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MABUX ARA LNG Bunker Index
Port LNG$/mton MGO LS$/mton Date
ARA
1 289.00
0.00
1 265.00
-15.00
Aug 25
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Port	LNG$/mton	MGO LS$/mton	Date
ARA	1 289.00	0.00	1 265.00	-15.00	Aug 25

MABUX Global Bunker Index

380HSFO$/mton		VLS FO$/mton		MGO LS$/mton		Date
629.17	-3.90	780.20	-5.10	1 359.80	-10.41	Aug 25

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MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI)

Correlation between market bunker prices (MBP) and MABUX Digital Bunker Price Benchmark (DBP)

All Indexes in $/mton	380HSFO			VLS FO			MGO LS			Date
All Indexes in $/mton	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	Date
Rotterdam	555	646	-91	673	726	-53	1 265	1 407	-142	Aug 25
Singapore	665	672	-7	820	824	-4	1 220	1 400	-180	Aug 25
Fujairah	645	622	+23	805	764	+41	1 401	1 463	-62	Aug 25
Houston	484	631	-147	705	735	-30	1 257	1 354	-97	Aug 25

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Latest News
- 2026-08-26
  US oil prices extend losses on hopes of Iran-Oman talks on Strait of Hormuz
  U.S. oil prices fell in early trade on Wednesday, extending the previous session’s losses, on hopes the Strait of Hormuz could reopen after Iran said it had resumed talks with neighbour Oman on managing the strategic waterway. U.S. West Texas Intermediate... Read more U.S. oil prices fell in early trade on Wednesday, extending the previous session’s losses, on hopes the Strait of Hormuz could reopen after Iran said it had resumed talks with neighbour Oman on managing the strategic waterway.
  
  U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell $1.37, or 1.7%, to $80.99 as of 2240 GMT. The contract lost 3.1% on Tuesday, settling at its lowest since August 13.
  
  Iran said it had restarted talks with Oman to manage the Strait as it faces heightened economic pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump.
  
  Iran and Oman have been in on-and-off talks for weeks about controlling traffic through the waterway, which handled one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments before the war began in February.
  
  In an effort to hobble Iran’s economy, the U.S. on Monday unveiled an expansion of sanctions to cut off Iran’s economic lifeline, threatening to punish countries that continue to do business with Iran, but said it would not impose penalties immediately.
  Source: Reuters/Investing.com
- 2026-08-26
  Six months into Iran war, almost half of global oil flows from war zones
  Almost half the world’s oil comes from countries affected by conflict in 2026, Reuters calculations show, underscoring that current disruptions have eclipsed previous energy crises. Six months ago, U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran triggered what has... Read more Almost half the world’s oil comes from countries affected by conflict in 2026, Reuters calculations show, underscoring that current disruptions have eclipsed previous energy crises.
  
  Six months ago, U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran triggered what has become the largest oil supply crisis on record, with no clear end in sight.
  
  At the same time, the Russia-Ukraine war has forced production and refining cuts, including in nearby Kazakhstan this year.
  
  Ongoing conflict in Libya and U.S. restrictions on Venezuelan oil exports at the start of the year have added further strain.
  
  Together, countries affected by those conflicts produced about 45 million barrels per day of oil based on 2025 output, accounting for more than 43% of global supply, according to Reuters calculations using International Energy Agency data.
  
  The disruptions have increased the world’s reliance on U.S. oil supplies, though that too has occasionally been disrupted by severe weather.
  
  Not all of this year’s supply disruptions happened at the same time.
  
  With Saudi Arabia re-routing oil to the Red Sea and Gulf exporters sneaking oil secretly out of the Strait of Hormuz, the current Gulf oil disruption stands at around 5 million to 7 million bpd, according to analysts’ estimates.
  
  But risks to total flows remain high, as attacks in the Red Sea and near Egypt’s Suez Canal in July demonstrated.
  
  The conflicts in the Gulf and Ukraine have also cut global refining capacity by about a tenth.
  
  Ukraine has targeted much of Russia’s refining network, striking plants as far away as Omsk, about 2,700 km (1,680 miles) from Ukrainian-held territory.
  
  Russia is grappling with fuel shortages and has banned gasoline and diesel exports, tightening global fuel markets.
  
  Higher fuel prices have become a key driver of inflation, contributing to higher borrowing costs and helping to push U.S. debt to a record $40 trillion.
  
  U.S. diesel prices have climbed to record levels despite refiners running at peak capacity.
  
