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MABUX ARA LNG Bunker Index
Port LNG$/mton MGO LS$/mton Date
ARA
1 221.00
+371.00
1 060.00
-50.00
Mar 10
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Port	LNG$/mton	MGO LS$/mton	Date
ARA	1 221.00	+371.00	1 060.00	-50.00	Mar 10

MABUX Global Bunker Index

380HSFO$/mton		VLS FO$/mton		MGO LS$/mton		Date
753.67	-33.28	887.99	-24.83	1 269.14	-33.00	Mar 11

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MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI)

Correlation between market bunker prices (MBP) and MABUX Digital Bunker Price Benchmark (DBP)

All Indexes in $/mton	380HSFO			VLS FO			MGO LS			Date
All Indexes in $/mton	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	Date
Rotterdam	680	559	+121	703	621	+82	1 060	1 061	-1	Mar 11
Singapore	850	562	+288	1 050	672	+378	1 600	1 054	+546	Mar 11
Fujairah	850	520	+330	905	659	+246	1 355	1 117	+238	Mar 11
Houston	600	532	+68	705	620	+85	1 123	977	+146	Mar 11

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Latest News
- 2026-03-11
  Oil rises as Iran war rages on; IEA releases record 400 million barrels of oil
  Oil prices moved higher on Wednesday, erasing earlier losses, as the conflict in Iran showed no signs of stopping. The largest ever emergency oil reserve release by the International Energy Agency (IEA) to combat spiking prices did little to lift spirits.... Read more Oil prices moved higher on Wednesday, erasing earlier losses, as the conflict in Iran showed no signs of stopping. The largest ever emergency oil reserve release by the International Energy Agency (IEA) to combat spiking prices did little to lift spirits.
  Brent oil futures for May rose 4.9% to $92.14 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures added 4.8% to $87.42 a barrel by 12:52 ET (16:52 GMT).
  Get breaking oil market updates with InvestingPro
  The IEA said it would release a record 400 million barrels of oil from emergency reserves. The number was much larger than the 182 million barrels of oil released in 2022, during the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war.
  "The oil market challenges we are facing are unprecedented in scale, therefore I am very glad that IEA Member countries have responded with an emergency collective action of unprecedented size,” IEA executive director Fatih Birol said in a statement.
  “Oil markets are global so the response to major disruptions needs to be global too. Energy security is the founding mandate of the IEA, and I am pleased that IEA Members are showing strong solidarity in taking decisive action together,” Birol added.
  The IEA release is aimed at countering increased disruptions in oil markets caused by the near complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, a key shipping lane that facilitates about 20% of the world’s oil supply.
  
  A massive IEA release could help limit some supply disruptions stemming from the U.S.-Israel war with Iran. But an extended closure in the Strait of Hormuz stands to severely disrupt oil and gas supplies to several parts of Asia.
  "Good to see this coordinated move to release 400 million barrels of oil around the world. It will help. But it’s unlikely to cover the full loss of ~11 million to 16 million barrels of daily loss right now without the Strait of Hormuz operating," Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal, said on X.
  Reports showed Iran attacking ships passing through the strait this week, and that Tehran had also mined the channel. Iran has signaled that it will allow passage through the strait only after U.S. and Israeli attacks against the country are stopped. A CNN report on Wednesday said Iran claimed it was capable of launching high-speed underwater missiles.
  Reports earlier this week showed the Group of Seven countries were also planning oil reserve releases to help offset supply shortages. Additionally, the U.S. said it was temporarily lifting some sanctions on the sale of Russian oil to improve crude supplies.
  Markets parse conflicting signals on Iran war
  Oil prices rose to nearly $120 a barrel earlier this week, amid concerns over supply disruptions in the Middle East. But they swiftly trimmed these gains on reports of more reserve releases and other measures to help limit the supply impact, with crude prices remaining volatile.
  
