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MABUX ARA LNG Bunker Index
Port LNG$/mton MGO LS$/mton Date
ARA
995.00
-32.00
1 135.00
-75.00
Apr 13
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Port	LNG$/mton	MGO LS$/mton	Date
ARA	995.00	-32.00	1 135.00	-75.00	Apr 13

MABUX Global Bunker Index

380HSFO$/mton		VLS FO$/mton		MGO LS$/mton		Date
742.68	-9.36	870.45	-8.19	1 413.43	-24.36	Apr 17

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MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI)

Correlation between market bunker prices (MBP) and MABUX Digital Bunker Price Benchmark (DBP)

All Indexes in $/mton	380HSFO			VLS FO			MGO LS			Date
All Indexes in $/mton	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	Date
Rotterdam	595	694	-99	650	772	-122	1 135	1 315	-180	Apr 17
Singapore	640	723	-83	700	860	-160	1 309	1 308	+1	Apr 17
Fujairah	604	668	-64	703	829	-126	1 480	1 371	+109	Apr 17
Houston	613	704	-91	817	818	-1	1 125	1 220	-95	Apr 17

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Analytical Section
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Latest News
- 2026-04-17
  Oil falls 11% after Iran declares Strait of Hormuz open
  Oil prices fell by around 11% on Friday after Iran’s foreign minister said passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz was open for the remaining ceasefire period and U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran has agreed to never close... Read more Oil prices fell by around 11% on Friday after Iran’s foreign minister said passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz was open for the remaining ceasefire period and U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran has agreed to never close the strait again.
  Brent crude futures fell $10.42, or 10.48%, to $88.97 a barrel by 12:39 p.m. EDT (1639 GMT), after falling to a session low of $86.09. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down $11.48, or 12.12%, at $83.21 a barrel, after touching $80.56.
  Both contracts were trading at their lowest since March 10, and set for their largest daily declines since April 8.
  Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said the Strait of Hormuz was open following the agreement of a ceasefire in Lebanon.
  "With the market now rapidly unwinding the extreme risk premium built over the past two weeks, crude is shifting back toward pricing actual flow normalization rather than disruption risk," Gelber & Associates analysts said in a note.
  PROGRESS IN NEGOTIATIONS
  The U.S. and Iran have made progress in the negotiations over a three-page memorandum of understanding to end the war, according to an Axios reporter on X.
  Prices had already fallen earlier in the session as possible further talks between the United States and Iran over the weekend and a 10-day ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel raised investors’ hopes the war in the Middle East could be nearing an end.
  
  Addressing a sticking point in the talks, Trump said Tehran had offered to not possess nuclear weapons for more than 20 years.
  "We’re going to see what happens. But I think we’re very close to making a deal with Iran," Trump told reporters outside the White House on Thursday.
  Trump also said on Friday that the United States has banned Israel from further bombing in Lebanon, using a harsher tone than usual with the longtime U.S. ally.
  Shortly after the announcement that the strait was open, a U.S. official told Reuters that a military blockade of Iran involving more than 10,000 personnel remains in effect.
  While the opening of the strait was a step in the right direction, the European market would remain tight for a while, analyst Ole Hvalbye at SEB Research said, since it takes roughly 21 days for ships to move from the Gulf to Rotterdam, the main crude port in the region.
  Traffic could be halted once again in the strait, if an agreement about Iran’s nuclear ambitions and lifting of the U.S. sanctions remains elusive, said Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates. Source: Reuters/Investing.com
- 2026-04-17
  Existing LNG infrastructure to support transition to low-GHG methane: DNV
  Compatibility of LNG systems with low-GHG methane reduces infrastructural barriers, shifting constraints to fuel production and cost. Existing LNG infrastructure is expected to support shipping’s transition to low-GHG methane, according to a white... Read more Compatibility of LNG systems with low-GHG methane reduces infrastructural barriers, shifting constraints to fuel production and cost.
  
  Existing LNG infrastructure is expected to support shipping’s transition to low-GHG methane, according to a white paper by DNV.
  
  The report highlights that LNG bunkering infrastructure has developed significantly in recent years, with availability now established at major bunker hubs along key trade routes.
  
  This infrastructure can also be used to supply liquefied low-GHG methane. DNV notes that low-GHG methane, including bio-methane and e-methane, is compatible with existing LNG systems and can be used as a drop-in fuel without requiring technical modifications to LNG-capable ships.
  
  As a result, infrastructure barriers for low-GHG methane are considered similar to those for LNG, with the same bunkering network able to support both fuels.
  
  The report instead identifies upstream challenges as the main constraints to wider adoption. Low-GHG methane production remains limited and more expensive than fossil LNG, while availability must scale to meet potential future demand from shipping and other sectors. Source: ENGIИE
- 2026-04-17
  MOL charters LNG dual-fuel newbuild to Inpex
  MOL Encean, a subsidiary of Japan’s shipping major Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (MOL), has signed a long-term charter agreement with Inpex Shipping, part of oil company Inpex Corporation, for a new LNG dual-fuel LNG carrier. The vessel, Harmonic Breeze, will... Read more MOL Encean, a subsidiary of Japan’s shipping major Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (MOL), has signed a long-term charter agreement with Inpex Shipping, part of oil company Inpex Corporation, for a new LNG dual-fuel LNG carrier.
  
