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MABUX ARA LNG Bunker Index
Port LNG$/mton MGO LS$/mton Date
ARA
1 665.00
+102.00
1 430.00
+20.00
Oct 19
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Port	LNG$/mton	MGO LS$/mton	Date
ARA	1 665.00	+102.00	1 430.00	+20.00	Oct 19

MABUX Global Bunker Index

380HSFO$/mton		VLS FO$/mton		MGO LS$/mton		Date
749.43	+2.14	875.04	+7.91	1 536.77	+10.32	Oct 20

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MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI)

Correlation between market bunker prices (MBP) and MABUX Digital Bunker Price Benchmark (DBP)

All Indexes in $/mton	380HSFO			VLS FO			MGO LS			Date
All Indexes in $/mton	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	Date
Rotterdam	675	751	-76	754	852	-98	1 410	1 606	-196	Oct 20
Singapore	900	799	+101	930	980	-50	1 300	1 599	-299	Oct 20
Fujairah	730	743	-13	970	924	+46	1 712	1 662	+50	Oct 20
Houston	610	741	-131	783	889	-106	1 415	1 558	-143	Oct 20

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Latest News
- 2026-10-21
  Oil rises on Middle East supply worries
  Oil prices edged higher on Wednesday on Middle East supply concerns, with traders wary of Red Sea shipping risks and threats to oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia. Which sectors are most sensitive to Red Sea shipping risks? Brent crude futures rose... Read more Oil prices edged higher on Wednesday on Middle East supply concerns, with traders wary of Red Sea shipping risks and threats to oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia.
  
  Which sectors are most sensitive to Red Sea shipping risks?
  Brent crude futures rose 85 cents, or 0.78%, to $109.64 per barrel as of 0022 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 76 cents, or 0.78%, to $98.58 per barrel.
  
  A supertanker caught fire after striking a sea mine south of the Strait of Hormuz while "violating" Iranian regulations, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Navy said on Tuesday, according to Iranian media. There were at least 18 vessel attacks reported over two weeks, shiptracker Kpler said in a note on Monday.
  
  "Attacks on tankers have expanded beyond the Strait of Hormuz," LSEG analysts said in a note. "Iran has been targeting vessels as far south as the Gulf of Oman, threatening loadings outside of the Arab Gulf, as well as the ship-to-ship transfers that have helped to support Middle East loadings as the conflict has dragged on."
  
  The Houthis on Monday claimed responsibility for attacks on a Saudi Aramco site in Yanbu, the Shaybah oilfield and Saudi Arabia’s Riyadh and Abha airports.
  
  How have Saudi energy stocks reacted to these attacks?
  The death toll from a Houthi attack on Yemeni government forces on Monday rose to 73 as fighting intensified.
  
  Prices had fallen in the previous trading session after Iran’s president discussed mediation efforts in a meeting with Pakistan’s army chief in Tehran.
  
  On Tuesday, Brent crude futures settled down 76 cents, or 0.69%, at $108.79, after touching a five-month high of $111.99. The November contract for US West Texas Intermediate crude, which expired on Tuesday, settled down $1.87, or 1.8%, at $101.79.
  
  Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said in a television interview aired on Tuesday that Iran has not received a response from Saudi Arabia or Yemen’s Houthis to its offer to help broker peace talks.
  
  In the US, two Energy Department officials said on Tuesday they were working with refiners around the world to boost fuel output as a diesel shortage has raised prices.
  
  US crude oil stockpiles were expected to have fallen last week along with product inventories, an extended Reuters poll showed on Tuesday. Eight analysts polled by Reuters estimated, on average, that crude inventories fell by about 800,000 barrels in the week ended October 16.
  
  Source: Reuters/Investing.com
- 2026-10-21
  Europe’s Power Demand Returns to Growth
  Despite weakening industrial activity and high energy costs, European electricity demand is bucking years of flailing power consumption. Rising electrification rates and the data center boom are the key drivers of this new trend in Europe’s power demand,... Read more Despite weakening industrial activity and high energy costs, European electricity demand is bucking years of flailing power consumption.
  
  Rising electrification rates and the data center boom are the key drivers of this new trend in Europe’s power demand, which is set to gather momentum in the coming years amid the EU’s energy transition and the global AI boom.
  
  Europe’s electricity demand growth is nowhere near the pace seen in the United States and China in recent years, but it’s a marked shift nevertheless, after years of declining or stagnant power consumption.
  
