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MABUX ARA LNG Bunker Index
Port LNG$/mton MGO LS$/mton Date
ARA
890.00
0.00
880.00
-10.00
Jun 23
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Port	LNG$/mton	MGO LS$/mton	Date
ARA	890.00	0.00	880.00	-10.00	Jun 23

MABUX Global Bunker Index

380HSFO$/mton		VLS FO$/mton		MGO LS$/mton		Date
581.03	-14.28	735.65	-16.41	1 090.15	-7.87	Jun 23

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MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI)

Correlation between market bunker prices (MBP) and MABUX Digital Bunker Price Benchmark (DBP)

All Indexes in $/mton	380HSFO			VLS FO			MGO LS			Date
All Indexes in $/mton	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	Date
Rotterdam	490	560	-70	590	615	-25	880	1 026	-146	Jun 23
Singapore	475	586	-111	710	692	+18	910	1 019	-109	Jun 23
Fujairah	585	527	+58	1 050	609	+441	1 390	1 082	+308	Jun 23
Houston	492	561	-69	605	645	-40	895	993	-98	Jun 23

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Latest News
- 2026-06-23
  Oil inches down as investors focus on Hormuz flows after peace talks
  Oil prices inched down on Tuesday, extending losses from the previous session, as investors looked for clearer signs of progress in restoring crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz following U.S.-Iran peace talks. Brent crude futures fell 20 cents,... Read more Oil prices inched down on Tuesday, extending losses from the previous session, as investors looked for clearer signs of progress in restoring crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz following U.S.-Iran peace talks.
  
  Brent crude futures fell 20 cents, or 0.3%, to $77.70 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate declined to $73.74 a barrel, down 12 cents, or 0.2%, as of 0323 GMT.
  
  Prices fell more than 3% on Monday after the United States granted Iran a 60-day sanctions waiver following initial peace talks, and as officials reported a lull in hostilities in Lebanon under the broader agreement.
  
  "The gradual increase in oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz continues to weigh on the market," said ING analysts in a note.
  
  Two crude tankers with just under 2 million barrels of oil sailed through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, ship-tracking data showed, in a sign that traffic was picking up following weaker flows on Sunday due to concerns over passage through the waterway.
  
  "Transits over recent days look to have risen sharply, (which) the market will treat as a proxy for both physical oil, perhaps paper oil, and diplomatic progress," said Sparta Commodities’ head of research Neil Crosby in a note. "It feels like we will be stuck in this bearish risk-off/optimistic mood until such time as something changes."
  
  The price declines come after a weekend that had appeared to put the week-old accord in jeopardy, including threats from U.S. President Donald Trump to restart the war if Iran disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz after Tehran declared the strategic waterway closed.
  
  "There remains a prevailing dose of market scepticism, rooted in deep-seated mistrust between Washington and Tehran, suggesting that any return to pre-war oil prices is likely to be delayed rather than immediate," said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.
  
  Separately, analysts in a Reuters poll expect U.S. crude inventories to have fallen last week, along with distillate and gasoline inventories. [EIA/S]
  
  On Monday, government data showed U.S. crude stocks in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to 331.2 million barrels last week, the lowest since June 1983, as supplies tightened in the wake of the U.S.-Iran conflict.
  
  Source: Reuters/Investing.com
- 2026-06-23
  The Oil Crisis Is Far From Over
  The outline of conditions and topics for a negotiated settlement of the U.S.-Iran conflict, called a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) and signed by both sides last week, in all probability won't prevent the approaching energy cliff. That cliff will be... Read more The outline of conditions and topics for a negotiated settlement of the U.S.-Iran conflict, called a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) and signed by both sides last week, in all probability won't prevent the approaching energy cliff. That cliff will be the result of fast-depleting commercial and strategic inventories of oil and oil products around the world that have acted as buffers in the wake of the suspension of almost all tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz during the conflict - tankers believed to carry about 20 percent of the world's daily needs of oil.
  
  As I explained in a previous piece, the world is fast approaching "tank bottoms," that is, the depletion of usable oil and oil products inventory. When that inventory effectively runs out, there will be a bidding war for oil and oil products to replace the millions of barrels per day that will still be needed but unavailable from inventories as the drama in the Persian Gulf continues.
  