  The vessel, Harmonic Breeze, will have a capacity of 174,000 cbm and will be capable of operating on both LNG and conventional marine fuels. It is currently being built at Hanwha Ocean’s Geoje Shipyard in South Korea, with delivery scheduled for later this month.
  
  Once completed, the vessel will be deployed to transport LNG cargoes for Inpex.
  
  The carrier is also fitted with a shaft generator that converts the propulsion shaft’s rotation into electricity, along with an air lubrication system that releases bubbles along the hull to reduce drag and lower fuel consumption. Source: Ship.energy
- 2026-04-17
  Pacific Basin pivots back to conventional fuels amid IMO uncertainty
  Hong Kong-based shipowner Pacific Basin has cancelled orders for four methanol-capable vessels and shifted back to conventional-fuelled tonnage. The company cited “renewed uncertainty around the timing and final shape” of the IMO’s Net-Zero Framework... Read more Hong Kong-based shipowner Pacific Basin has cancelled orders for four methanol-capable vessels and shifted back to conventional-fuelled tonnage.
  
  The company cited “renewed uncertainty around the timing and final shape” of the IMO’s Net-Zero Framework as the reason for its shift back to conventional fuels.
  
  The dry bulk operator has agreed to terminate contracts with two unnamed Japanese shipbuilders for four methanol-capable newbuilds. It will instead proceed with four conventionally fuelled vessels under revised agreements with the same counterparties, with deliveries expected by 2029.
  
  Separately, Pacific Basin has ordered two 40,000-dwt conventional-fuelled vessels from China’s Jiangmen Nanyang Ship Engineering, scheduled for delivery by the end of 2028.
  
  The move reflects a more cautious approach to alternative fuel investment as regulatory clarity remains elusive amid a growing political divide ahead of key IMO negotiations in the next two weeks.
  
  But the company has not abandoned methanol entirely. It has also secured an option with Japan's Mitsui & Co to purchase two methanol-capable newbuilds by 2027 with possible deliveries between 2030 and 2031. Source: ENGIИE
- 2026-04-17
  Rotterdam sees significant decline in Q1 bunker sales
  Sales of marine fuel at the Port of Rotterdam in the first three months of the year fell by approximately 25% compared to 2025. The largest decrease occurred in the fossil fuel oil segment, particularly very low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO), which sank... Read more
- 2026-04-17
  Stage set for launch of multinational initiative to open the Strait of Hormuz
  UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and President Macron of France will chair a virtual meeting later today (17 March) of the new Strait of Hormuz Maritime Freedom of Navigation Initiative, which is being established as ‘an international mission’ to look at... Read more
- 2026-04-17
  Repsol set to increase its Venezuelan oil production
  Spain-headquartered Repsol has signed an agreement with the Venezuelan government and the state-owned company Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) to reassume operational control at the Petroquiriquire oil asset and increase its oil production in the country, The... Read more
- 2026-04-17
  EU methane regulation must be ‘ambitious in design, but also workable in practice,’ says Vitol exec
  As the EU Methane Regulation moves closer to a 2027 deadline that will require stricter standards for import contracts, Davide Rubini, Vitol’s Head of Regulatory Affairs for Gas, Power & Environmental Products in EMEA, has called for a ‘practical, harmonised... Read more
- 2026-04-17
  Oil falls on prospects for talks to end Iran war and revive supply
  Oil prices fell in early trade on Friday on optimism the Middle East conflict could be nearing an end after a 10-day ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel took effect and President Donald Trump said the U.S. and Iran may meet for talks on the weekend. Brent... Read more Oil prices fell in early trade on Friday on optimism the Middle East conflict could be nearing an end after a 10-day ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel took effect and President Donald Trump said the U.S. and Iran may meet for talks on the weekend.
  Brent crude futures declined by $1.34, or 1.35%, to $98.05 a barrel at 0021 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell $1.65, or 1.74%, to $93.40 a barrel, trimming gains from the previous session.
  Addressing a key sticking point in talks to end the Iran war, which has closed the Strait of Hormuz for seven weeks and choked off roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply, Trump said Tehran had offered not to possess nuclear weapons for more than 20 years.
  
  "We’re going to see what happens. But I think we’re very close to making a deal with Iran," Trump told reporters outside the White House on Thursday.
  Oil prices climbed 50% in March in a record run and have only recently fallen below the $100 per barrel mark but have stayed within the $90 range for the week.
  Israel’s campaign in Lebanon has been a major obstacle to securing a peace deal sought by Trump to end the war on Iran he launched with Israel in late February.
  U.S. and Iranian negotiators have scaled back their expectations for a comprehensive peace deal and are instead seeking a temporary memorandum to prevent a return to conflict, two Iranian sources told Reuters on Thursday.
  