  The Age of Electricity, as the International Energy Agency (IEA) put it in its 2026 Electricity report, is gathering pace even in Europe. The renewed growth in power demand is changing long-term assumptions and forecasts about power markets, and posing new challenges for policymakers and grid operators.
  
  Return to Growth
  
  Electricity demand in the European Union inched up by 0.5% in 2025, below the 2024 increase of 1.9%, according to data by clean energy think tank Ember.
  
  Then, over the past year, top European economies, including Germany, Italy, and Spain, saw power demand growth in most months, according to data by BloombergNEF. Portugal and the Nordic countries are also seeing steep growth in electricity consumption this year, with all figures adjusted for weather impacts, per BNEF’s analysis.
  Related: Copper Needs $332 Billion in New Mines to Avoid Deficit, BloombergNEF Says
  
  The weather impacts, especially the several extreme heat waves in Europe this past summer, are prompting a growing number of households to consider air conditioning. Last year, 23% of European households had AC at home, according to data by the International Energy Agency (IEA).
  
  Electrification for heating is also gathering momentum now amid soaring natural gas prices in the wake of the war in Iran.
  
  Not to mention record electric vehicle (EV) sales amid record-high fuel prices and a record number of newly available affordable models.
  
  In a landmark achievement, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) outsold gasoline-fueled cars for the first time over a full quarter in the second quarter of 2026, Transport & Environment, a European advocacy group for clean transport and energy, said in a report earlier this month.
  
  Home-charged electric cars cost 50% less to run than gasoline and diesel cars as of the middle of September 2026, according to Transport & Environment’s analysis.
  
  Official automotive figures also confirmed the findings—the fuel crisis is shifting buyer preferences to EVs.
  
  BEV sales in Europe, including the UK, Switzerland, and Norway, surged by 52.2% in August from a year earlier as record-high gasoline and diesel prices prompted drivers to flock to battery and hybrid vehicles, according to data by the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association, ACEA.
  
  The growth in Europe’s power demand is not a short-term trend, analysts say. It’s the beginning of a shift toward rising demand – even at lower rates than in the U.S. – due to the electrification drive and the data center boom.
  
  “A growing share of energy use is through electricity, and even if energy demand goes down, electricity demand is going up,” Per Lekander, CEO of London-based hedge fund Clean Energy Transition, told Bloomberg.
  
  “It’s unstoppable and it’s going to go on for decades.”
  
  Europe’s data center capacity is also growing and the UK and Germany are set to remain the largest markets through 2035, with 7.7 gigawatts (GW) and 5.1 GW, respectively, BNEF said in an outlook on Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) last month.
  
  Spain and Finland will jump up the rankings as currently early-stage projects start to come online toward the end of the decade, while ongoing constraints in Ireland and the Netherlands will see them both drop out of the top five largest markets, according to BNEF.
  
  In total, the power capacity of European data centers is expected to double to top 30 GW by 2032, and further grow to 39 GW by 2035, BNEF reckons.
  
  Grid Constraints
  
  As power demand grows, the electricity supply is increasingly leaning into renewable energy as Europe and the UK stick with emission-reduction goals to become carbon-neutral by 2050. In the EU, solar power generation overtook coal generation in 2024. Last year, wind and solar combined exceeded fossil fuels in power generation for the first time, after drawing level in 2024, according to Ember’s data.
  
  This rise of renewable energy is placing a strain on Europe’s grids, which need a lot of investment to be able to incorporate soaring solar and wind output. That’s a pressing problem for the EU and the UK, with trillions of dollars needed to make the grids of the past suitable for future power generation and demand.
  
  At the end of last year, the European Commission unveiled the European Grids Package to fast-track grid upgrades and renewable project permits, and boost cross-border cooperation.
  
  The European Commission has estimated that $2.25 trillion (2 trillion euros) to $2.6 trillion (2.3 trillion euros) is required to meet grid needs until 2050, a review of the EU’s electricity grids by the European Court of Auditors showed last year.
  
