfall and associated price reaction. U.S. gas prices have cooled off considerably, with Henry Hub prices pulling back from above $7.40/MMBtu when the war started in late February to $2.65/MMBtu currently. Meanwhile, European natural gas futures were trading at €42.42 per MMBtu on Thursday, a sharp pullback from above €60 per MMBtu a month ago.
  
  That said, StanChart notes that Europe and Asia will be in competition for gas supplies in the summer months, with Europe looking to replenish relatively tight storage inventories. The analysts see this supporting prices to potentially over €80 per megawatt hour (MWh). StanChart is also bullish about U.S. gas thanks to increasing domestic demand for data-centre power generation, heating/cooling and export demand for LNG in the medium term. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-04-17
  U.K. Industry Chief Urges Approval of North Sea Oil Projects
  The boss of Britain’s largest industry body has called on the government to green-light extraction from two major North Sea oil fields and slash the windfall tax on domestic oil production in a bid to revitalise the country’s ailing oil and gas industry. CBI... Read more The boss of Britain’s largest industry body has called on the government to green-light extraction from two major North Sea oil fields and slash the windfall tax on domestic oil production in a bid to revitalise the country’s ailing oil and gas industry.
  
  CBI chief Rain Newton Smith said the North Sea was a “critical part” of the UK’s energy transition and that removing the additional tax on domestic producer profits and waving through the Jackdaw and Rosebank projects would encourage investment and economic activity.
  
  “[The energy profits levy] is reducing investment at the moment in the North Sea” she told the BBC’s Today programme. “That needs to be reformed. There are proposals on the table that the government are considering – hey should implement them now and be clear that they’re going to encourage that investment and existing extraction.”
  
  Newton-Smith, who has been director general at the CBI for three years, also demanded that energy secretary Ed Miliband approve two major oil and gas projects off the north-west coast of Scotland. Operators of the Rosebank and Jackdaw fields were both barred from kicking off extraction last year, after a High Court judge ruled the licences had been granted unlawfully.
  
  “Those should be given approval which will help our existing oil and gas extraction,” Newton-Smith said. “It won’t help the overall cost of energy… but it will impact jobs, and investment, and tax revenue from the North Sea, which are a critical part of the skills we need for that energy transition.”
  
  Government resists calls to ramp up North Sea expansion
  
  The outbreak of war in the Middle East has added to pressure on the government to overrule the decision as a means of securing UK energy production and helping protect jobs during the energy crisis. Newton-Smith’s remarks echo a previous intervention from the think tank run by former Prime Minister Tony Blair, which also urged ministers to accelerate “domestic supply to reduce reliance on volatile imports”.
  
  The North Sea’s Rosebank, which is majority-owned by the Norwegian state energy juggernaut Equinor, contains an estimated 300m-500m barrels of oil, making it the largest known untapped field in British waters. Shell’s Jackdaw gas field is believed to contain up to 250 million barrels of oil. The sites’ owners have suggested they could come online as early as 2027 if the extraction ban were to be lifted.
  
  Both fields already boast a government-approved licence, and so are seen by some analysts as a way to boost domestic petrochemical production without the government reneging on its flagship promise not to approve new exploration.
  
  But ministers have so far resisted pressure to green-light the projects. In a later interview on the Today programme, James Murray, chief secretary to the Treasury, refused to say whether ministers had come to a decision on the two fields’ future.
  
  “That’s a decision for the energy secretary to make,” he said, adding, “I’m talking about our broader policy about continuing to use oil and gas from the North Sea.” Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-04-17
  MABUX: Global bunker market to resume slight upward trend on Apr. 17.
  The MABUX World Bunker Index — a composite benchmark reflecting daily prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO, and MGO — showed mixed movements without a clear directional trend on Apr. 16: 380 HSFO: USD/MT: 752.04 (-4.14) VLSFO: USD/MT 878.64 (+1.12) MGO: USD/MT... Read more The MABUX World Bunker Index — a composite benchmark reflecting daily prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO, and MGO — showed mixed movements without a clear directional trend on Apr. 16:
  