  Analysts from ING estimate that roughly 13 million barrels per day of oil flow has been disrupted by the closure of the Strait. Source: Reuters/Investing.com
- 2026-04-17
  What’s Next for Oil Prices?
  Oil prices have held steady below $100 per barrel since the U.S. on Monday initiated a naval blockade to deter Iran-linked ships from passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The three days of calmer oil futures markets so far this week aren’t expected... Read more Oil prices have held steady below $100 per barrel since the U.S. on Monday initiated a naval blockade to deter Iran-linked ships from passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
  
  The three days of calmer oil futures markets so far this week aren’t expected to last long amid the volatile geopolitical situation at the world’s most vital oil shipping lane.
  
  The price of oil has the potential to either surge to new highs or slump to pre-war levels, depending on the U.S.-Iran talks, but most of all—on the status of navigability of the Strait of Hormuz and how fast some semblance of normal traffic could eventually resume.
  
  For now, despite the U.S. blockade and Central Command’s claim that the blockade is a major success, traffic of non-Iranian vessels hasn’t been restored, while some Iran-flagged ships have been observed by vessel-tracking providers to have successfully breached the blockade.
  
  Globally, physical supply remains severely constrained, as evidenced by $150 per barrel prices for some non-Middle Eastern crudes that refiners are willing to pay for. The price of physical crude for immediate delivery has soared amid the supply constraints and is about $40 per barrel more expensive than the futures.
  
  But the futures market moves on headlines and sentiment, and right now it pins its hopes on the prospect of renewed U.S.-Iran talks, possibly as soon as this week.
  
  For analysts, forecasting oil prices has become even more guesswork than ever before, as uncertainties and conflicting messages from the Trump Administration have reduced visibility on price projections to near zero.
  
  Goldman Sachs, for example, this week kept its average Brent and WTI forecasts for 2026, at $83 and $78 per barrel, respectively. The investment bank, however, flagged both upside and downside risks to these projections.
  
  Upside vs Downside Risks
  
  Low oil flow volumes through the Strait of Hormuz pose the biggest upside risk, according to a Goldman note cited by Reuters. The Wall Street bank’s analysts estimated that oil flows are only 10% of pre-war levels at just 2.1 million barrels per day (bpd), and no LNG has yet passed the Strait since the war began on February 28.
  
  “The ceasefire has diminished the risk premium and the probability of very lengthy and large supply losses,” Daan Struyven, Goldman Sachs co-head of global commodities research, told CNBC’s ‘Squawk on the Street’ program on Wednesday.
  
  “At the same time the flows through the Strait are taking time to recover, so net it’s still upside to the forecast,” Struyven added.
  
  Goldman has quantified the current damage to supply at about 10-11 million bpd, while demand losses are perhaps offsetting about 3 million bpd of these, the strategist said.
  
  Demand losses are already very significant in Asia, especially in the aviation and petrochemicals sector. The longer the demand destruction in Asia lasts, the more it would spread to other continents and to other product markets, Struyven noted.
  
  Goldman Sachs kept its price forecasts unchanged from last week as it assumes that the flows at the Strait of Hormuz would begin to recover and reach near-normal by the middle of May, and Gulf countries’ upstream production takes until mid-June to recover, Struyven told CNBC.
  
  Last week, Goldman Sachs warned that Brent Crude is expected to average above $100 per barrel this year if the Strait of Hormuz remains mostly shut to tanker traffic for another month.
  
  If the severely limited traffic at the Strait of Hormuz continues for longer than another month, this would lead to additional loss of upstream production in the Middle East. In this case, Brent Crude prices could average $120 per barrel in the third quarter and $115 in the final quarter of the year, according to Goldman Sachs.
  
  On the downside for oil prices, the bank estimates that the production shut-ins in the Persian Gulf are lower than previously feared. Moreover, there is significant demand destruction – due to spiking prices and shortages – which allows the market to rebalance with “slightly less elevated prices” than it would have otherwise, Struyven said.
  
  Other analysts also flag firmly two-sided risk to their outlooks.
  
  The oil futures market is steady or lower amid hopes that the U.S. and Iran would extend their ceasefire by another two weeks, along with a potential resumption in talks to bring an end to the war, ING commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said in a Thursday note.
  
  “However, the physical market is becoming tighter every day that passes without a restart of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz,” they noted.
  
  After taking into consideration pipeline diversions and the trickle of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, ING estimates that roughly 13 million bpd has been disrupted and “with the US blockade, this number could creep higher.”
  
  Scandinavian bank SEB assumes in its base-case scenario that the Strait of Hormuz would operate at only 20% of normal capacity until mid-May before full reopening, and that no further major oil or gas infrastructure in the Persian Gulf is damaged.
  
  Yet, SEB reiterated in a Wednesday note that “the SoH is not Trump's alone to reopen” as Iran could opt to retain some control even if a deal is reached.
  
  “The risk to our outlook is firmly two-sided: faster diplomacy could bring prices down materially from here, while a breakdown in talks or, worse, infrastructure damage could send financial Brent contracts violently higher, while also pushing Dated Brent decisively above USD 150/bl,” Ole Hvalbye, Analyst Commodities at SEB, wrote. Source: Oilprice.com

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