  By the end of the decade, the EU would need $656 billion (584 billion euros) in investments as 40% of its distribution grids are over 40 years old, and cross-border transmission capacity is set to double by 2030, the Commission says. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-10-21
  MABUX: Global bunker market to show sideways changes on Oct. 21 amid Middle East fuel supply concerns.
  The MABUX World Bunker Index — a composite benchmark reflecting daily prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO, and MGO – registered moderate gains across all fuel segments on Oct. 20: 380 HSFO: USD/MT: 749.43 (+2.14) VLSFO: USD/MT: 875.04 (+7.91) MGO: USD/MT:... Read more The MABUX World Bunker Index — a composite benchmark reflecting daily prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO, and MGO – registered moderate gains across all fuel segments on Oct. 20:
  
  380 HSFO: USD/MT: 749.43 (+2.14)
  VLSFO: USD/MT: 875.04 (+7.91)
  MGO: USD/MT: 1 536.77 (+10.32)
  
  As of Oct. 20, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI), which monitors the spread between Market Bunker Prices (MBP) and the MABUX Digital Bunker Benchmark (DBP), indicated the following trends across the four major global bunkering hubs—Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston:
  
  • HSFO segment: Singapore remained the only overvalued port, with its MDI premium narrowing by $13. The other three hubs continued to be undervalued. Rotterdam's MDI discount narrowed by $9, while discounts widened by $1 in Fujairah and $23 in Houston. Singapore's MDI premium and Houston's MDI discount both remained above the $100 mark.
  
  • VLSFO segment: Fujairah remained the only overvalued hub, with its MDI premium widening by $5. The other three ports continued to trade below the benchmark. Rotterdam's MDI discount narrowed by $8, dropping below the $100 mark, while discounts widened by $12 in Singapore and $15 in Houston. Houston's MDI discount remained above $100.
  
  • MGO LS segment: Fujairah continued to be the only overvalued hub, although its MDI premium narrowed by $19. The remaining three ports stayed undervalued, with MDI discounts widening by $11 in Rotterdam, $6 in Singapore, and $9 in Houston. Discounts across all three undervalued hubs remained above the $100 mark.
  
  MABUX forecasts sideways changes in the global bunker market on Oct. 21, despite ongoing concerns over fuel supply disruptions in the Middle East:
  380 HSFO: plus-minus 3-7 USD/MT, VLSFO: plus-minus 4-8 USD/MT, MGO LS: plus-minus 5–15 USD/MT.
  Source: MABUX
- 2026-10-21
  US and China Battle for Influence in Central Asia as Rubio Seals $12 Billion in
  Uzbekistan in recent days has served as an octagon of competition between the United States and China over economic influence in Central Asia. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio led an almost 300-strong American business delegation to the Uzbek city... Read more Uzbekistan in recent days has served as an octagon of competition between the United States and China over economic influence in Central Asia.
  
  US Secretary of State Marco Rubio led an almost 300-strong American business delegation to the Uzbek city of Samarkand for a business forum, where on October 19, he held talks with the foreign ministers from all five Central Asian states.
  
  Uzbek media, citing the Uzbek Ministry of Investment, Industry and Trade, reported that the trip yielded at least 54 business deals worth $12 billion, covering such areas as industry, transport and energy infrastructure, critical minerals, the financial sector, digital technologies, agriculture, healthcare, and education.
  
  A joint statement by the participating foreign ministers outlined intentions to strengthen US-Central Asian ties in a variety of areas. Curiously, the document did not specifically reference artificial intelligence or critical minerals, two priority areas for the Trump administration. It did, however, “envision expanded opportunities for mineral extraction.”
  
  The United States pledged to help Central Asia fulfill “its export potential by developing innovative ways to increase value-added products within the region and [create] pathways to introduce these products to the international market,” the statement noted. “By leveraging secure and trusted technology, American technological excellence, and the growing technology sectors of Central Asia, we seek to foster a region where e-commerce flourishes, innovative solutions abound, and talented entrepreneurs thrive.”
  
  President Shavkat Mirziyoyev on October 19 held meet-and-greets with several US executives, including Rafael Santana, the CEO of locomotive-maker Wabtec, and Jenny Johnson, CEO of the asset management firm Franklin Templeton.
  
  One of the agreements announced in Samarkand involves a Wabtec initiative to localize production of railway equipment. Meanwhile, Franklin Templeton, along with other finance firms including Oppenheimer & Co., Citigroup and BlackRock, will help Uzbek companies widen access to global capital markets.
  
  The deals mark a significant step forward for US-Central Asian trade relations. Prior to the Samarkand meetings, there had been lots of hopeful talk about improving trade ties since President Trump’s return to office in January 2025. But the talk seemed to be out-pacing actual US dealmaking – at least until now.
  
  Just a day before Rubio’s arrival in Uzbekistan, Mirziyoyev met in Tashkent with Li Qiang, China’s prime minister. Mirziyoyev’s statement touted Tashkent’s close relationship with Beijing.
  