  As of this writing, the Strait of Hormuz has been closed by Iran in response to continuing attacks by Israeli armed forces in Lebanon. The first provision of the MOU is that hostilities are to cease immediately everywhere, including Lebanon, as a precondition to further negotiations. Just as important as whether the Strait is open are what each side means by the word "open" and how shipping companies and the insurance firms that insure their tankers understand the risk of transiting the Strait.
  
  According to a frequent unofficial spokesman for the Iranian government, Seyed Marandi, who is a professor of English and Orientalism at the University of Tehran, the Strait will likely be managed in a way to carefully meter traffic at rates far below those seen before the beginning of the war, that is, assuming it does, in fact, reopen.
  
  Although insurance has been available for ships passing through the Strait at costs believed to be five times pre-war rates, the cost of hiring tankers for the journey appears to be skyrocketing, that is, when such tankers are even available. One of the biggest fears of shippers continues to be that they cannot be certain that ships entering the Persian Gulf will be allowed to come back out, as conditions appear to be changing from day to day. The many uncertainties are therefore likely to keep many shippers away, and uncertainty works in Iran's favor as Iran's newly minted Persian Gulf Strait Authority can claim the Strait is "open" while also saying it can't force shipping companies to come through.
  
  There is every reason for the Iranians to keep traffic to just the minimum required to claim that the Strait is open so as to allow negotiations to move forward while simultaneously continuing to deny the world economy adequate supplies of oil, liquefied natural gas, and other key products such as sulfur and fertilizer.
  
  As the energy cliff approaches, oil prices will likely regain and perhaps exceed their previous highs. As the resulting pain transmits through the world economy, including the United States, the Trump administration will be incentivized to come to a stabilizing agreement as quickly as possible. The United States can't do that without successful negotiations, and Iran has now made it clear that those negotiations may not move forward unless the United States lives up to the conditions set in the MOU. Even as the Iranian foreign minister traveled to meet American negotiators in Switzerland, Iran's Fars News Agency reported that the Iranian delegation will "demand the other side implement its commitments" agreed to in the MOU. Iran can and will open and close the Strait of Hormuz when it chooses in response to the fulfillment (or nonfulfillment) of those U.S. commitments. Control of the Strait of Hormuz has now become the central way in which the Iranians can enforce the provisions of the MOU.
  
  In addition, even if the current Strait closure is resolved quickly and negotiations proceed, the MOU calls for 60 days of negotiations. The Iranians can count, and they must have known when they signed the MOU that tank bottoms around the world would almost certainly arrive DURING the negotiations. That would lead to price spikes in oil that would weaken the position of the United States, forcing U.S. negotiators to give Iran more of what it wants in exchange for a quick resolution.
  
  It is not certain as of this writing that negotiations will actually proceed anytime soon, apart from the Iranians demanding that the preconditions set forth in the MOU be honored. That means the euphoria of last week upon the signing of the MOU will likely dissipate as the reality of continuing drawdowns of oil and oil product inventories comes to the fore.
  
  No doubt the Trump administration will once again try to jawbone the oil market downwards, and that may work for a short time as it has in the past. But eventually, no jawboning from the administration or from anyone else will be able to overcome the loss of inventories - unless those wanting lower oil prices have figured out how to repeal the laws of physics. If that happens, I promise complete coverage of the event as it will be the most important scientific marvel of the age. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-06-23
  State of Global Oil Inventories Ruins Iran Peace Optimism
  As oil benchmarks crash and Brent slips below $80 per barrel, a growing number of analysts are sounding an alarm: Hormuz may reopen, but oil production in the region would not rebound immediately—and the world’s oil inventories are depleting. Back... Read more As oil benchmarks crash and Brent slips below $80 per barrel, a growing number of analysts are sounding an alarm: Hormuz may reopen, but oil production in the region would not rebound immediately—and the world’s oil inventories are depleting.
  
  Back in May, Carlyle Group’s Jeff Currie warned that by July, parts of the world would face what he dubbed “minimum operational levels” of crude oil supply due to depletion resulting from storage withdrawals to avoid shortages amid the Hormuz crisis.
  
  Energy Aspects analysts also noted, at the start of June, that even if a peace deal is signed, it would take a while for tanker traffic to return to pre-war levels. In the meantime, the world was using oil from inventories. As reports about a deal between the United States and Iran multiplied in the past few days, so did warnings about not expecting an immediate return to normal in terms of oil production and exports from the Persian Gulf.
  