  380 HSFO: USD/MT: 752.04 (-4.14)
  VLSFO: USD/MT 878.64 (+1.12)
  MGO: USD/MT 1 437.79 (-6.82)
  
  Singapore bunker prices continued to decline, while delivered premiums held relatively firm. Buyers are increasingly shifting focus to May deliveries rather than prompt dates, indicating more patient, forward-looking demand.
  Fujairah prices also softened, but inventory trends remain the key signal. Heavy distillate stocks dropped another 20% week-on-week to 3.906 million barrels—around half of prewar levels and a new low. This keeps the market structurally vulnerable to any Gulf disruption, despite easing headline prices.
  Overall, the bunker market is entering a normalization phase with friction: falling flat prices, resilient delivered premiums, and sustained support for forward deliveries where supply security still carries a premium.
  
  As of Apr. 16, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI) — reflecting the spread between Market Bunker Prices (MBP) and the MABUX Digital Bunker Benchmark (DBP) — indicates tightening mispricing levels across key global hubs (Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, Houston:
  
  • HSFO segment: All four ports were in the undercharge zone, with discounts widening by $18 in Rotterdam, $4 in Singapore, $7 in Fujairah, and $15 in Houston.
  
  • VLSFO segment: Houston remained the only overcharged port, with the premium unchanged at +$47. Other ports remained undercharged, with discounts widening by $6 in Rotterdam, $5 in Singapore, and $5 in Fujairah. Singapore’s MDI reached the $100 threshold.
  
  • MGO LS segment: Houston returned the undercharge zone, joining Rotterdam. Discounts increased by $15 in Rotterdam and $50 in Houston. Singapore and Fujairah stayed overpriced, though premiums narrowed by $35 and $30, respectively. Houston’s MDI approached the 100-percent correlation mark between MBP and DBP, while Fujairah’s MDI continued to exceed the $100 level.
  
  MABUX Global bunker market to resume slight upward trend on Apr. 17: plus 10-15 USD/MT, VLSFO: plus 10–20 USD/MT, MGO LS: plus 10–18 USD/MT..
  Source: MABUX
- 2026-04-17
  IMF Warns Of Potential Global Recession Amid High Oil Prices
  The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cut its economic outlook for the world economy and warned it could sink into a recession if the Iran war is not soon resolved. In its April 2026 World Economic Outlook, the Bretton Woods institution has predicted... Read more The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cut its economic outlook for the world economy and warned it could sink into a recession if the Iran war is not soon resolved. In its April 2026 World Economic Outlook, the Bretton Woods institution has predicted that global GDP will expand by 3.1% in the current year, down from its earlier projection of 3.4%, if the conflict is short-lived and oil prices soon normalize to around $82 per barrel. However, the IMF says the economy might expand by 2.5% if the tensions linger for long and oil prices average $100/barrel throughout the year, and only grow by 2.0% in case of deepening hostilities and infrastructure damage, putting the world on the edge of a recession. The outlook for the leading global economies is mixed. The IMF sees the U.S. economy as resilient and has predicted it will grow by 2.3% in 2026, buoyed by AI investment and recent tax cuts. Massive investment in artificial intelligence (AI), including data centers and advanced chips, is fundamentally restructuring the U.S. economy and acting as a primary growth engine. Big Tech firms and hyperscalers like Google, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and leading semiconductor chipmakers are investing hundreds of billions annually in AI infrastructure. Data center construction is similarly experiencing an unprecedented boom, with AI data center power demand in the U.S. projected to grow more than thirtyfold by 2035. These secular trends are driving a massive influx of capital, with AI-related investments expected to drive nearly 40% of GDP growth.
  
  In contrast, China’s growth forecast has been slashed to 4.4% in 2026 and 4.0% in 2027 due to higher energy costs and a depressed housing sector. Sustained high oil prices and increased shipping costs through the Strait of Hormuz are driving up the cost of raw materials and logistics for Chinese factories. Petrochemical and manufacturing industries are experiencing higher operating costs, operational disruptions and a slowdown in production. Higher energy costs tend to be difficult for Chinese firms to pass on to consumers, which is expected to narrow China’s trade surplus and weaken export competitiveness. However, China is not entirely helpless, with its large strategic petroleum reserves, strong government fiscal control, and aggressive, accelerated development of renewable energy acting as buffers and somewhat limiting the impact of the oil shock.
  