  “Both sides welcomed the active dialogue and cooperation at the parliamentary, governmental, ministerial, regional and business levels,” Mirziyoyev stated. He went on to emphasize the steady growth of bilateral trade. “The portfolio of projects backed by firm agreements has reached nearly $60 billion, and more than 6,000 joint ventures have been established so far,” he added.
  
  China’s volume of trade with Central Asian states, given the advantage of geographic proximity, dwarfs that of the United States. The US and Uzbekistan exchanged an estimated $1.7 billion in goods and services in 2025. Uzbek-Chinese trade turnover reached almost $18 billion the same year, according to Uzbek government data.
  
  The timing of Li’s visit could be seen as an attempt to upstage Rubio’s arrival, geopolitical gamesmanship akin to a surprise US diplomatic visit to Bishkek by Sergio Gor, Trump’s Special Envoy for South and Central Asia, and retiring Montana Sen. Steve Daines in early September that disrupted a Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit. The headline of a South China Morning Post account of Li’s trip read: “China moves to cement ties with Uzbekistan amid tussle with US for Central Asian influence.”
  
  In Samarkand, Rubio indicated that the United States is playing catch-up to China. “We have products, we have companies. … And we just want fair competition and an opportunity,” he said during his press briefing. “There’s no part of the world in which we feel like America and American business should not be – have a fair shot to compete, and that’s what we seek to do.”
  
  Over the summer, the State Department floated a trial balloon that, in effect, sought to force Central Asian states to make a clear choice between cooperating with the United States or China on AI development. Central Asian leaders flatly rejected the idea.
  
  Rubio in Samarkand stressed that the United States was not striving to force Central Asian states to choose between Washington and Beijing. He maintained his visit was “not about coming here to say stop talking to somebody else or stop working with some other country.” Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-10-21
  API: Crude, Product Inventories Continue to Draw
  The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that crude oil inventories in the United States fell by 4.93 million barrels in the week ending October 16. In the week prior, US crude oil inventories fell by a staggering 11.12 million barrels. Commercial... Read more The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that crude oil inventories in the United States fell by 4.93 million barrels in the week ending October 16. In the week prior, US crude oil inventories fell by a staggering 11.12 million barrels.
  
  Commercial crude oil inventories excluding the SPR have lost more than 56 million barrels over the last 27 weeks, but US crude inventories are still only 5 million barrels below where they were at the beginning of the year, according to API data, kept in check in part thanks to draws from the SPR.
  
  For the week ending October 16, 300,000 barrels of crude oil left the SPR to aid commercial inventories, dragging the total inventory held in the SPR down to 282.7 million barrels—a level that is still 431 million barrels shy of maximum capacity.
  
  The generally accepted operational minimum for oil in the SPR is between 250-300 million barrels, below which the reserve may find it difficult to pump and process oil efficiently.
  
  US production for the week ending Oct 9 slipped to 13.679 million bpd, down from 13.979 in the week prior, and up 43,000 bpd from a year earlier.
  
  At 4:21 pm ET on Wednesday, Brent crude was trading down on the day at $108.96 (-0.54%). Brent is trading up $3 per barrel from this time last week.
  
  WTI was also trading down on the day by $2.75 per barrel (-2.63%) at $101.79, which is up roughly $6 per barrel since this time last week.
  
  Gasoline inventories fell by 2 million during the week ending October 14. In the week prior, gasoline inventories rose by 1.1 million barrels. In the week prior, gasoline inventories were 4% below the five-year average for this time of year, according to the latest EIA data.
  
  Distillate inventories fell 2.6 million barrels on top of the 1.5 million barrels lost in the week prior. Distillate inventories were already 12% below the five-year average heading into this reporting period, the latest EIA data shows.
  
  Cushing inventory—the inventory kept at the delivery hub for the WTI Crude futures contract—gained 900,000 barrels after gaining 1.823 million barrels in the previous week. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-10-21
  Norway's Gas Production Plunges 12.6% as Europe Heads into Winter
  Norway’s oil and gas production declined sharply in September, with natural gas output falling 12.6% from August, according to preliminary figures released Tuesday by the Norwegian Offshore Directorate (NOD). Total petroleum production averaged approximately... Read more Norway’s oil and gas production declined sharply in September, with natural gas output falling 12.6% from August, according to preliminary figures released Tuesday by the Norwegian Offshore Directorate (NOD).
  
  Total petroleum production averaged approximately 3.77 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd), down 10.4% month-on-month and 4% below the directorate’s forecast.
  
  The decline comes at a sensitive time for European energy markets, with the winter heating season approaching and Norway remaining the continent’s largest supplier of pipeline natural gas.
  