  Investors were also grappling with conflicting signals on the Iran war. U.S. officials claimed in a now deleted social media post on Tuesday that the U.S. Navy had successfully escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz.
  But the post was denied by the White House, with other reports indicating that the U.S. Navy was reluctant to escort any ships in the region, given the high risk involved.
  Oil prices had swung wildly on the post, sliding as low as $81 before rebounding after its deletion.
  Earlier in the week, President Donald Trump said the war was close to ending. But Iran rejected his comments, while hostilities with the Islamic Republic showed few clear signs of easing.
  Separately on Wednesday, U.S. consumer price growth remained relatively tame in February, although the outlook for inflation has darkened after the oil market ructions sparked by the start of the joint U.S.-Israeli assault on Iran. Source: Reuters/Investing.com
- 2026-03-11
  Idemitsu and Consort Bunkers eye green methanol bunkering in Asia
  Japan’s Idemitsu Kosan plans to partner with Singapore-headquartered bunker supplier Consort Bunkers to supply green methanol in Singapore and other major ports in East Asia. Idemitsu will procure bio- and e-methanol for marine fuel supply, while Consort... Read more Japan’s Idemitsu Kosan plans to partner with Singapore-headquartered bunker supplier Consort Bunkers to supply green methanol in Singapore and other major ports in East Asia.
  
  Idemitsu will procure bio- and e-methanol for marine fuel supply, while Consort Bunkers will carry out physical deliveries in Singapore and other major East Asian ports, according to ongoing discussions.
  
  Consort Bunkers currently supplies conventional fuels and biofuel blends across Singapore, the UAE and China, covering major ports such as Fujairah, Khor Fakkan, Jebel Ali, Sharjah, Zhoushan and Ningbo.
  
  The company has also ordered at least 20 IMO Type II bunkering vessels capable of handling methanol and pure biofuels (B100), according to its website. The first of these newbuilds was delivered in August 2024.
  
  Neither company has yet provided details on the timeline of this initiative or the source of the green methanol.
  
  But the ambition to develop a green methanol bunkering supply chain reflects growing interest among Asian fuel suppliers in methanol as a low-emission marine fuel.
  
  Recent bunkering operations underscore this trend.
  
  Over the past week, Chimbusco Pan Nation and Sinopec (Hong Kong) Petroleum each carried out bio-methanol bunkering operations, while SIPG Energy completed a separate delivery in China.
  
  “In the shipping industry, under the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) goal of achieving net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from international shipping by around 2050, the adoption of fuels with lower GHG emissions for ships as alternatives to heavy oil is gaining momentum,” Idemitsu explained.
  
  Among these options, methanol is seen as a “promising” fuel because it can be handled using much of the existing bunkering infrastructure, the company added. Source: ENGIИE
- 2026-03-11
  Future fuel bunker vessels will initially need alternative revenue sources, says Deltamarin
  Bunker vessels for new and emerging fuels will not be able to rely solely on the marine fuel industry and will need to be ‘muti-useable for different purposes,’ says Esa Jokioinen, Director of Sales and Marketing at ship designer, Deltamarin. Speaking... Read more
- 2026-03-11
  Equinor to start supplying Wallenius Wilhelmsen with mass balanced bio-methanol in Belgium
  Equinor and Wallenius Wilhelmsen have entered into an agreement that will see the energy major supply the shipping company with bio-methanol in the ports of Antwerp and Zeebrugge for a two-year period. Supplies will commence in late 2026, the companies... Read more
- 2026-03-11
  Western Bulk and ZeroNorth partner on voyage optimisation
  Dry bulk shipping company Western Bulk, which has a commercially controlled fleet of around 120 vessels, is now using ZeroNorth’s Voyage Optimisation across its operations. Western Bulk operates an asset-light business model, with a large portion of... Read more
- 2026-03-11
  ExxonMobil Board recommends changing the company’s legal domicile to Texas
  Exxon Mobil Corporation’s (ExxonMobil) Board of Directors has unanimously recommended that shareholders approve changing the company’s legal domicile from New Jersey to Texas. The energy giant moved its operational headquarters to Texas in 1989 and... Read more
- 2026-03-11
  MOL acquires stake in V.Ships France
  Japanese shipowner Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (MOL) has acquired a 25% equity stake in V.Ships France (VSF) and appointed the Nantes-headquartered company to manage two newbuild dual-fuel LNG carriers. VSF already manages two of MOL’s LNG bunkering vessels,... Read more
- 2026-03-11
  MABUX: Bunker Weekly Outlook, Week 11, 2026.
  Global bunker fuel prices surged by approximately 30–35% over the past week, driven by the escalation of tensions between the United States and Iran and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil transit chokepoint. The disruption... Read more Global bunker fuel prices surged by approximately 30–35% over the past week, driven by the escalation of tensions between the United States and Iran and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil transit chokepoint. The disruption triggered a sharp rally in crude oil markets, pushing major benchmarks to multi-year highs and significantly increasing volatility across the global energy complex. Against this backdrop, bunker fuel indices recorded substantial gains across all segments. The MABUX Global 380 HSFO Index rose by USD 159.82, increasing from USD 575.57/MT last week to USD 735.39/MT. The VLSFO Index posted an even stronger advance, climbing by USD 199.41, from USD 670.31/MT to USD 869.72/MT. The MGO LS Index also experienced a sharp increase, rising by USD 186.34, from USD 1043.18/MT last week to USD 1229.52/MT. During the week, the index briefly exceeded the USD 1300.00/MT level, marking the highest value recorded since the start of MABUX data tracking in 2001. At the time of writing, the global bunker market has resumed its upward trajectory, reflecting persistent uncertainty in oil supply routes and continued pressure on energy prices
  