  India is a rare bright spot with growth upgraded marginally to 6.5% from 6.4%, reflecting strong economic resilience and momentum. The IMF notes that a significant reduction in additional US tariffs on Indian goods has lowered export costs. Following negotiations between President Trump and Prime Minister Modi, tariffs on many Indian goods were slashed from up to 50% down to 18%. Key beneficiaries of lower tariffs include gems, jewelry, textiles, pharmaceuticals, and electronics, with some items like specific diamonds and handicrafts achieving 0% duty access. Strong carryover momentum from high growth in 2025 (forecasts of as high as 7.4%), robust domestic consumption, and consistent investment momentum are also expected to provide a buffer against external shocks. Domestic consumption remains a primary growth engine in India, driven by a revival in rural demand and steady urban spending. Retail automobile sales and festive demand have bolstered this sector, with further support expected from potential income tax relief. India’s manufacturing sector is also expanding, supported by Production Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes. The services sector, including finance and IT, continue to be a strong growth driver, contributing to both GDP and export resilience. Meanwhile, government capital expenditure (capex) remains high, particularly in infrastructure, while private investment is showing signs of revival.
  
  The IMF has cut the Eurozone growth forecast by 0.2 points to 1.1%, mainly due to high energy dependence. Europe's energy import dependency remains a critical vulnerability, with nearly 60% of the European Union's energy needs met by net imports, leaving it highly susceptible to price shocks. Despite significant shifts away from Russian supplies, this reliance on foreign energy has repeatedly driven significant price volatility. While European gas consumption fell by 20% between 2021 and 2024, the EU still imports approximately 70% of its gas. The conflict in the Middle East has triggered a more than 70% jump in Europe’s gas prices, weighing heavily on industrial sectors.
  
  Finally, the International Monetary Fund has sharply lowered its 2026 growth forecast for Saudi Arabia to 3.1% from the 4.5% projection issued in January 2026, while the forecast for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region was cut by 2.8 points to 1.1%, mainly due to disruption in oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz.
  
  Iranian attacks have targeted major facilities like the Manifa oilfield and the East-West Pipeline, cutting production capacity by at least 600,000 bpd and creating widespread instability across the Kingdom’s energy sector. Overall, the Iran war is projected to cost GCC nations up to $200 billion in economic growth in the current year, with potential GDP contractions for some of the region’s economies.
  Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-04-17
  A Lebanon Ceasefire and Potential Iran Peace Talks Push Oil Prices Down
  Oil prices were once again under pressure in early Asian trade as a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon came into effect and President Trump suggested talks with Iran may resume this weekend. At the time of writing, WTI was trading at $93.26,... Read more Oil prices were once again under pressure in early Asian trade as a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon came into effect and President Trump suggested talks with Iran may resume this weekend.
  
  At the time of writing, WTI was trading at $93.26, down 1.51%, while Brent had fallen 1.03% to $98.37. Both benchmarks remained significantly below the triple-digit levels they had spiked to at the start of the week after the last round of talks broke down.
  
  The ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, which came into effect at midnight local time, remains fragile, with the Lebanese Army accusing Israel of violating the agreement with "several Israeli attacks recorded, in addition to intermittent shelling". Another potential flashpoint in the ceasefire is Prime Minister Netanyahu's insistence that Israeli troops will remain in southern Lebanon during the truce, with Hezbollah saying it will reject any arrangement that would grant Israel operational latitude inside Lebanese territory.
  
  The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire may be the first step in another round of talks between the U.S. and Iran, with President Trump saying that Iran had agreed they would not acquire a nuclear weapon, and would give up the "nuclear dust". While Iranian officials have not responded to those claims, Iran’s Permanent Representative to the UN, Ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani, said they remain "cautiously optimistic" about negotiations.
  
  Meanwhile, the U.S. continues to threaten renewed combat operations if negotiations fail, and has now expanded the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz to include all Iranian and sanctioned vessels regardless of location.
  
