Mabux: Global Bunker Prices

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MABUX ARA LNG Bunker Index
Port LNG$/mton MGO LS$/mton Date
ARA
1 246.90
+181.62
945.00
+10.00
Jan 24
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Port	LNG$/mton	MGO LS$/mton	Date
ARA	1 246.90	+181.62	945.00	+10.00	Jan 24

MABUX Global Bunker Index

380HSFO$/mton		VLS FO$/mton		MGO LS$/mton		Date
492.87	+4.76	728.34	+8.60	1 073.37	+3.92	Jan 27

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MBP INDEX vs DBP INDEX (ICE/NYMEX)

All Indexes in $/mton	380HSFO			VLS FO			MGO LS			Date
All Indexes in $/mton	MBP Index	DBP Index	Diff	MBP Index	DBP Index	Diff	MBP Index	DBP Index	Diff	Date
Rotterdam	413	532	-119	616	648	-32	945	1 021	-76	Jan 27
Singapore	430	552	-122	701	656	+45	940	1 030	-90	Jan 27
Fujairah	403	570	-167	680	654	+26	1 190	1 078	+112	Jan 27
Houston	418	497	-79	640	628	+12	1 040	1 077	-37	Jan 27

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Analytical Section
- Daily and Weekly Bunker analyses and Future Curves
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MABUX for Industry
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Latest News
- 2023-01-27
  Oil prices fall on profit taking, strong Russian supply
  Oil prices reversed earlier gains on Friday as indications of strong Russian oil supply offset better than expected U.S. economic growth data, strong middle distillate refining margins and hopes of a rapid recovery in Chinese demand. Brent futures were... Read more Oil prices reversed earlier gains on Friday as indications of strong Russian oil supply offset better than expected U.S. economic growth data, strong middle distillate refining margins and hopes of a rapid recovery in Chinese demand.
  Brent futures were down 51 cents, or 0.6%, at $86.96 a barrel by 11:29 a.m. EDT (1629 GMT.) U.S. crude fell 65 cents, or 0.8%, to $80.37. Both benchmarks rose by more than $1 earlier in the session but are now poised to break a three week run of gains.
  Oil loadings from Russia's Baltic ports are set to rise by 50% this month from December as sellers try to meet strong demand in Asia and benefit from rising global energy prices, traders said and Reuters calculations showed.
  Urals and KEBCO crude oil loadings from Ust-Luga over Feb. 1-10 may rise to 1.0 million tonnes from 0.9 million in the plan for the same period of January, traders also.
  "If Russian supply remains strong heading into next month, oil is probably going to continue to trend lower," said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital LLC in New York.
  He added that profit taking ahead of the weekend may also have driven prices lower.
  OPEC+ delegates meet next week to review crude production levels, with sources from the oil producer group expecting no change to current output policy.
  The U.S. Federal Reserve's next decision on interest rates will be made at meeting over Jan. 31 and Feb. 1 against a backdrop of a dip in inflation and gross domestic product that grew by a faster than expected 2.9% in the fourth quarter.
  "The positive batch of data gave oil prices a lift," said PVM analyst Stephen Brennock.
  A 4.2 million barrel build this week in stocks at Cushing, the pricing hub for NYMEX oil futures, also weighed on the market. [EIA/S]
  "We believe soaring middle-distillate prices and cracks are mostly behind crude’s bullish price action," JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) said in a note, pointing to heavy refinery maintenance and outages, plus the European ban on Russian refined products from Feb. 5.
  In China, critically ill COVID-19 cases are down 72% from a peak early this month while daily deaths among COVID-19 patients in hospitals have dropped by 79% from their peak, pointing to a normalisation of the Chinese economy and boosting expectations of a recovery in oil demand. Source: Reuters/Investing.com
- 2023-01-27
  EUROPE: PORT OF ROTTERDAM RECORDS MARGINAL Y-O-Y INCREASE IN VESSEL CALLS
  The Port of Rotterdam Authority registered 29,029 sea-going vessel arrivals in 2022 – 0.5% up on the 28,876 seen in 2021. However, the number of inland vessels saw a slight decrease on the year, from 98,469 in 2021 to 97,459 in 2022. Looking ahead,... Read more
- 2023-01-27
  AMERICAS: PETROBRAS BOARD APPROVES ELECTION OF CEO