  The IEA has released record volumes from emergency stockpiles to help cushion the supply shock. Those releases are now largely complete, even as global inventories continue to decline. Source: Reuters/Investing.com
- 2026-08-26
  MABUX: Downward trend to prevail in the global bunker market on Aug. 26 as traders largely shrugged off the latest U.S. sanction
  The MABUX World Bunker Index — a composite benchmark reflecting daily prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO, and MGO – extended its downward trend on Aug. 25 for the second consecutive session: 380 HSFO: USD/MT: 629.17 (-3.90) VLSFO: USD/MT: 780.20 (-5.10) MGO:... Read more The MABUX World Bunker Index — a composite benchmark reflecting daily prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO, and MGO – extended its downward trend on Aug. 25 for the second consecutive session:
  
  380 HSFO: USD/MT: 629.17 (-3.90)
  VLSFO: USD/MT: 780.20 (-5.10)
  MGO: USD/MT: 1 359.80 (-10.41)
  
  As of Aug. 25, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI), which measures the spread between Market Bunker Prices (MBP) and the MABUX Digital Bunker Benchmark (DBP), indicated the following dynamics across the four major global bunkering hubs—Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston:
  
  • HSFO segment: Fujairah remained the only overcharged port, with its premium widening by $5. The other three ports were undercharged. MDI discounts widened by $1 in Rotterdam but narrowed by $12 in Singapore and $8 in Houston. Houston's underpricing continued to exceed the $100 mark, while Singapore moved closer to full correlation between MBP and DBP.
  
  • VLSFO segment: Fujairah was the only overcharged port in this bunker segment, with its premium increasing by $13. Rotterdam, Singapore and Houston were undercharged, with MDI discounts narrowing by $18, $8 and $21, respectively. Singapore’s MDI moved closer to the 100-percent correlation between MBP and DBP.
  
  • MGO LS segment: All four ports remained undercharged. MDI discounts declined by $42 in Rotterdam, $39 in Singapore, $22 in Fujairah and $42 in Houston. Houston’s underpricing fell below the $100 mark, while Rotterdam and Singapore remained above this threshold.
  
  MABUX expects a downward movement to prevail in the global bunker market on Aug. 26, as traders largely shrugged off the latest U.S. sanctions campaign: 380 HSFO: minus 5-12 USD/MT, VLSFO: minus 5-15 USD/MT, MGO LS: minus 3–10 USD/MT.
  
  Source: MABUX
- 2026-08-26
  Can Trump Isolate Iran Without Triggering a Clash With China?
  US sanctions experts say the Trump administration's new campaign to economically isolate Iran could be an effective escalation -- but only if Washington backs its threats with action. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent unveiled what he called “Operation... Read more US sanctions experts say the Trump administration's new campaign to economically isolate Iran could be an effective escalation -- but only if Washington backs its threats with action.
  
  US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent unveiled what he called “Operation Economic Outcast” on August 24, describing it as an unprecedented effort to force Iran's trading partners to choose between maintaining commercial ties with Tehran and access to the US financial system.
  
  Yet Bessent announced few immediate measures, leaving the central question unresolved: whether Washington is prepared to move beyond Iranian entities and smaller intermediaries and directly target the Chinese financial institutions and oil buyers central to Iran's revenue.
  
  The risk might be provoking a response from Beijing, potentially reigniting a trade war ahead of Xi Jinping's planned visit to Washington on September 24.
  
  For former US Treasury official Michael Parker, who previously served as an investigator and section chief at the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), Bessent's remarks appeared designed as much to warn and pressure foreign governments as to announce immediate sanctions.
  
  “Secretary Bessent’s comments appeared to be a public warning to buttress the US’s behind-the-scenes diplomacy,” Parker told RFE/RL. “He appeared to be giving major actors -- whether in China or elsewhere -- a chance to both change behavior and save face before taking broader actions.”
  
  “Whether or not this is a gamechanger will depend on how far and to what systemic level the US and its allies implement more far-reaching actions, particularly against Tier I (largest) banks,” he said.
  
  That possibility is central to the campaign's credibility.
  
  The US has extensive experience imposing sanctions on Iran, while Tehran has spent years adapting through front companies, intermediaries, shadow shipping, and financial channels outside Washington's direct reach.
  
  The administration's claim that it has now mapped “every node, every network, every facilitator” used by Iran to move oil and evade sanctions suggested a plan to close many of those remaining channels.
  
  But sanctions experts say one gap will be particularly difficult to close: China.
  
  The Test Of China
  
  Bessent said the Treasury Department had identified entities that continue to deal with Iran and that violators would be given deadlines to sever those relationships or face US sanctions. The length of the wind-down periods, he said, would depend on individual circumstances.
  
  “No one is above the reach of US sanctions,” Bessent said when asked about China, which has been the dominant buyer of Iranian oil. “If they facilitate transactions and are part of the ecosystem that turns Iranian oil into money, into repression, they will be targeted.”
  
  He added: “Any entity that facilitates money laundering on behalf of Iran will be removed from the US dollar system. The clock just started ticking.”
  
  That raises the most consequential question facing the campaign: What happens if Washington actually sanctions a major Chinese financial institution?
  