  Ahead of potential talks, U.S. oil industry leaders have warned Trump against allowing Iran to impose tolls on vessels transiting the Strait as part of any future agreement. Daniel Yergin, vice-chair of S&P Global, emphasized that such a development wouldn't only be massively dangerous in itself, but it would also risk "upending the principle of freedom of the seas."
  
  While Trump had initially floated the idea that the U.S. could participate in tolling arrangements alongside Iran, the White House has since reiterated that the Strait of Hormuz is international water and must remain open.
  
  For oil markets, the primary issue at the moment is avoiding critical shortages, and even a peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran is no guarantee of that. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-04-17
  IEA Chief Says Oil, Gas Recovery Could Take Two Years After War Damage
  It could take up to two years to restore a meaningful share of oil and gas production lost in the Iran war, according to International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol. That timeline matters because markets are still treating the disruption as temporary.... Read more It could take up to two years to restore a meaningful share of oil and gas production lost in the Iran war, according to International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol.
  
  That timeline matters because markets are still treating the disruption as temporary. It isn’t.
  
  Oil fields, refineries, and pipelines have sustained damage across the Persian Gulf. The Strait of Hormuz has also been largely shut, cutting off a key export route for crude and fuels. Together, those disruptions have removed hundreds of millions of barrels from the market.
  
  In an interview with Bloomberg’s Wall Street Week, Birol pushed back on the idea that supply would return quickly once shipping resumes. Reopening the Strait does not bring production back to pre-war levels, according to Birol. Facilities would need to be repaired and output would need to be restarted.
  
  Both take time.
  
  This follows earlier estimates from the IEA that the war has already knocked out as much as 13 million barrels per day of oil production. Total export losses, including refined products, have been even higher. More than 80 oil and gas facilities across the region have been damaged.
  
  Natural gas could take even longer to recover. Some LNG terminals may need more than two years to return to normal operations after sustaining damage.
  
  The impact is already showing up in the physical market. Spot crude prices for immediate delivery have surged, with some barrels trading near $150. Refiners in Europe and Asia are competing for limited supply and, in some cases, cutting runs as shortages begin to take hold.
  
  Demand is starting to adjust. Birol pointed to early signs of demand destruction, including fuel rationing, reduced industrial activity, and rising inflation pressures in energy-importing economies.
  
  Those effects are expected to hit hardest in emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Africa, which rely heavily on imported energy.
  
  Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-04-17
  India’s Central Bank Tells Oil Refiners To Stop Buying Dollars On Spot Market
  India’s central bank has told state-run oil refiners to stop buying dollars in the spot market and instead use a government-backed credit line. That matters because oil is priced in dollars, and refiners are some of the biggest buyers of dollars in... Read more India’s central bank has told state-run oil refiners to stop buying dollars in the spot market and instead use a government-backed credit line.
  
  That matters because oil is priced in dollars, and refiners are some of the biggest buyers of dollars in the country. When they all go into the market at once to pay for crude, it puts direct pressure on the rupee. That pressure has been building for weeks.
  
  The Reserve Bank of India is now stepping in to manage the demand.
  
  State refiners, including Indian Oil Corporation, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation, and Bharat Petroleum Corporation, have been asked to draw dollars through a special credit facility routed via State Bank of India. Together, these companies account for about half of India’s 5.2 million barrels per day of refining capacity.
  
  Instead of going into the open market to buy dollars on the spot—meaning immediate purchase at current exchange rates—they can either access this credit line or buy dollars at a reference rate set by the central bank—potentially adding costs to India’s oil refiners.
  
  The goal is simple: reduce visible demand for dollars in the market.
  
  India’s currency has been under pressure. The rupee has fallen more than 3% this year and hit a record low past 95 per dollar in March, driven by higher oil prices and foreign capital outflows. Oil imports are a major factor. India imports the bulk of its crude, and every cargo requires dollar payments.
  
  By centralizing those flows through SBI and shifting demand off the spot market, the RBI is trying to smooth out volatility and limit sharp moves in the currency.
  
  The measures have been in place for about two weeks. Traders say activity from oil companies in the spot market has already slowed.
  
  The move follows additional direction from India’s government in February, which asked refiners to consider buying more crude oil cargoes from the US and Venezuela, steering clear of Russian crude.
  