  However, the September slowdown contrasts with a stronger underlying trend: Norwegian petroleum production during the first nine months of 2026 remained 2.9% above the corresponding period last year.
  
  Gas Output Takes the Biggest Hit
  
  Norwegian natural gas production averaged 298.4 million standard cubic meters per day in September, down from approximately 341.6 million cubic meters per day in August.
  
  The decline of 43.2 million cubic meters per day was particularly significant because production also fell 6.7% below the directorate’s forecast of 319.9 million cubic meters per day.
  
  Total gas sales reached approximately 9 billion cubic meters during September, compared with 10.6 billion cubic meters in August.
  
  The weaker performance coincided with the final stages of Norway’s annual offshore maintenance season.
  
  In late August, pipeline operator Gassco warned that planned maintenance could temporarily reduce Norway’s natural gas export capacity by approximately 20% during parts of the period leading up to the end of September.
  
  According to Gassco transparency data reported by Reuters, the median aggregate capacity reduction across Norwegian gas fields and processing facilities was expected to reach approximately 71 million cubic meters per day, equivalent to roughly one-fifth of typical daily deliveries.
  
  The maintenance program was designed to prepare Norway’s offshore production and gas transportation infrastructure for the European winter, when demand typically increases.
  
  However, the Norwegian Offshore Directorate’s September figures do not establish precisely how much of the production decline was attributable to scheduled maintenance rather than other operational factors.
  
  Additional supply constraints emerged at the Shell-operated Ormen Lange field, where an extended outage was expected to reduce gas deliveries by approximately 7.9 million cubic meters per day until February 1, 2027.
  
  Despite these challenges, Norwegian gas production remained 5.1% higher than in September 2025, suggesting that the sharp monthly decline does not necessarily indicate a sustained deterioration in the country’s production capacity.
  
  Oil Production Falls by 145,000 Barrels Per Day
  
  Crude oil production also weakened considerably during September.
  
  Norway produced an average of 1.73 million barrels per day (bpd), representing a decline of approximately 145,000 bpd, or 7.7%, compared with August.
  
  Production was also 8.4% lower than in September 2025.
  
  However, unlike natural gas, crude oil output remained marginally above the directorate’s monthly forecast, exceeding expectations by 0.7%.
  
  Total liquids production, including crude oil, natural gas liquids and condensate, averaged approximately 1.90 million bpd, down 168,000 bpd from August.
  
  The distinction between oil and gas is important.
  
  While both commodities experienced significant monthly declines, natural gas accounted for the more pronounced deviation from official expectations.
  
  Norway’s Production Remains Ahead of 2025
  
  Despite September’s weaker performance, Norway’s overall petroleum production continues to exceed last year’s levels.
  
  During the first nine months of 2026, cumulative production reached approximately 181.7 million standard cubic meters of oil equivalent, an increase of 5.1 million cubic meters, or 2.9%, compared with the same period in 2025.
  
  Crude oil production also exceeded the directorate’s cumulative forecast by 4.1%.
  
  The figures illustrate why individual monthly production declines should be viewed in a broader context.
  
  Norwegian offshore production is influenced by scheduled maintenance, operational interruptions, reservoir performance and the timing of new production capacity.
  
  September’s decline therefore does not, by itself, signal a structural downturn.
  
  Instead, the stronger year-to-date performance indicates that Norway continues to maintain substantial production capacity despite the operational challenges associated with its mature offshore industry.
  
  Europe’s Dependence on Norwegian Gas
  
  Norway’s production performance carries implications far beyond the Norwegian Continental Shelf.
  
  Since the sharp reduction in Russian pipeline gas deliveries following the invasion of Ukraine, Norway has become Europe’s most important pipeline gas supplier, accounting for roughly 30% of combined European Union and British gas demand.
  
  That dependence makes the reliability of Norwegian offshore production and transportation infrastructure increasingly important.
  
  The September decline demonstrates how planned maintenance and operational disruptions can temporarily restrict supplies from a country that has become central to European energy security.
  
  However, there are also reasons to distinguish temporary production constraints from longer-term supply risks.
  
  On October 1, Gassco confirmed that its major scheduled maintenance activities had been completed, leaving Norway’s gas transportation system well positioned to meet European demand during the winter heating season.
  
  The completion of the maintenance program removes an important temporary constraint, although the extended outage at Ormen Lange illustrates how individual field disruptions can continue to affect supply even after planned maintenance has ended.
  
  For European gas markets, this distinction matters.
  