  “While the conflict may have come to an end and oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz may gradually return to normal, the damage already done cannot be reversed overnight,” Phillip Nova analyst Priyanka Sachdeva said earlier this week, as quoted by Bloomberg. “This includes not only any physical damage to oil infrastructure but also the economic strain endured by oil-importing economies that have faced elevated energy costs for months.”
  
  The publication collected the reactions of several analysts from the energy space, and none of them supported the assumption that once the deal between the U.S. and Iran is signed—which is far from a certainty—oil flows via the Hormuz would miraculously rebound. A Vortexa analyst made an important point about insurance, as well. “If the US-Iran deal is completed and insurance companies are willing to insure the vessels, ballast tanker transits would increase, followed by the restart of crude production and then the restart of refineries,” senior market analyst Xavier Tang said.
  Related: IEA Sees Massive Oil Surplus In 2027 As Middle East Supply Returns
  
  Meanwhile, oil industry executives have also stepped up warnings about the state of global oil inventories. “Over the next few weeks, we’re likely to see those pressures flow through more directly to physical prices, and there’s more upwards pressure that I would expect as we get into June and certainly into July,” Chevron’s chief executive Mike Wirth said in early June.
  
  “We’re approaching unheard of inventory levels,” Exxon senior VP Neil Chapman also warned on low inventory levels at the time. “I mean really, really low levels,” he said. “You can debate whether that’s going to hit, those really low levels, in two weeks or three weeks. Once you get to that point, then you’ll see price shoot up.”
  
  U.S. crude oil inventories have been on an extended decline, with the latest weekly report from the American Petroleum Institute showing the last nine weeks have seen the total reduced by 52 million barrels. Reserves at Cushing are also significantly down, to about 21 million barrels, according to a recent Wall Street Journal report that noted how “At roughly 20 million barrels, tank operators begin running into a variety of complications.”
  
  Such complications first surfaced about the strategic petroleum reserve system when the Biden administration released some 180 million barrels to rein in oil prices in 2022 after the West bombarded Russia with sanctions for its invasion of Ukraine. The complications arise from the need to keep a certain level of oil in the storage caverns so they can remain operational. The U.S. is not the only country that has been drawing on reserves to keep demand covered, which means demand to refill those reserves is looming over a market that has yet to return to normal operation and that still features rather healthy demand overall.
  
  Meanwhile, no one besides oil traders seems enthusiastic about the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Insurers, as noted by Vortexa’s analyst above, are taking a naturally cautious stance, waiting to see what happens on Friday and afterward before they return to business as usual. Shippers are not eager to get sailing, either. “We're not seeing any big shipowners changing their stance at this point. They're staying put for now,” the global head of shipping research at Oil Brokerage Ltd. told Bloomberg. “As of now, no one has a clear understanding of the terms and text of this agreement,” said Anoop Singh.
  
  It appears the oil market is once again in a dual reality. One side of that duality is the futures market, ruled by media reports that fuel optimism about the end of hostilities in the Persian Gulf and the normalization of energy trade, overlooking the numerous challenges on the way to that normalization. The other side is the physical market, which has seen actual oil prices soar much higher than the benchmarks on the futures market, and which has experienced significant inventory drawdowns that oil-importing nations would be eager to replenish at first opportunity—just in case. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-06-23
  MABUX: Bunker Market to enter downward correction on June 23 following U.S.–Iran ceasefire agreement.
  The MABUX World Bunker Index — a composite benchmark reflecting daily prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO, and MGO — recorded a moderate upward movement on Jun. 22. 380 HSFO: USD/MT: 595.31(+4.13) VLSFO: USD/MT 752.06 (+4.51) MGO: USD/MT 1 098.02 (+0.58) The... Read more The MABUX World Bunker Index — a composite benchmark reflecting daily prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO, and MGO — recorded a moderate upward movement on Jun. 22.
  
  380 HSFO: USD/MT: 595.31(+4.13)
  VLSFO: USD/MT 752.06 (+4.51)
  MGO: USD/MT 1 098.02 (+0.58)
  
  The announcement of a ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran has significantly eased geopolitical risk premiums in the global oil market, prompting a reversal in bunker fuel price sentiment. As concerns over potential disruptions to crude oil supplies and maritime traffic in the Middle East subside, the global bunker market is expected to resume its downward trajectory.
  