  The central bank has also sold dollars from its reserves and tightened rules around certain currency trades. The rupee has since recovered about 2%, last trading near 93.20 per dollar.
  
  For now, the strategy is focused on managing dollar demand at the source: oil imports. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-04-17
  Hormuz Crisis Forces Rethink on Alternative Marine Fuels Investment
  The escalation of conflict across the Middle East and the disruption to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz have introduced a variable into the maritime energy transition that regulatory frameworks were never designed to handle: the possibility... Read more The escalation of conflict across the Middle East and the disruption to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz have introduced a variable into the maritime energy transition that regulatory frameworks were never designed to handle: the possibility that conventional marine fuel becomes unavailable because competing domestic priorities absorb the available supply. This changes the analytical framing for clean shipping in a big way.
  
  Until now, the investment case for alternative marine fuels has been driven by compliance – organized around the International Maritime Organization’s Net-Zero Framework, and the European Union’s FuelEU Maritime regulation and emissions trading system – with energy security treated as background context. The Hormuz crisis forces this to the front, opening an arguably more durable investment rationale for alternative fuels that does not depend on the survival of any regulatory regime.
  
  The near-term market impact has been sharp but uneven. Prices for Singapore very low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) and low-sulfur marine gas oil (LSMGO) surged in the days following the start of the crisis, driven by supply risk repricing rather than confirmed physical shortages. Rystad Energy’s forecast projects the spike to peak around April to May this year, with LSMGO reaching well above $1,200 per tonne before gradually declining. Normalization is not expected until the middle of next year. However, even without triggering a structural shift in fuel choice, the price dislocation has made a deeper concern more visible: the reliability of conventional bunker supply itself can no longer be assumed.
  
  The crisis also arrives at a moment of deepening regulatory uncertainty. The extraordinary Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) session, which is scheduled for October this year, faces growing opposition, with the US, some major oil producers and Japan all pushing to weaken or replace the NZF. The worst-case scenario for clean fuel investment is not the absence of regulation but ambiguous regulation: a framework adopted in sufficiently diluted form that it generates ongoing uncertainty without providing the carbon-cost clarity needed to drive capital allocation. This is the context in which energy security shifts from supplementary argument to structural substitute.
  
  The crisis reshapes the investment case selectively across individual fuel pathways. Biodiesel faces intensifying feedstock competition from sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) mandates. Compliance economics of bio-liquefied natural gas (bio-LNG) remain attractive for operators with surplus unit (SU) market access, but fleet applicability is narrow and delivery infrastructure immature. Biomethanol’s case is strengthening, anchored by China’s scale and strategic incentive, though supply constraints remain binding. E-methanol shares methanol’s engine compatibility advantages but sits at significantly higher production costs and, without regulatory support to bridge the gap, near-term scaling remains constrained despite the crisis compressing the cost differential at some ports. Ethanol is credible as an energy-security fuel on routes outside EU regulatory jurisdiction but still limited to a small segment of vessels. Ammonia remains structurally behind, requiring simultaneous policy pull and infrastructure investment that energy-security motivation alone cannot yet deliver.
  
  The historical record offers a useful corrective to near-term pessimism. Previous energy shocks have consistently produced lasting structural change rather than temporary price spikes. The Hormuz disruption is likely to follow the same pattern, with one important distinction: alternative fuel technology is already commercially available at meaningful scale. The crisis does not immediately solve infrastructure immaturity, but it creates the political mandate and investment capital to accelerate that build faster than the pre-crisis compliance pathway would have delivered.
  
  For shipowners, energy security can no longer be a background consideration. Voyage planning, bunkering choices and fuel-sourcing decisions now carry supply reliability risk alongside compliance cost risk. No single alternative fuel offers a universal solution, and the right pathway remains highly specific to vessel type, trade route and commercial structure. Those who move early to secure diversified and resilient fuel supply chains will be better positioned to absorb future shocks and to capture the commercial advantage that fuel flexibility increasingly represents.
  
  This article draws on insights from our latest Rystad Energy report, "Hormuz: Impact on clean shipping fuels". The full analysis is available to clients via the Client Portal. Source: Oilprice.com

Buy subscriptions via