  Max Meizlish, a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) and a former OFAC official, noted that the Treasury sent warning letters in April to banks in China, Hong Kong, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates about possible secondary sanctions if they continued supporting Iranian sanctions evasion.
  
  "It’s impossible to stop the flow of funds to Iran if the US doesn’t combat China,” Meizlish said.
  
  Meizlish pointed specifically to China's Bank of Kunlun, which Washington cut off from access to the US dollar in 2012.
  
  “China’s Bank of Kunlun should be at the top of the list for sanctions,” Meizlish said. He described the earlier US action against the bank as “largely symbolic” and said a new designation could increase pressure on its parent, China National Petroleum Corporation, to sever ties.
  
  China's embassy in Washington said sanctions and pressure would not resolve the Iran issue and called instead for political and diplomatic efforts.
  
  “Regarding the Iran issue, sanctions and pressure do not help resolve the problem,” the embassy said. “China calls on the relevant parties to take responsible actions and resolve the issue through political and diplomatic means.”
  
  Bessent said US President Donald Trump was making calls to world leaders with specific requests that they end interactions with the Iranian government. He did not say whether Trump would speak directly with President Xi on this.
  
  Jim Mullinax, a veteran State Department economic officer who retired earlier this year after previously leading the department's Office of Sanctions Policy and Implementation, said the consequences of targeting Chinese banks would depend largely on which institutions were involved.
  
  “The big 4 don’t handle Iranian transactions, from what I understand,” Mullinax told RFE/RL. “China tends to set up specific institutions to deal with Iran, DPRK, etc.”
  
  That could give Washington room to target banks involved in Iranian transactions without necessarily disrupting the wider global financial system.
  
  “China's reaction likely will depend on the size of the bank. But expect retaliation...If China doesn’t play ball, then others won’t either and it’s hard to see how this doesn’t escalate,” Mullinax said.
  
  That could turn Iran sanctions into a broader US-China confrontation over the reach of American financial power.
  
  A Warning For Sanctions Evaders
  
  Bessent said countries and entities would receive deadlines to end their dealings with Iran, with the timing determined according to individual circumstances.
  
  Mullinax, who spent years dealing with sanctions policy and international diplomacy, defended the logic of a warning period.
  
  “If the goal is to disrupt Iran’s ability to move money, then closing off the channel is more important than freezing any specific amount,” Mullinax said.
  
  “As a former diplomat, I like the idea of a diplomatic campaign -- you’d rather have countries take actions rather than sanction their institutions,” he said.
  
  But Meizlish suggested that Bessent's warnings may nevertheless serve another purpose: preparing financial markets for potentially disruptive action.
  
  Global trade has already been roiled by massive disruptions to flows of oil, liquified natural gas, and other vital commodities through the Strait of Hormuz.
  
  A spike in bond yields has further spooked global markets.
  
  “The warning from Bessent could serve to get the market acclimated to what would otherwise be a shock,” Meizlish said.
  
  What Would Success Actually Look Like?
  
  The administration has offered a maximalist objective: complete economic isolation. The experts interviewed by RFE/RL point to a more complicated measure of success.
  
  For Mullinax, the administration appears to view sanctions as leverage intended ultimately to produce a political result.
  
  “My take is that the Administration sees success as Iran coming back to the negotiating table ready to do a deal to re-open the Strait of Hormuz and stop terror finance/nuke development and attacks on the region,” he said.
  
  Yet sanctions can also produce unintended consequences, particularly if pressure on Iran begins to spill into global energy markets or makes it more difficult for ordinary Iranians to obtain essential goods.
  
  “We already have a global economic problem and I’m sure a humanitarian problem is on the horizon,” Mullinax said.
  
  He noted that international conventions provide for transactions involving humanitarian goods such as food and medicine, although he questioned whether the Trump administration would maintain those protections in the same way.
  
  The deeper question is whether economic pressure can produce political concessions from a government that has already demonstrated an ability to survive under severe sanctions.
  
  “How much will it weaken the regime?” Mullinax asked. “I’d have thought they are weak already, but that doesn’t seem to be affecting their ability to cause pain to the US and the global economy.”
  
  That is the fundamental uncertainty surrounding Operation Economic Outcast. If Iran continues to find buyers, banks, and countries willing to help it evade restrictions, “zero leakage” may remain an aspiration rather than an achievable policy outcome.
  
  And if the US decides that achieving zero leakage requires confronting major Chinese financial institutions, the Iran sanctions campaign could rapidly become something much larger: a test of how far Washington can extend its economic power against one of its principal geopolitical rivals without turning sanctions enforcement into a broader economic confrontation. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-08-26
  Oil Prices Fall as Iran Negotiation Hopes Return
  U.S. sanctions pressure on Iran intensifies, but Pakistani mediation hopes push Brent back to $89. US Blockade Leaves Iran’s Oil Trade on Borrowed Time - The announcement of the Trump administration’s ‘Economic D-Day’ sanctions on Iran coincides... Read more U.S. sanctions pressure on Iran intensifies, but Pakistani mediation hopes push Brent back to $89.
  