  Based on current market fundamentals and the anticipated decline in oil benchmarks, MABUX expects bunker prices to enter a corrective phase on June 23, with the following potential ranges: 38 HSFO: minus 5-15 USD/MT, VLSFO: minus 5–15 USD/MT, MGO LS: minus 10–20 USD/MT.
  Source: MABUX
- 2026-06-23
  When Will Gasoline Prices Return to Pre-War Levels?
  Gasoline prices have started to fall, and that is welcome news for drivers. After months of pain at the pump following the war with Iran and the disruption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, even modest relief is noticeable. But falling from... Read more Gasoline prices have started to fall, and that is welcome news for drivers. After months of pain at the pump following the war with Iran and the disruption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, even modest relief is noticeable.
  
  But falling from crisis levels is not the same thing as returning to normal.
  
  That distinction may define the next several months in the oil market. The developing U.S.-Iran agreement has given traders a reason to mark down crude prices. Markets are forward-looking, and they have quickly priced in a scenario in which the Strait of Hormuz reopens, Gulf exports resume, and the energy shock that pushed gasoline prices sharply higher begins to fade.
  
  That may ultimately prove correct. But the physical oil market does not move as quickly as futures prices. Tanker routes, insurance markets, shipping backlogs, refinery crude slates, and depleted inventories all take time to normalize. Even if the diplomatic framework holds, the path back to pre-war gasoline prices is likely to be slower and more uneven than the recent drop in crude prices might suggest.
  
  Prices Are Falling, But From Very High Levels
  
  The national average gasoline price had climbed from under $3 a gallon before the conflict to more than $4 during the spring. Over the past three months, gasoline prices were more than $1 a gallon above pre-war levels, with consumers facing the combined effect of higher crude oil prices, refinery disruptions, and seasonal fuel demand.
  
  That is why recent declines can be both real and incomplete. A drop from $4.50 to $4.05 is meaningful. It helps household budgets and eases some inflation pressure. But it still leaves gasoline far above where it was before the conflict began.
  
  This is where the public conversation can become misleading. If prices fall for several weeks, some will argue that the oil shock is over. But the relevant question is not whether gasoline prices can come down from their highs. They already have. The better question is whether they can quickly return to pre-war levels.
  
  That is a very different question.
  
  Futures Markets Move Faster Than Tankers
  
  Oil prices react immediately to headlines. A reported ceasefire, a diplomatic framework, or a sign that the Strait of Hormuz may reopen can move crude futures within minutes. That is exactly what happened as traders began to discount a lower geopolitical risk premium.
  
  But moving physical barrels is different.
  
  The Strait of Hormuz is the most important energy chokepoint in the world, and months of disruption cannot be unwound with a press release. Ships that were delayed have to be rescheduled. Insurers have to reassess war-risk premiums. Crews and cargo owners need confidence that passage is secure. Ports must deal with congestion. Refiners that changed crude sourcing patterns may not immediately switch back.
  
  That is all important because gasoline prices are tied not only to the price of crude oil, but to the availability of the right crude in the right place at the right time. If refiners are still competing for prompt cargoes, or if logistical constraints keep barrels from flowing smoothly, gasoline prices can remain elevated even as futures markets anticipate relief.
  
  Low Inventories Create A Bullish Backdrop
  
  The bigger issue is inventories. During a major supply disruption, the world does not simply consume less oil and wait patiently for the crisis to end. It draws down inventories. Commercial stocks fall. Strategic reserves may be tapped. Refiners and importers use whatever supply they can secure.
  
  For example, the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which was already drawn down significantly in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has now been further drawn down to its lowest level since 1983.
  
  When the crisis eases, those barrels have to be replaced.
  
  That creates what could be called an inventory trap. Reopening Hormuz is bearish for oil prices because it allows more supply to move. But the need to refill depleted inventories is bullish because it creates additional demand for barrels just as the market is trying to normalize.
  
  In other words, the end of the disruption does not necessarily create an immediate glut. It may instead trigger a period of aggressive restocking.
  
  This is especially important for countries that rely heavily on imports from the Persian Gulf. Many will want to rebuild strategic and commercial inventories before the next geopolitical flare-up. Companies may do the same. If buyers conclude that inventories are too low for comfort, they may bid for barrels even as traders are assuming the crisis premium should disappear.
  
  That restocking demand can put a floor under oil prices.
  