  The MABUX Global Scrubber Spread (SS) — the price differential between 380 HSFO and VLSFO — increased sharply during the week, rising by USD 39.59, from USD 94.74 last week to USD 134.33. The spread significantly exceeded the psychological threshold of USD 100.00 (SS Breakeven), indicating a notable shift in the relative economics of scrubber-equipped vessels. The weekly average of the global SS index also increased by USD 9.71. In Rotterdam, the SS Spread rose by USD 10.00, from USD 38.00 last week to USD 48.00, remaining close to the USD 50.00 level. At the same time, the weekly average SS Spread in the port decreased by USD 2.66, reflecting uneven price dynamics during the week. In Singapore, the 380 HSFO/VLSFO differential recorded the most significant increase, driven by an acute fuel shortage at the hub. The spread surged by USD 133.00, from USD 72.00 last week to USD 205.00, at one point briefly reaching USD 250.00. The weekly average SS Spread in Singapore rose by USD 73.33, highlighting the severity of supply disruptions in the region. Overall, the SS Spread ended the week sharply higher, primarily influenced by fuel supply disruptions and heightened volatility amid the escalating conflict in the Middle East. Given the current market conditions, the SS Spread may continue to strengthen in the coming week. More detailed information is available in the “Differentials” section on mabux.com.
  
  At the end of the week, the ECA Spread (ES) in Istanbul recorded a decline of USD 75.00, falling from USD 225.00 last week to USD 150.00. However, amid the high volatility in the bunker market, the ES temporarily surged to peak levels of around USD 400.00 during the week. At the same time, the weekly average value of the index increased by USD 123.33, reflecting sharp fluctuations in distillate prices. In Venice, the ECA Spread remained at USD 105.00. However, due to the lack of regular quotations caused by limited fuel availability, this level should be considered indicative rather than fully representative of actual market conditions. The Istanbul ES index reflects a sharp increase in marine gasoil prices in the regional bunker market, driven by escalating military tensions in the Middle East, which have significantly affected supply dynamics and price formation. Given the current market environment, we believe the ECA Spread may retain upward potential in the coming week.
  
  Military escalation in the Middle East and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have triggered a sharp reaction in European gas markets, with the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark rising significantly amid concerns over potential disruptions to global liquefied natural gas (LNG) flows. The shock has quickly transmitted into European power markets, where price movements have diverged depending on the degree of gas exposure within national electricity generation mixes. Beyond the immediate volatility, the market response once again highlights Europe’s structural vulnerability stemming from its continued reliance on imported fossil fuels exposed to geopolitical risk. In this context, the latest developments reinforce the strategic argument for accelerating the energy transition and further diversifying the continent’s energy supply structure.
  
  As of 10 March, the European underground gas storage level continued to decline, reaching 29.29% of total capacity, down 0.60 percentage points compared to the previous week. Overall, storage levels are now 32.17 percentage points lower than on 1 January 2026, when inventories stood at 61.46%. After a sharp increase at the beginning of last week, the European TTF gas benchmark recorded a moderate decline in week 11, falling by €6.897/MWh, from €54.290/MWh the previous week to €47.393/MWh. Despite this correction, TTF prices remained close to the €50/MWh level.
  
  LNG bunker prices at the port of Sines (Portugal) recorded a sharp increase this week, rising by USD 764.00 to USD 1,538/MT, compared with USD 774/MT the previous week. As a result, the price differential between LNG and conventional marine fuel shifted in favor of conventional fuel. The spread reached USD 188 in favor of MGO LS, whereas a week earlier LNG maintained an advantage of USD 165. On March 9, the price of MGO LS at the port of Sines was quoted at USD 1,350/MT. More detailed information is available in the “LNG Bunkering” section at mabux.com.
  