  US Blockade Leaves Iran’s Oil Trade on Borrowed Time
  
  - The announcement of the Trump administration’s ‘Economic D-Day’ sanctions on Iran coincides with an overall slump in Tehran’s crude exports, choked off by the US Navy’s maritime blockade in the Gulf of Oman.
  
  - Iran’s August crude exports have so far been minimal compared to the 2025 average of 1.7 million b/d, averaging only slightly around 0.3 million b/d with only one confirmed loading at the country’s largest terminal in Kharg Island.
  
  - Thanks to the volumes evacuated during the three-week period of free navigation in June-July, Chinese imports of Iranian barrels are slightly above Tehran’s pace of loading, around 800,000 b/d, however due to drawing stocks they are set to decline further next month.
  
  - Should the US maritime blockade of Iran continue, China could run out of Iranian options by October, reflected in soaring Iranian differentials as Iran Light is now traded at a $4 per barrel premium to ICE Brent.
  
  - Iranian floating storage outside of the Gulf has shrunk to just 24 million barrels, down 7 million barrels since the beginning of August, with Chinese buyers mopping up the last remaining volumes.
  
  Market Movers
  
  - US shale pioneer Continental Resources has agreed to acquire privately held Firebird Energy II, boosting its Permian portfolio by 54,000 net acres that currently yield some 32,000 boe/d of oil-weighted output.
  
  - Brazil’s state oil firm Petrobras (NYSE:PBR) has entered direct negotiations with the government of Ghana for exploration contracts covering 4 offshore blocks in the underexplored Keta basin, seeking to expand beyond Brazil.
  
  - US oil major Chevron (NYSE:CVX) has finalized its return to Libya, signing a production-sharing contract covering onshore block S4 in the Sirte basin, containing one 100-million-boe gas discovery and several unconfirmed prospects.
  
  - Guyana’s regulatory body has vowed to investigate a fire that broke out this weekend at ExxonMobil’s (NYSE:XOM) Liza Unity floating production vessel, leading to a suspension in operations.
  
  - The $8 billion sale of Shell’s (LON:SHEL) US chemical assets has drawn interest from several high-profile buyers, with ExxonMobil and LyondellBasell expressing interest along with Kuwait’s state oil firm KPC.
  
  Tuesday, August 25, 2026
  
  The Trump administration is ratcheting up sanctions pressure on Iran, threatening to sanction all commercial partners of Tehran in case they don’t wind down trade (without specifying the timelines for doing so). At the same time, Pakistan’s mediation efforts have offset the bullish momentum following Scott Bessent’s Monday press conference, with oil market participants still hoping for some form of negotiated settlement, sending ICE Brent prices lower to $89 per barrel.
  
  Washington Takes Its Iran Sanctions War Global. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent unveiled the Trump administration’s long-mooted “economic D-Day” measures against Tehran, threatening Iran’s main trading partners, without hinting at China, with exclusion from the dollar system.
  
  Iran Turns Its Hormuz Blacklist into a Contagion Risk. Tehran has threatened fines, detention and cargo confiscation against 45 tankers deemed non-compliant for dark transits through the Strait of Hormuz, warning any vessel conducting ship-to-ship transfers with them could also be listed.
  
  Hormuz Traffic Collapses as Iran Widens Its Shipping Threat. Only 2 commodity vessels crossed the Hormuz strait on Monday, a notable plunge compared to the previous 10-day average of 14, following the Iranian authorities’ threats against dark transits and vessels deemed non-compliant.
  
  Saudi Arabia’s Hormuz Bypass Runs into Red Sea Risk. A Houthi attack on the Amzan tanker owned by Saudi Arabia’s national shipping firm Bahri near Riyadh’s only operational loading port of Yanbu exposed the vulnerability of the East-West pipeline, forcing all tankers to move towards the Suez.
  
  IEA Keeps Its Oil Reserve Firepower in Check. The International Energy Agency is not discussing another emergency release after deploying 400 million barrels in March, according to its chief Fatih Birol, claiming to monitor the current situation as 80% of the IEA’s strategic stocks remain intact.
  
  Ukraine’s Drones Keep Russian Diesel Off the Market. According to Russia’s deputy prime minister Alexander Novak, Moscow may extend its diesel export ban through October after a series of Ukrainian drone strikes on southern refineries perpetuated the pressure on domestic fuel balances.
  
  Trump Rebuilds His China Tariff Wall. US President Donald Trump is set to impose an additional 7.5% tariff on Chinese goods over allegations of excess manufacturing capacity, restoring the White House’s second-term duties to 20%, less than a month before the September 24 Trump-Xi Summit.
  