  Gasoline Does Not Track Crude One-For-One
  
  Another reason gasoline may not quickly return to pre-war levels is that crude oil is only one component of the pump price. It is the biggest component, but not the only one.
  
  Refining margins, distribution costs, taxes, seasonal fuel specifications, regional supply constraints, and local inventories are all factors. Gasoline prices often rise quickly when crude spikes, but the decline can be slower when crude falls, particularly when refiners are still dealing with tight supply or strong demand.
  
  This is also the time of year when gasoline demand tends to be seasonally strong. The summer driving season adds pressure just as the market is trying to recover from a major geopolitical disruption. Even if crude continues to ease, gasoline inventories and refinery utilization will help determine how much relief drivers actually see.
  
  That is why a lower Brent crude price does not automatically mean a quick return to $3 gasoline.
  
  The Market May Be Pricing In A Best-Case Scenario
  
  None of this means gasoline prices cannot keep falling. They can. If the Iran agreement holds, if Hormuz traffic normalizes faster than expected, if inventories rebuild smoothly, and if crude prices continue to decline, drivers should see further relief.
  
  But that is a favorable scenario with many moving parts.
  
  The risk is that markets have already priced in much of the good news. They are assuming that the diplomatic breakthrough translates quickly into normal shipping flows, lower crude prices, lower inflation pressure, and a calmer economic backdrop. That may be too much to assume before the details of the agreement are known and before tanker traffic has returned to normal levels.
  
  There are several ways this could disappoint. The agreement could be delayed. Implementation could be uneven. Shipping insurance could remain expensive. Regional security concerns could persist. Countries could compete aggressively to refill depleted stocks. Any of those factors could slow the decline in oil and gasoline prices.
  
  That does not mean another price spike is inevitable. It simply means the market may have moved from fear to relief faster than the physical system can justify.
  
  The Big Picture
  
  The developing Iran agreement is good news if it reduces the risk of a wider war and allows the Strait of Hormuz to reopen. It should help bring oil prices down from the extreme levels reached during the conflict. Consumers should welcome that.
  
  But the oil market is not a light switch. Reopening a chokepoint does not instantly refill inventories. It does not immediately clear the tanker backlogs. It does not erase insurance risk. It does not automatically bring gasoline prices back to where they were before the first missiles flew.
  
  The most likely outcome is not that gasoline prices stay at crisis levels forever. It is that the road back to pre-war prices is far slower than many consumers expect.
  
  Gas prices are falling. That part is real. But the bullish backdrop from low inventories, restocking demand, and lingering logistical risk has not disappeared. Until those issues are resolved, the market may struggle to deliver the kind of quick, complete relief that drivers are hoping for. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-06-23
  Greek Energy Pulls In $26B As Europe Scrambles To Replace Russian Gas
  Billions of dollars in investments are flowing into Greece’s energy sector as the country tries to establish itself as a vital energy transit hub for Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe as the European Union prepares to completely phase out Russian... Read more Billions of dollars in investments are flowing into Greece’s energy sector as the country tries to establish itself as a vital energy transit hub for Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe as the European Union prepares to completely phase out Russian gas imports by 2027.
  
  According to To Vima Finance, over €23 billion (~$26.3B) from major international investment funds and high-profile global entities including BlackRock, Capital, Covalis, QIA and K Group has poured into Greece's energy sector over the past one month alone as they look to secure positions in the country’s buzzing energy sector.
  
  Last month, Public Power Corporation (PPC), Greece’s main power utility, officially finalized a landmark share capital increase, securing a total of €4.25 billion through new shares, alongside €250 million from a secondary treasury placement for a combined €4.5 billion. Bids from global institutional investors ultimately exceeded €18 billion, marking the largest order book ever recorded on the Athens Stock Exchange.
  
  The Greek state contributed €1.3 billion to maintain its 33.4% blocking stake, while CVC Capital Partners (via Aeolus Holdings) invested €1.2 billion. Major international funds including BlackRock, Vanguard, Norges Bank and the Qatar Investment Authority (QIA) also participated.
  
  The capital raise will fuel PPC's €24 billion investment plan through 2030, transitioning the company into a clean energy and technology conglomerate with regional expansion across Southeastern Europe and significant investments in data centers and distribution networks.
  