  Amid heightened volatility in the global bunker market and the ongoing escalation of tensions in the Middle East, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI) — which reflects the ratio between market bunker prices (MBP) and the MABUX digital bunker benchmark (DBP) — shifted into the overvaluation zone across the world’s major bunkering hubs, including Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston:
  
  • 380 HSFO segment: Overvaluation levels increased significantly across all ports: by 66 points in Rotterdam, 230 points in Singapore, 159 points in Fujairah, and 83 points in Houston. Notably, the MDI values in Singapore and Fujairah moved well above the USD 100.00 threshold, indicating a substantial divergence between market prices and the MABUX digital benchmark.
  
  • VLSFO segment: The average overvaluation premium also rose markedly: by 55 points in Rotterdam, 289 points in Singapore, 125 points in Fujairah, and 42 points in Houston. As in the HSFO segment, Singapore and Fujairah MDIs significantly exceeded the USD 100.00 level, reflecting strong upward pressure on market prices.
  
  • MGO LS segment: All ports moved into the overvalued zone, with the exception of Rotterdam, which remained the only undervalued port in this segment. However, the undervaluation discount in Rotterdam narrowed by 7 points. In contrast, the average overvaluation premium increased sharply in the other hubs: by 418 points in Singapore, 156 points in Fujairah, and 150 points in Houston.
  
  The rapid increase in bunker fuel overvaluations across all segments was primarily driven by an emerging supply shortage in regional bunker markets, amplified by geopolitical tensions and disruptions in energy supply chains. Given the current market dynamics, overvaluation is likely to continue dominating the global bunker market in the near term. More detailed information on the correlation between market bunker prices and the MABUX digital benchmark is available in the “Digital Bunker Prices” section on mabux.com.
  
  A group of 87 companies representing shipowners, ports, energy producers and technology suppliers has issued a joint statement urging the International Maritime Organization (IMO) to adopt the Net-Zero Framework (NZF) within the current year. The signatories describe the NZF as a balanced and pragmatic pathway for advancing the decarbonization of international shipping. Among the supporting organizations are shipowners CMB.Tech, DFDS, Klaveness Combination Carriers, Pacific Basin Shipping, Samskip, VEER Group and X-Press Feeders. The statement is also backed by several major port authorities, including the Ports of Antwerp-Bruges, Bremen and Esbjerg, as well as energy producers Moeve, Yara International and LONGi. The proposed NZF would introduce progressively tightening limits on the greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity of energy used by ships. Compliance would be enforced through a tiered system of penalties applied to vessels that fail to meet the established thresholds. The regulatory proposal was initially endorsed by IMO member states during the Marine Environment Protection Committee meeting (MEPC 83) in April last year, passing with a 63–16 vote. However, an extraordinary session scheduled for October to formally adopt the framework was postponed, delaying final approval for one year. The issue is expected to return to the agenda at the upcoming MEPC 84 meeting in late April. During this session, member states may submit proposals to amend elements of the Net-Zero Framework or provide additional clarification through implementation guidelines.
  
  According to Wood Mackenzie, amid the escalating conflict in the Middle East and the disruption of approximately 15 million barrels per day (bpd) of supply from the Persian Gulf, a reduction in global oil demand across several sectors may be required to rebalance the market. Under these conditions, crude oil prices could potentially rise to around USD 150 per barrel in the coming weeks. Such a scenario would act as a major upward driver for bunker fuel prices, further intensifying pressure on the global bunker market. Given the current geopolitical environment and tightening supply conditions, rising bunker fuel prices are likely to remain the dominant trend in the near term.
  
  Source: MABUX
- 2026-03-11
  Oil falls on report of IEA proposing biggest oil release ever
  Oil prices fell further on Wednesday, as reports of the International Energy Agency proposing the largest release of oil reserves in its history due to potential supply disruptions from the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran dragged on sentiment. Brent... Read more Oil prices fell further on Wednesday, as reports of the International Energy Agency proposing the largest release of oil reserves in its history due to potential supply disruptions from the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran dragged on sentiment.
  Brent futures traded down 88 cents, or 1%, at $86.92 a barrel by 0451 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded 35 cents lower, or 0.4%, at $83.1 a barrel.
  U.S. crude prices leapt 5% at the market open after both contracts plunged more than 11% on Tuesday, the steepest percentage drop since 2022, a day after Trump predicted a quick end to the war. On Monday, WTI surged to more than $119 a barrel, its highest since June 2022.
  The IEA’s proposed drawdown would exceed the 182 million barrels of oil that IEA member countries put onto the market in two releases in 2022 when Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the WSJ said, citing officials familiar with the matter.
  A stockpile release of that size would offset 12 days of the investment bank’s estimated 15.4 million barrel-per-day Gulf exports disruption, Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note.
  The U.S. and Israel pounded Iran on Tuesday with what the Pentagon and Iranians on the ground called the most intense airstrikes of the war.
  The U.S. military also "eliminated" 16 Iranian mine-laying vessels near the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, the U.S. Central Command said, as U.S. President Donald Trump warned any mines laid in the Strait by Iran must be removed immediately.
  