  Britain Eyes an LNG Lifeline as North Sea Gas Fades. The UK government is reportedly considering investment in LNG import capacity amidst declining output, defying calls for a reversal in London’s repressive oil and gas policy that slapped a 78% headline tax under the Energy Profits Levy.
  
  Qatar’s LNG Woes Shift from Gas to Ships. QatarEnergy’s 77 mtpa Ras Laffan liquefaction plant is running short of available gas carriers as the Middle Eastern country’s Hormuz transits have stalled completely, leaving 1.2 million mt LNG afloat in the Gulf and raising the prospect of production cuts.
  
  Iran Finds More Gas, but Not Yet More Supply. Iran has reported the discovery of a giant gas field containing up to 5.7 TCf of recoverable gas, the 2nd significant gas find in the southern province of Fars alongside Pazan, with Tehran aiming for a commissioning date in the second half of 2029.
  
  EPA Relief Threat Deflates US Biofuel Credits. Prices for US ethanol blending credits plunged 16% to $1.75 after the Environmental Protection Agency delayed its compliance deadline and pending refinery exemptions raised expectations that 1.2–1.8 billion credits could return to the market.
  
  Braskem’s Petchem Slump Ends in Restructuring. Latin America’s largest petrochemical producer Braskem (NYSE:BAK) will renegotiate $10.9 billion of its unsecured debt after weak industry margins and a salt-mine disaster drained liquidity, potentially opening the door to new investors.
  
  Pemex Battles Fire at Pajaritos Terminal. Mexico's state oil firm Pemex said a fire at the Pajaritos storage terminal remains under control but has yet to be fully extinguished, claiming the blaze was sparked by an electrical storm, derailing crude loadings for the 100,000 b/d Isthmus crude stream.
  
  Trump Wins a Procedural Round on Offshore Drilling. An Alaska judge dismissed a lawsuit from environmentalists challenging President Trump’s move to allow offshore drilling, however left the question of whether a president can legally reverse a predecessor’s coastal protections unresolved.
  
  China Has the Zinc, the LME Has the Squeeze. Zinc prices hit a four-year high of $3,825 per tonne as LME inventories fell 25% since June, driven by soaring Chinese stocks and record-negative treatment charges confirming concentrate scarcity, with the LME cash premium jumping to $132 per tonne. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-08-26
  The Biggest Victims Of Trump’s Economic D-Day On Iran
  Trump’s “economic D-Day” against Iran is built around one of Washington’s most powerful weapons: access to the U.S. financial system. The problem is that the deeper Washington pushes into Iran’s remaining trade, the bigger the targets become. China... Read more Trump’s “economic D-Day” against Iran is built around one of Washington’s most powerful weapons: access to the U.S. financial system. The problem is that the deeper Washington pushes into Iran’s remaining trade, the bigger the targets become.
  
  China buys more than 80% of Iran’s seaborne crude. Iraq relies on Iranian gas for as much as 40% of its electricity generation. Turkey imported 4.5 bcm of Iranian gas in the first half of this year, while India still maintains a heavily one-sided trade relationship with Tehran. The UAE, once one of Iran’s most important commercial and financial conduits, has already suspended dealings with Tehran.
  
  The U.S. Treasury can sanction tankers, traders and small Chinese refiners without creating much collateral damage outside the Iranian trade. Going after the major banks financing that commerce is different, however. The same is true of forcing Baghdad to choose between complying with Washington and keeping Iranian gas flowing to Iraqi power stations.
  
  The Trump administration took a cautious approach on Monday. Its first round targeted nearly 60 individuals, companies and vessels and expanded sanctions across shipping, aviation, technology, gold and digital assets, but left China’s major banks untouched.
  
  That leaves the most powerful part of Trump’s threat still hanging over Iran’s trading partners. If the first round fails to cut Iranian commerce sufficiently, Washington can move from sanctioning the networks built to evade U.S. restrictions to targeting the banks and companies that still have substantial business to lose in the United States.
  
  Here are five countries facing some of the hardest choices under Trump’s new economic offensive against Iran.
  
  #1. China No country buys more Iranian oil than China, making Beijing the largest remaining source of hard-currency revenue for Tehran. Chinese imports reached 1.58 million barrels per day earlier this year before the war and U.S. blockade began squeezing those flows, with shipments falling to roughly 534,000 bpd so far in August from 823,000 bpd in July, according to Reuters.
  
  But China has spent years building an oil trade with Iran designed to minimize its exposure to U.S. sanctions. Independent teapot refineries buy much of the crude, tankers use ship-to-ship transfers and other methods to disguise its origin, and transactions are settled in Chinese currency through difficult-to-track intermediaries. Washington has repeatedly targeted pieces of that network, including Chinese refiners, trading companies and vessels involved.
  
  Those sanctions have disrupted individual companies without stopping the trade. Iranian oil flows to China reached 1.58 million bpd as recently as February even after Washington intensified sanctions on Chinese buyers. Major Chinese banks are a much more powerful target because they still depend on dollar clearing and access to the wider international financial system.
  