  Recently, Greek grid operator IPTO (ADMIE) successfully concluded a €1 billion share capital issue, with the 14x oversubscription showcasing massive global demand. The Greek government contributed €510 million (partially funded by the Recovery and Resilience Facility) to maintain its 51% stake; State Grid of China: Invested €240 million to maintain its 24% ownership while the public tranche raised €250 million, yielding €3.5 billion in total bids.
  
  Meanwhile, Greece’s Motor Oil’s (Hellas) €400 million, 3.75% senior unsecured bond issue was a massive success, drawing over €1.4 billion in bids from international investors. Headquartered in Maroussi, Greece, Motor Oil is a leading Greek petroleum refining and energy company. It operates the largest privately-held industrial complex in the country and is a key market player across Southern Europe and the broader Mediterranean region. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-06-23
  Saudis Turn to Russian Fuel Oil as Iran War Saps Fossil Power Supplies
  Saudi Arabia continues to snap up high volumes of Russia’s fuel oil as the Hormuz crisis has forced shut oil and gas wells and reduced domestic supply for power generation amid rising temperatures. Russia’s vessel shipments of fuel oil and vacuum gasoil... Read more Saudi Arabia continues to snap up high volumes of Russia’s fuel oil as the Hormuz crisis has forced shut oil and gas wells and reduced domestic supply for power generation amid rising temperatures.
  
  Russia’s vessel shipments of fuel oil and vacuum gasoil (VGO) slumped in May by some 6% from April, due to the continued Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, Reuters reported on Monday, quoting shipment data on LSEG and traders.
  
  Despite the overall decline in Russian fuel oil exports, to about 3.2 million metric tons last month, Saudi Arabia remained the single biggest buyer, accounting for more than a third of all Russian fuel oil shipments.
  
  These stood at 1.23 million tons in May, down by 17% compared to April, but at still relatively high levels compared to before the war.
  
  Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest crude oil exporter, became the leading buyer of Russian’s fuel oil two years ago, after the EU full embargo on Russian oil products came into effect in 2023.
  
  Since then, Saudi Arabia has consistently bought high levels of fuel oil from Russia.
  
  But the Saudi imports took off in March 2026, rising by 18% from February, after the Iran war and the Hormuz crisis forced massive shut-ins of oil and gas production in Saudi Arabia and all other producers in the Middle East. The Saudis, which use a lot of direct crude burn for power generation, turned to Russian fuel oil, which was de-sanctioned by the U.S. as the conflict raged.
  
  By importing fuel oil from Russia, Saudi Arabia left more of its crude available for exports, via the Yanbu port on the Red Sea that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz.
  
  Within weeks of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia had managed to hike its East-West pipeline flows from about 2 million barrels per day (bpd) to 7 million bpd, to keep its exports via the Red Sea, despite the closed Strait of Hormuz. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-06-23
  U.S. Airlines Set To Pocket $40 Billion As Jet Fuel Prices Crash
  U.S. airlines stand to save billions in dollars on jet fuel costs after the US-Iran peace deal sent oil prices sharply lower. Brent crude was trading at $79.22 per barrel at 6.05 am ET on Monday, nearly $20/bbl lower after Washington and Tehran agreed... Read more U.S. airlines stand to save billions in dollars on jet fuel costs after the US-Iran peace deal sent oil prices sharply lower. Brent crude was trading at $79.22 per barrel at 6.05 am ET on Monday, nearly $20/bbl lower after Washington and Tehran agreed to a ceasefire and committed to 60 days of negotiations, while jet fuel spot prices fell to $2.85 a gallon, down sharply from $4.88.
  
  The dip in fuel costs could slash the U.S. airline industry’s annual fuel bill by more than $40 billion, easing the pressure on carriers who were facing margin pressures and a painful earnings squeeze.
  
  The International Air Transport Association (IATA) previously warned that exploding fuel costs would halve global airline net profits in 2026 to $23 billion.
  
  However, unlike previous oil price downcycles, airlines are unlikely to pass on these cost savings to passengers in the form of lower air fares.
  
  According to Raymond James, average domestic airfares booked one week prior to travel were up 9% week-over-week and 34.1% from a year earlier as of June 8. In previous fuel cycles, dropping oil prices usually triggered capacity expansion that pushed fares lower; however, the current market is operating under different dynamics. First off, jet fuel prices rose three times faster than ticket prices between January and May, slapping carriers with $100 billion in extra fuel costs after oil prices spiked amid the Iran war. This implies that airlines are likely to use this windfall to stabilize their balance sheets.
  