  Petrobras has announced that its Board of Directors yesterday (26 January) elected Jean Paul Terra Prates as the company's CEO. He will hold the CEO position until the next General Shareholders’ Meeting, which is set for 13 April. The 54-year-old... Read more
- 2023-01-27
  GLOBAL: MAERSK ANNOUNCES PLANS TO BECOME A ‘UNIFIED’ BRAND
  After this week’s announcement of its uncoupling from MSC and the 2M Alliance, Maersk has now revealed its intention to become a single, unified brand, which will mean the integration of the Sealand, Hamburg Süd and Twill brands, as well as those businesses... Read more
- 2023-01-27
  AMERICAS: IMPERIAL OIL SET TO INVEST $560 MILLION IN ‘CANADA’S LARGEST RENEWABLE DIESEL FACILITY’
  ExxonMobil has announced that its majority-owned affiliate, Imperial Oil, will invest about $560 million to move forward with construction of ‘the largest renewable diesel facility in Canada’. Located at Imperial’s Strathcona refinery site, the plant... Read more
- 2023-01-27
  GLOBAL: NYK TO BUILD FIFTH LPG-FUELLED LPG/AMMONIA CARRIER
  NYK has announced the order of its fifth liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) dual-fuel very large LPG / liquefied ammonia gas carrier (VLGC) from Kawasaki Heavy Industries (KHI). The ship will be built at the KHI Sakaide Works shipyard and is set for delivery... Read more
- 2023-01-27
  Oil prices advance on U.S. growth, Chinese recovery hope
  Oil prices edged ahead for a second session on Friday, buoyed by stronger-than-expected U.S. economic growth and hopes of a rapid recovery in Chinese demand as COVID-19 cases and deaths plunged from last month's peak levels. Brent futures gained 30 cents,... Read more Oil prices edged ahead for a second session on Friday, buoyed by stronger-than-expected U.S. economic growth and hopes of a rapid recovery in Chinese demand as COVID-19 cases and deaths plunged from last month's peak levels.
  Brent futures gained 30 cents, or 0.34%, to $87.77 a barrel by 0321 GMT, while U.S. crude rose 34 cents to $81.35 per barrel, a 0.42% gain. Both benchmarks had gained more than 1% on Thursday.
  "Oil might have trouble making any substantial moves to finish the week as many traders will wait to see what happens with next week's two massive events; the OPEC+ virtual meeting on output and the FOMC decision," said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA.
  OPEC+ delegates will meet next week to review crude production levels, amid steady support for crude prices from strong demand for jet fuel and diesel. The U.S. Federal Reserve will decide on another rate hike, as inflation cools and gross domestic product improves.
  Gains on U.S. crude were limited by a 4.2 million barrel build in stocks at Cushing, the pricing hub for NYMEX oil futures, earlier this week.
  Still, oil markets were boosted by broad optimism on the first day of the return of Chinese stock markets as China's reopening still plays a main role in boosting the demand outlook, said Tina Teng, analyst at CMC Markets.
  Critically ill COVID-19 cases in China are down 72% from a peak early this month while daily deaths among COVID-19 patients in hospitals have dropped 79% from their peak, pointing to a normalisation of the Chinese economy and boosting expectations of a recovery in oil demand.
  "The short-term bullish factor is that the recent outage in the U.S. refineries helped push up gasoline prices, though the U.S. crude inventories hit a 16-month high," Teng said. Source: Reuters/Investing.com
- 2023-01-27
  Why Oil Won’t Trade Above $100 This Year
  After an initial dip, the oil price rally has been a steady grind upwards in the current year, with the last 12 trading days seeing 10 days of higher intraday highs and 11 days of higher intraday lows. Brent is currently trading at $87.50 per barrel (as... Read more After an initial dip, the oil price rally has been a steady grind upwards in the current year, with the last 12 trading days seeing 10 days of higher intraday highs and 11 days of higher intraday lows. Brent is currently trading at $87.50 per barrel (as of Jan 26 at 12:24p.m. EST)--more than $10 from this year’s low. And now commodity analysts at Standard Chartered are saying that positive speculative sentiment in the oil markets can support prices above $90/bbl.
  