  Trump has repeatedly said the U.S. is prepared to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz when necessary. However, sources told Reuters the U.S. Navy has refused requests from the shipping industry for military escorts as the risk of attacks is too high for now.
  "Oil prices continued to normalise lower in a volatile fashion following Monday’s sharp spike," said UOB analysts in a client note, adding that markets are expected to keep their focus on developments in the Middle East as investors gauge how long energy prices may stay elevated.
  G7 officials have since gathered online to discuss a potential release of emergency oil stockpiles to soften the market blow.
  French President Emmanuel Macron will host a video call with other G7 country leaders on Wednesday to discuss the impact of the conflict in the Middle East on energy and measures to address the situation.
  Some analysts were sceptical about the IEA’s proposal.
  "No release has yet been formally announced, and there are doubts around the ultimate pace of any drawdowns from those reserves," said Philip Jones-Lux, senior analyst at Sparta Commodities, in a client note, adding that "the core issue is not the size of reserves, it is the achievable draw rates."
  SUPPLY CONCERNS REMAIN
  Abu Dhabi state oil giant ADNOC has shut its Ruwais refinery in response to a fire at a facility within the complex following a drone strike, according to a source, marking the latest energy infrastructure disruption due to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.
  
  Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, is seen boosting supplies via the Red Sea, although they are still far below the levels needed to compensate for the drop in flows from the Strait of Hormuz, shipping data showed.
  The kingdom is relying on the Red Sea port of Yanbu to help it boost exports to avert steep production cuts as its neighbours Iraq, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates have already reduced output.
  Energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie said the war is currently cutting Gulf oil and oil products supply to the market by some 15 million barrels per day, which could raise crude prices to $150 per barrel.
  "Even a quick resolution probably implies weeks of disruption for energy markets yet," Morgan Stanley said in a note.
  Reflecting higher demand, U.S. crude, gasoline and distillate stocks fell last week, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday. Source: Reuters/Investing.com
- 2026-03-11
  Middle East Conflict Threatens to Derail the Region’s Carbon Capture Boom
  Conflict-related disruptions in the Gulf are likely to delay major CCUS projects in Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, reducing expected regional capture capacity by 2030. Rising energy prices and supply-chain inflation could increase the levelized cost... Read more Conflict-related disruptions in the Gulf are likely to delay major CCUS projects in Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, reducing expected regional capture capacity by 2030.
  Rising energy prices and supply-chain inflation could increase the levelized cost of carbon capture and transport globally, pushing some projects above expected carbon price ranges.
  While conflict may slow near-term deployment, long-term drivers such as LNG decarbonization, blue hydrogen ambitions and industrial emissions policies still support future CCUS growth.
  image of an industrial plant with a lot of smoke emitted from the smoke stacks
  The escalation of conflict in the Middle East is a stress test for the region’s carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) projects and how bankable they remain when hydrocarbon operations are disrupted. Because most CCUS projects are linked to oil and gas value chains, the regional pipeline is being repriced as higher risk. Our base case of 20 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) of capture capacity by 2030 now looks unlikely; we expect delays as priorities shift and capital is reallocated, leaving the region tracking closer to our low case by 2035. On a global scale, a prolonged war could expose announced CCUS projects to inflation shocks: our sensitivity analysis indicates that a 50% increase in energy prices could lift the levelized cost of CO? capture and transport by about 30%, pushing some hard-to-abate projects above our 2030 European Union Emissions Trading System range and reinforcing the need to hedge war-driven cost spikes.
  
  Short- and medium-term impact on the Gulf
  
  Qatar provides the clearest near-term example. The 4.1 Mtpa capture project at Ras Laffan was positioned as a cornerstone of Qatar’s lower-carbon liquefied natural gas (LNG) strategy and an anchor for scaling to more than 10 Mtpa by 2030. In November 2025, prior to the current escalation, QatarEnergy awarded an engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract to Samsung C&T valued at about $1.4 billion. The project had a relatively low-risk profile, with sovereign backing, integrated gas infrastructure, and alignment with Qatar’s LNG expansion.
  