  Bessent stopped short of sanctioning those banks on Monday, saying the Treasury wanted to give countries time to cut their exposure before the new sanctions are enforced. But he also promised a “major announcement” involving a financial institution by the end of the week. The Treasury has already warned two larger Chinese banks that they could face secondary sanctions if Iranian funds are found moving through their systems, according to Reuters.
  
  Going after a major Chinese bank would carry much higher costs for Washington. Trump and Xi are scheduled to meet in Washington in late September, with both sides trying to preserve the trade agreement struck last November on U.S. tariffs and Chinese rare-earth supplies.
  
  China therefore remains the biggest test of how far Trump is prepared to take “economic D-Day.” Beijing has repeatedly rejected unilateral U.S. sanctions, while previous U.S. measures have failed to stop Iranian crude from reaching Chinese refiners.
  
  #2. Iraq
  
  Iraq is already struggling from the effects of the U.S.-Iran war. Iraq’s state budget is almost entirely dependent on oil exports, which have been devastated by the naval blockades and maritime crossfire in the Persian Gulf. Following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Iraq's southern oil exports plummeted by 75%, with monthly oil revenues dropping to a meager $1.2 billion, leaving the government unable to balance its books.
  
  Iran’s natural gas is absolutely critical for Iraq’s energy sector, with Iran importing $4 billion to $5 billion worth of natural gas annually from its neighbor to fuel its power stations. Indeed, Iranian gas accounts for 30% to 40% of Iraq's electricity generation, and Trump’s warning that any country providing a lifeline to Tehran will face "tremendous economic consequences" directly threatens the temporary U.S. sanctions waivers Baghdad previously enjoyed.
  
  Iraq is facing catastrophic power grid collapses if Washington fully enforces these secondary sanctions, hollowing out basic electricity access for millions of Iraqi citizens during peak season, according to Reuters.
  
  #3. Turkey
  
  Turkey’s pain from the war in Iran is set to only get worse as Washington tightens the noose on Tehran. Turkish manufacturing and textile sectors are reeling from soaring shipping costs and tightening supply chains. Turkey relies on Iran and the wider Gulf region for key manufacturing inputs, including everything from petrochemicals and helium to aluminum and around half of its fertilizer. Turkey is already facing energy supply disruptions coupled with acute inflationary pressures, with fuel prices surging by roughly 50%. These ballooning energy import costs are heavily weighing on Ankara's balance sheet, with the value of Turkey's energy imports projected to outweigh its total exports by up to $40 billion this year.
  
  Meanwhile, Turkey’s 25-year deal to buy up to 9.6 bcm of natural gas annually from Iran via the Tabriz-Ankara pipeline officially expired at the end of July 2026, with the war preventing the two sides from negotiating a new agreement. Turkey’s imports of Iranian gas spiked 34% Y/Y to 4.5 bcm during the first half of 2026, eclipsing Russian supplies, with only Azerbaijan supplying more gas.
  
  Turkey is far less dependent on Iranian gas than it was when the original supply agreement was signed. Ankara has expanded pipeline imports from Azerbaijan and Russia, built out its LNG import capacity and added floating storage and regasification terminals, giving it several alternatives when Iranian volumes disappear.
  
  But replacing Iranian gas comes at a price. The Tabriz-Ankara pipeline delivers gas directly into eastern Turkey, where alternative supplies are more difficult and expensive to move, while Iranian pipeline gas has historically been among Turkey’s cheaper sources. Losing those volumes would not leave Turkey without gas, but it would force Ankara to lean harder on LNG and other suppliers just as the war is already pushing up its energy import bill.
  
  #4. India
  
  India has relatively little exposure to Iranian crude compared with China, although purchases have resumed under U.S. exemptions. India imported $707 million worth of Iranian oil during the first half of 2026, according to government data cited by Reuters.
  
  U.S. sanctions have already reduced trade between India and Iran to a fraction of its former size. Bilateral trade fell to $1.63 billion in the 2025/26 fiscal year from $17 billion in 2018/19, with Indian exports now dominated by goods such as basmati rice, tea and pharmaceuticals, according to Reuters. That has left India with a substantial trade surplus with Iran, but the remaining trade is now directly exposed to Trump’s latest sanctions push.
  
  India faces a much larger problem from the war itself. The world’s third-largest oil consumer imports close to 90% of its crude, leaving its economy highly exposed to the surge in energy prices. Higher import costs have put additional pressure on the rupee and inflation while increasing the government’s energy bill.
  
  India’s remaining trade with Iran is heavily weighted toward Indian exports, including rice, tea and pharmaceuticals, with substantial volumes traditionally going through Dubai. The UAE’s decision to halt financial and commercial dealings with Iran has already disrupted that route, forcing Indian exporters to look for alternatives including Turkey. Further U.S. restrictions could squeeze what remains of a trading relationship that has already fallen more than 90% from its 2018/19 peak.
  