  Second, tight airport capacity, aircraft delivery delays and weaker low-cost carriers are likely to limit a broader domestic fare war.
  
  Global aircraft backlogs are currently at record highs, with deliveries lagging roughly 30% behind peak levels. Domestic airline capacity in the United States has largely stagnated, with current projections that airline seats will grow just 0.4%Y/Y in the third quarter, down from expectations of 4.6% growth before the war. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-06-23
  Chinese Grid Operators Resist Plans to Boost Renewables to Power AI
  Grid operators are concerned that the Chinese drive to hike the share of renewable electricity powering AI would raise the risks for power firms as peak demand at data centers is difficult to forecast. Industry analysts and officials have told Reuters... Read more Grid operators are concerned that the Chinese drive to hike the share of renewable electricity powering AI would raise the risks for power firms as peak demand at data centers is difficult to forecast.
  
  Industry analysts and officials have told Reuters that the Chinese strategic priority of having renewables power the majority of electricity demand at data centers by 2030 may not be feasible.
  
  “From what we understand, they (data centers) cannot really adjust power consumption load much,” Reuters quoted Pei Shanpeng, a director of Chinese power firm State Power Investment Corporation, as telling attendees at a recent industry conference in Beijing.
  
  “GPUs are very expensive, so once they are purchased, operators want to use them as quickly and as intensively as possible,” the official added.
  
  China plans to use massively its renewable energy boom to power the data centers.
  
  The country has just launched the world’s first offshore wind-powered underwater data center, using seawater cooling and renewable electricity to reduce energy, water, and land requirements. The 24 MW-capacity Shanghai Lingang undersea data center demonstration was developed by HiCloud Technology and the state-owned China Communications Construction.
  
  A report from last year by the International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that the data center electricity supply in China was dominated by coal with a near 70% share as of 2025, followed by renewables with nearly 20%, nuclear close to 10%, and natural gas accounting for the remainder.
  
  Solar PV and wind would add nearly 90 TWh of additional electricity for data centers by 2030, “supported by an increase in the share of renewables in the grid electricity mix, provincial co-location mandates and policies to prioritise the construction of data centres in renewables-rich western China,” the IEA said.
  
  However, analysts and industry officials say the data center sector isn’t a good fit for renewable energy because of the lack of visibility about peak demand from these power-sucking centers. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-06-23
  China Builds New LNG Hub as Russian Imports Surge
  China is preparing a second terminal to receive sanctioned Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG), as the country’s gas imports surge. According to an exclusive report by Reuters, the newly built Longkou LNG terminal in eastern China's Shandong province... Read more China is preparing a second terminal to receive sanctioned Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG), as the country’s gas imports surge. According to an exclusive report by Reuters, the newly built Longkou LNG terminal in eastern China's Shandong province is being lined up to receive LNG from Russia’s $21-billion Arctic LNG 2 project.
  
  Operated by the state-owned pipeline monopoly PipeChina, the Longkou terminal has completed its mechanical building phase and is expected to be fully operational before October 2026, just in time to meet peak winter heating demands.
  
  The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and damage to Qatar's Ras Laffan complex have severely impacted Middle Eastern LNG flows. To avoid shortages and prepare for summer demand, both state-owned and private Chinese entities have aggressively increased spot market purchases, with the country’s LNG imports jumping to 178,000 tons per day, the highest since February.
  
  China's primary hub for sanctioned Russian gas, the Beihai LNG terminal in southern China, needs additional support to absorb the rising volume of blacklisted cargoes. Longkou is closer to the Koryak floating storage unit in Russia's Far East, making it a strategic hub for storing and reloading cargoes from Arctic LNG 2.
  
  Russian exporter Novatek has drastically cut its cargo prices by 30% to 40% to attract more Chinese buyers, according to Reuters.
  
  Additionally, the Dalian terminal in the coastal province of Liaoning is connected to existing pipeline networks extending from Russia.
  
  China is the only remaining buyer of sanctioned LNG cargoes from Russia’s embattled Arctic LNG 2 project. Since the first delivery in August 2025, China has bought more than 40 cargoes (roughly 2.6 million tons of LNG) from Arctic 2.
  
  China quarantined the Beihai terminal before deliveries started, cutting off long-term Australian LNG imports to the facility in an effort to protect the rest of its gas infrastructure from potential U.S. secondary sanctions. Source: Oilprice.com

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