  According to the experts, their proprietary crude oil money-manager positioning index increased by 23.2 w/w to -39.6, the largest w/w improvement since the price lows of April 2020. StanChart says that improving sentiment can be chalked up to trader consensus becoming less concerned about OECD recession and more convinced that the oil markets will see significant demand growth, from China and India in particular. The analysts say that the rally is likely to take Brent prices past $90/bbl, though they are not optimistic that the fundamentals are strong enough to sustain prices above USD 100/bbl.
  
  Other market indicators have mostly been positive. Implied demand for total oil products increased by 2.687 million barrels per day (mb/d) w/w, the largest weekly rise in demand since December 2021. The big jump in demand came hot on the heels of weeks of depressed demand. Implied gasoline demand increased by 496 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) w/w; distillates by 203kb/d and jet fuel by 91kb/d. Total US refinery runs increased by 0.202mb/d w/w to 14.853mb/d but remain 1.4mb/d lower than the five-year average.
  
  However, crude oil stocks rose to an 18-month high of 448.02mb, rising by 9.85mb against the five-year average and 8.41mb in absolute terms. The cumulative increase in crude oil inventories over the past two weeks is 27.37mb, 12.3mb above the five-year average. Crude stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma increased by 3.646mb w/w; the largest weekly increase since April 2020, as refinery turnaround season continues.
  
  Oil Demand To Continue Growing
  
  Perhaps the best news for long-term investors is that oil demand is unlikely to taper off any time soon.
  
  A couple of years ago, European oil and gas supermajor BP Plc. (NYSE: BP) dramatically declared that the world was already past Peak Oil demand. In the company’s 2020 Energy Outlook, chief executive Bernard Looney pledged that BP would increase its renewables spending twentyfold to $5 billion a year by 2030 and “... not enter any new countries for oil and gas exploration.”
  
  Meanwhile, its European peer Shell Plc (NYSE: SHEL) said that its oil production will decline by 18% by 2030 as the world shifts to renewable energy. When many analysts talk about Peak Oil, they are usually referring to that point in time when global oil demand enters a phase of terminal and irreversible decline.
  
  But it's becoming increasingly clear that these European energy giants were premature with their dire predictions, with black swan events such as the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s war in Ukraine blindsiding them. Energy experts at Energy Intelligence Group have predicted that not only will oil demand grow in 2023 but it will continue doing so till the end of the decade.
  
  According to the analyst, global oil demand will grow to 101.2 million barrels per day in the current year and will continue growing to hit 106 mb/d by 2030. Global oil demand will grow by 1.5 mb/d in 2023, with China accounting for 650,000 b/d after the country abandoned its rigorous zero-Covid policy. Indeed, this year’s average will top the previous high of 100.6 mb/d set in 2019.
  
  While this is great news for the oil bulls, the expert says that growth will primarily be driven by petrochemicals rather than transport fuels, and has also said that its base case is a plateau rather than a decline. Actually, Energy Intelligence is not the only bull here. OPEC, Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) and the Energy Information Administration (EIA), have all predicted that global oil demand will actually grow as we go along and not shrink as many analysts have forecast.
  
  Some of the biggest beneficiaries of growing oil demand will be oilfield services companies. Benchmark's Kurt Hallead says Schlumberger Ltd (NYSE: SLB) and its peer Halliburton Company (NYSE: HAL) are set to benefit in the intermediate term from increased exploration and production spending on international and offshore projects, and become leaders in the energy transition in the long term.
  
  The analyst has launched coverage with Buy ratings with respective $65 and $50 price targets, good for 13.3% and 22.9% upside, respectively. Schlumberger has impressed after reporting fourth-quarter revenue of $7.9 billion, good for a 5% sequential increase and 27% year on year. Fourth-quarter GAAP EPS of $0.74 increased 17% sequentially and 76% year on year while EPS, excluding charges and credits, of $0.71 increased 13% sequentially and 73% year on year.
  