  #5. United Arab Emirates
  
  The UAE was one of Iran’s most important economic lifelines before the war, exporting roughly $21 billion worth of goods to Iran in 2024, equivalent to about 30% of Iranian imports. Iran also relied heavily on Dubai as a financial, logistics and re-export hub, making the UAE one of the most important routes connecting Iranian businesses to the wider global economy.
  
  But Abu Dhabi has already moved to cut that exposure. On August 19, the UAE suspended all financial and economic dealings with Iran until further notice after detecting two ballistic missiles launched from Iran toward maritime traffic near Emirati waters. Tehran denied targeting the UAE. The move effectively puts the UAE ahead of Trump’s new sanctions push, sharply reducing the risk that Emirati companies will be caught maintaining the kind of commercial links Washington is now targeting.
  
  That doesn’t mean the economic cost couldn’t still be heavy. The UAE was Iran’s largest source of imports before the war, while Dubai built decades of commercial ties with Iranian traders and businesses. Cutting those links therefore protects the UAE from Washington’s secondary sanctions, but also eliminates billions of dollars in trade. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-08-26
  SPR Sinks Toward Operational Minimum as U.S. Crude Inventories Build
  The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that crude oil inventories in the United States rose by 4.2 million barrels in the week ending August 21. Analysts had expected a 1.9 million-barrel build. In the week prior, US crude oil inventories fell... Read more The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that crude oil inventories in the United States rose by 4.2 million barrels in the week ending August 21. Analysts had expected a 1.9 million-barrel build. In the week prior, US crude oil inventories fell by 328,000.
  
  Commercial crude oil inventories excluding the SPR have lost just over 45 million barrels over the last nineteen weeks, with US crude inventories up 5.8 million for the year, according to API data, kept in check by draws from the SPR.
  
  For the week ending August 21, another 3.7 million barrels left the SPR to aid commercial inventories, bringing the new total inventory held in the SPR to 289.7 million barrels—a level that is 442 million barrels shy of maximum capacity.
  
  The generally accepted operational minimum for oil in the SPR is between 250-300 million barrels, below which the reserve may find it difficult to pump and process oil efficiently.
  
  US production for the week ending August 14 rose to 13.830 million bpd, up from 13.805 in the week prior, and up 503,000 bpd from a year earlier.
  
  At 2:09 pm ET on Tuesday, Brent crude was trading down on the day at $88.38 (-4.11%), a nearly $3 per barrel loss week over week.
  
  WTI was also trading down on the day, by $2.90 per barrel (-3.39%) at $82.13, down more than $3.50 per barrel from this time last week.
  
  Gasoline inventories fell this week by 3.2 million barrels in the week ending August 21. In the week prior, gasoline inventories rose by 1.076 million barrels. In the week prior, gasoline inventories were already 5% below the five-year average for this time of year, according to the latest EIA data.
  
  Distillate inventories fell by 500,000 barrels, after a 2.797-barrel loss in the week prior. Distillate inventories were 13% below the five-year average heading into this reporting period, the latest EIA data shows.
  
  Cushing inventory—the inventory kept at the delivery hub for the WTI Crude futures contract—rose by 1 million barrels over the reporting period after falling by 1.439 million barrels in the week prior.
  
  Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-08-26
  Satellite Images Show Seven Tankers Loading Iraqi Crude at Once
  Seven crude carriers were moored at Iraq’s Persian Gulf export facilities on August 24—a sharp increase from recent weeks. The carriers had a combined carrying capacity of roughly 13 million barrels, according to satellite imagery analyzed by Bloomberg. TankerTrackers.com... Read more Seven crude carriers were moored at Iraq’s Persian Gulf export facilities on August 24—a sharp increase from recent weeks. The carriers had a combined carrying capacity of roughly 13 million barrels, according to satellite imagery analyzed by Bloomberg.
  
  TankerTrackers.com separately said it counted and identified 13 million barrels loading Monday at Iraq’s Al Basrah Oil Terminal.
  
  That is a dramatic departure from the past several weeks, when satellite passes typically showed just one or two tankers at Iraq’s offshore export facilities on any given day.
  
  Before the Iran war, six tankers occupying the terminal’s eight berths at once was normal.
  
  Monday’s activity does not mean Iraqi exports have returned to pre-war levels. It is a one-day snapshot, and every one of those barrels still has to make it through the Strait of Hormuz.
  
  Regional oil flows have stayed well below pre-war norms even as more Gulf producers experiment with covert transits, ship-to-ship transfers and alternative export routes.
  
  Iran’s own crude exports have been particularly hard hit. August loadings are running around 300,000 barrels per day (bpd), compared with a 2025 average of roughly 1.7 million bpd, while floating Iranian storage outside the Gulf has fallen to about 24 million barrels.
  