  However, the current geopolitical situation introduces a new layer of risk. Since operations at Ras Laffan have been interrupted due to facility damage, the implications for CCUS are direct. If LNG throughput is curtailed by damage or security disruptions, the CO? stream feeding the capture plant disappears. Construction and commissioning timelines can slip, and restart sequencing is likely to prioritize safety and LNG revenue over carbon optimization. Even if storage remains technically viable, an integrated LNG-linked system means CCUS output can collapse during prolonged curtailment.
  
  More broadly, much of the Middle East’s planned capacity is tied to Qatar’s LNG-linked expansion, Saudi Arabia’s CCS hub strategy and the UAE’s Abu Dhabi-centered plans. The region’s growth narrative has relied on scale and project concentration, but higher geopolitical risk is reshaping execution expectations for the 2030s. As a result, around 20 Mtpa of capacity by 2030 across Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE now appears unlikely; we see a downside closer to 12 Mtpa. Even projects already under construction may face commissioning delays as governments and national oil companies prioritize energy security and restoring processing capacity, with final investment decisions at risk of deferral.
  
  War-driven cost pressures on global CCUS
  
  Although the disruption is centered in the Middle East, its medium- to long-term impacts could be global. A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz would likely raise energy prices, strain supply chains, and inflate equipment costs, increasing CCUS project costs both regionally and worldwide. Higher energy prices would lift operating costs for energy-intensive capture systems, while inflation would push up equipment and EPC expenses. Contractors may prioritize higher-margin oil and gas projects, tightening supply for CCUS and driving up installed capex. Greater uncertainty could also increase the cost of capital. Combined with potential reductions in system availability, these factors would significantly raise levelized costs, as fixed capital must be recovered over lower volumes of captured and stored CO?.
  
  To assess global impacts, we conducted a sensitivity analysis of cost inflation in European CCUS, focusing on capture and transport. Despite available North Sea storage capacity, high costs and uncertain business cases constrain many emitters, while Europe’s still immature CO? transport network, particularly cross-border links, adds further risk. Near-term effects are therefore likely to concentrate among late-moving emitters and in transport, where higher material costs can delay final investment decisions and extend project timelines.
  
  Using a waste incineration facility as an example, the base levelized cost of CO? capture and transport (LCOC&T) is about $95 per tonne, above an EU ETS reference level of around $86 per tonne, implying a continued need for subsidies and policy support, as illustrated by the?Stockholm Exergi BECCS project. Under a ‘middle impact’ case, where energy prices rise about 50%, capture and transport costs increase around 30% to roughly $124 per tonne versus the base case. Under a ‘severe impact’ case, with about 65% to 75% energy price uplift alongside capital repricing and lower availability, LCOC&T rises to about $143 per tonne, exceeding our 2030 ETS forecast level even before storage costs are included.
  
  At $85-100 per tonne, state-backed or strategically critical projects may still proceed; above $120 per tonne, investment timing becomes increasingly uncertain as costs exceed our expected 2030 EU ETS levels. Higher power prices, capital repricing, and reduced availability therefore pose a structural risk to project economics under disruption scenarios, substantially weakening post-2030 scale-up prospects and limiting progress mainly to strategic or state-supported projects.
  
  Cost
  
  Post-conflict recovery
  
  Once hostilities ease, priorities in the Middle East will center on restoring hydrocarbon production, with CCUS restarting later and pre-2030 projects likely slipping into the mid-2030s or beyond. Higher oil prices may support EOR-linked capture, but momentum across broader industrial emitters could weaken. Over time, the drivers reassert themselves: European and Asian buyers’ scrutiny of lifecycle emissions, Gulf ambitions for blue hydrogen and lower-carbon gas, and the need for credible industrial decarbonization pathways. Together, these factors still support a 10-20 Mtpa regional capture potential, albeit on a slower and more risk-priced trajectory. For global developers, it is important to mitigate conflict-driven cost and supply shocks through inflation-indexed transport and storage tariffs, adjustable policy support (e.g., tax credits or contracts for difference), EPC cost-sharing mechanisms, commodity hedging, and long-term supply agreements, while locking in equipment prices early through strategic procurement to reduce vulnerability to supply-chain disruptions and price volatility. Source: Oilprice.com

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