  The consensus for the company was for earnings to grow 66% to 68 cents per share and revenue to increase 25% to $7.81 billion. SLB CEO Olivier Le Peuch said that revenue grew across all its business divisions and geographical areas and also added there was "robust" year-end sales in the company’s digital services. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2023-01-27
  MABUX: Upward evolution to prevail in Global bunker market on Jan.27.
  MABUX World Bunker Index (as index calculated on current prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO and MGO) continued slight downward trend on Jan. 26: 380 HSFO - USD/MT – 488.11 (-2.08) VLSFO - USD/MT – 719.74 (-2.45) MGO - USD/MT – 1 069.45 (-7.05) As of January... Read more MABUX World Bunker Index (as index calculated on current prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO and MGO) continued slight downward trend on Jan. 26:
  
  380 HSFO - USD/MT – 488.11 (-2.08)
  VLSFO - USD/MT – 719.74 (-2.45)
  MGO - USD/MT – 1 069.45 (-7.05)
  
  As of January 26, the MABUX MBP/DBP Index (MDI) (comparison of market bunker prices vs. the MABUX digital bunker price Benchmark) registered no significant changes in underprice premium at all selected ports in the HSFO segment, underprice steady and overprice up in the VLSFO segment, overprice ratio au in Fujairah while underprice ratio down at three other ports in the MGO LS segment.
  
  We expect Global bunker indices to turn to upward evolution on Jan.27: 380 HSFO – plus 3-6 USD/MT, VLSFO – plus 4-9 USD/MT, MGO LS – plus 5-11 USD/MT.
  Source: MABUX
- 2023-01-27
  Citi: European Oil Majors Could Become Acquisition Targets
  Merger and acquisition activity in the United States oil and gas industry last year slumped to the lowest in 17 years as buyers became pickier. But besides being picky, they were also willing to spend, Enverus reported earlier this week. Now, Citi analysts... Read more Merger and acquisition activity in the United States oil and gas industry last year slumped to the lowest in 17 years as buyers became pickier. But besides being picky, they were also willing to spend, Enverus reported earlier this week. Now, Citi analysts are suggesting they may get even more generous with acquisitions. BP and Shell, the European supermajors, could become acquisition targets for their American peers Exxon and Chevron, the bank’s analysts said in a note this week, arguing that the Europeans’ stocks have been affected by attitudes towards ESG investing and the energy transition, turning them into a potential value proposition for the American supermajors.
  
  “The CoE of European oils remains handcuffed by investor and political headwinds,” Citi analyst Alastair Syme said in the note, as quoted by Proactive Investors. “What is really needed is for the industry to arbitrage this value itself.”
  
  “We look at the strategic imperative, financial accretion and political headwinds of either of the two US IOCs (Exxon or Chevron) potentially looking to try and acquire one of their key European competitors (BP, Shell or TotalEnergies),” Syme also said.
  
  According to the bank, the two European supermajors are currently trading at a discount of more than 40 percent to Exxon and Chevron, MarketWatch reported, citing the same note. The analysts, however, noted that most of this discount comes from a general premium that U.S. stocks enjoy over European ones.
  
  Yet some of the discount comes from the political realities of Europe, where pressure is strong on investors to shun the oil and gas sector like the plague and focus instead on low-carbon energy opportunities. The oil price rally from last year and the upbeat forecasts for current and future oil demand have done nothing to change that sentiment.
  
  “The prize for the U.S. IOCs would look considerable, with value uplift coming through the ability to fund at a lower [cost of equity] as well as cost-synergies that we estimate in [net present value] terms in the region of 15-30% of target market-cap,” the Citi analyst team wrote.
  
  This would be quite a lucrative opportunity if Exxon and Chevron start to feel like growing inorganically. They might well do that, too, after a strong year and another on the way as the oil market supply and demand situation remains in precarious balance, with the danger of a shortage always lurking behind the corner.
  
  So, the American supermajors may well have the money to snatch BP or Shell, and according to Citi, the European competition authorities are unlikely to put up much of a fight, if at all. In fact, the bank’s analysts suggested the European political circles may be glad to see the supermajors gone.
  
  “European politicians would undoubtedly rattle their sabres, but given they have already set out an anti-oil narrative it seems unlikely they would intervene directly. Competition authorities are unlikely to put up blockers, at least not enough to remove the value-accretion potential,” Citi said.
  
  Of course, as MarketWatch points out, if the hypothetical scenario does materialize and a European supermajor becomes part of an American one, spending on renewables will decline—probably sizeably—and that’s hardly something the anti-oil political lobby in the EU would like to see.
  
  On the other hand, that would be happening far from European shores, so they might decide to look the other way, pretty much the way they did with all that American wood being shipped to Europe under the label biomass and burned as a renewable source of energy.
  
  The only real question then is whether either Exxon or Chevron are in the mood to make such a huge buy when they can sit and repurchase their own stock and boost dividends as they watch oil prices climb higher. Source: Oilprice.com