  Iraq has had considerably more success keeping barrels moving.
  
  The country said earlier this month that it was exporting around 2 million bpd despite the Hormuz disruption, and Chinese refiners have been snapping up Iraqi Basrah Medium and Basrah Heavy as supplies from elsewhere in the Gulf tighten.
  
  Seven tankers loading at once does not prove the Gulf oil crisis is easing. But after weeks of sparse activity at Basra, it is at least evidence that Iraq is managing to push more crude toward the exit.
  
  Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-08-26
  China Defies U.S. Economic D-Day against Iran
  China on Tuesday signaled it would not end its ties and trade relations with Iran following the U.S. sanctions unveiled on Monday that target Chinese and Hong Kong entities for helping Iran do business. On Monday, the U.S. Administration announced... Read more China on Tuesday signaled it would not end its ties and trade relations with Iran following the U.S. sanctions unveiled on Monday that target Chinese and Hong Kong entities for helping Iran do business.
  
  On Monday, the U.S. Administration announced a series of new sanctions against individuals and entities linked with Iranian trade and economy, including the shipping and oil industry.
  
  However, “Operation Economic Outcast,” launched by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, stopped short of sanctioning any Chinese banks.
  
  The oil trade remains one of the U.S. sanctions campaign’s primary targets. Monday’s designations include brokers, companies, and shadow-fleet vessels operating across the UAE, Hong Kong, China, Singapore, Switzerland, and Europe that transport Iranian oil and channel revenues to Iranian entities. OFAC also sanctioned international companies operating in Iran’s petroleum sector and facilitating the movement and sale of Iranian crude and petroleum products.
  
  In the first official and public reaction to the ‘Economic D-Day’, Lin Jian, spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, said at a regular press conference on Tuesday that “China has made clear on many occasions its firm opposition to illicit unilateral sanctions that have no basis in international law or the authorization of the UN Security Council. Economic warfare and maximum pressure provide no solution.”
  
  Such moves by the U.S. “only serve to fuel tensions and lead to risk spillover, which will disrupt the global economic and financial order, and harm the legitimate rights and interests of other countries,” the spokesperson added.
  
  “China will do everything necessary to firmly safeguard its rights and interests,” he said on several occasions, hinting that China could retaliate against the U.S. if sanctions further expand.
  
  Asked if China would be willing to change some of its behaviors and interactions with Iran to comply with U.S. demands, the official said that “China’s cooperation with Iran is conducted within the framework of international law, thus should not be disrupted. China is closely following the developments, and will do everything necessary to firmly safeguard its rights and interests.” Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-08-26
  Hormuz Crisis Boosts Appeal of $42-Billion Tanzania LNG
  Equinor sees a multi-billion LNG export project in Tanzania becoming more attractive for development amid the Middle East conflict that has crippled liquefied natural gas supply through the Strait of Hormuz, a senior executive at the Norwegian energy... Read more Equinor sees a multi-billion LNG export project in Tanzania becoming more attractive for development amid the Middle East conflict that has crippled liquefied natural gas supply through the Strait of Hormuz, a senior executive at the Norwegian energy major said on Tuesday.
  
  However, Equinor and its co-operator of the project, Shell, have been locked in difficult negotiations with the government and authorities in Tanzania for years and the provisional Tanzania LNG project has not advanced much this decade.
  
  “You don't want to wait too long to put new LNG volumes on the market, so maybe now is a good time to get on with it,” Philippe Mathieu, Executive Vice President, Exploration & Production International, at Equinor, said at an energy conference in the Norwegian city of Stavanger, as carried by Reuters.
  
  The Hormuz crisis and the now-dead assumption that Qatar and other Gulf producers are the most reliable suppliers of oil and gas make the project in Tanzania, estimated to cost $42 billion, more attractive, the executive said.
  
  “It means you are producing LNG in an area which is not exposed to these kinds of geopolitical challenges,” Mathieu added.
  
  Shell and Equinor, the joint operators of the project, have been pursuing for years agreements to start developing the planned $42-billion LNG export project in Tanzania. The project for connecting natural gas discoveries offshore Tanzania with an export terminal on its coast has been a decade in the making.
  
  But the international oil and gas majors have failed to reach so far detailed and definitive agreements with Tanzania’s government about the terms and conditions in what could be the country’s biggest-ever foreign investment.
  
  After buying BG Group in 2016, Shell became the operator of two offshore blocks in Tanzania, Block 1 and Block 4, together with its partners Medco Energi (Ophir Energy) and Pavilion Energy. A total of 16 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of natural gas has been discovered in the blocks.
  
  Equinor, for its part, started exploration drilling activities in Block 2 offshore Tanzania in 2011 and has made nine discoveries with estimated volumes of more than 20 Tcf of gas in place. Source: Oilprice.com

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