  Norway’s ability to deliver large volumes of natural gas depends not only on pipeline capacity but also on the availability and performance of the offshore fields feeding the transportation network.
  
  The Bigger Challenge: Sustaining Production
  
  While September’s production decline may prove temporary, Norway faces a more fundamental challenge over the coming years.
  
  Much of the Norwegian Continental Shelf consists of mature producing fields, where natural reservoir decline must increasingly be offset through additional drilling, improved recovery and new developments.
  
  Maintaining production therefore requires continued investment, even when existing infrastructure allows smaller discoveries to be developed at relatively competitive costs.
  
  The challenge is particularly relevant for Europe, where Norwegian gas has become an essential component of regional energy security.
  
  Temporary disruptions can tighten gas balances during periods of high demand, while declining production capacity over time could increase dependence on alternative suppliers and imported liquefied natural gas.
  
  Norway’s September figures capture both sides of that equation.
  
  The country experienced a substantial monthly production setback, particularly in natural gas, yet cumulative petroleum output remains ahead of last year.
  
  With major maintenance activities completed, production performance during the final quarter of 2026 will provide a clearer indication of how much of September’s decline was temporary.
  
  For Europe’s energy markets, the larger question is not simply whether Norwegian production rebounds after maintenance, but whether continued investment can sustain the country’s role as a cornerstone of European energy security. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-10-21
  EU Stands Firm Against Arctic Oil and Gas Drilling Despite Energy Crisis
  The European Union reaffirmed its opposition to Arctic oil and gas development on Tuesday, even as the bloc prepares for another expensive winter with depleted gas storage and prices approaching levels last seen during the 2022 energy crisis. The European... Read more The European Union reaffirmed its opposition to Arctic oil and gas development on Tuesday, even as the bloc prepares for another expensive winter with depleted gas storage and prices approaching levels last seen during the 2022 energy crisis.
  
  The European Commission's new Arctic strategy calls for keeping oil, coal, and gas reserves in the ground, including in Arctic regions, and preventing hydrocarbon developments that threaten the Arctic ecosystem.
  
  Brussels did make one concession. The new strategy drops a 2021 pledge to pursue an international legal ban on new Arctic drilling and refuse purchases from those developments. An EU official acknowledged that convincing other countries to cooperate has become increasingly difficult.
  
  Europe's current energy situation makes the timing particularly interesting.
  
  EU gas storage stood at just 74% of capacity on October 14, compared with a five-year average of roughly 86%. Benchmark Dutch TTF gas prices reached €86.03 per megawatt-hour last week, near their highest since December 2022.
  
  Middle Eastern LNG flows remain approximately 80% below year-earlier levels, with disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz continuing to constrain supplies. Europe has already paid an estimated additional €100 billion for oil and gas this year.
  
  Norway, Europe's largest gas supplier, has urged Brussels to reconsider its Arctic drilling opposition. Norwegian production is expected to decline during the 2030s unless companies including Equinor make new discoveries beyond existing mature fields.
  
  New Arctic developments would not solve Europe's immediate winter supply problems. Exploration, development, and infrastructure construction take years. But Norway's concern extends well beyond this heating season.
  
  Europe's gas supply outlook has already deteriorated enough for EU energy commissioner Dan Jorgensen to propose delaying methane emissions requirements on imported energy to ease pressure on the market.
  
  Brussels is apparently willing to reconsider the timing of its emissions rules, but not its opposition to new Arctic oil and gas development.
  
  Norway's existing fields, meanwhile, will continue aging whether Brussels approves of new Arctic drilling or not. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-10-21
  Russia’s Oil Export Revenue Slides as Production Declines
  Russia’s seaborne crude exports fell to their lowest four-week average in a month after shipments from the Baltic port of Primorsk stopped for several days, according to tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. Exports averaged 3.59 million barrels... Read more Russia’s seaborne crude exports fell to their lowest four-week average in a month after shipments from the Baltic port of Primorsk stopped for several days, according to tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.
  
  Exports averaged 3.59 million barrels per day in the four weeks through October 18, down 110,000 bpd from the previous period.
  
  Weekly shipments fell 390,000 bpd to 3.13 million bpd, the lowest since March. Just 31 tankers loaded 21.91 million barrels, compared with 34 vessels carrying 24.63 million barrels the previous week.
  
  Primorsk appeared to suspend loading for about three days, with satellite images showing empty berths and tanker-tracking data showing no arrivals or departures. Maintenance at the port or its supplying pipeline may have been responsible. Shipments resumed toward the end of the week.
  
  Russia’s crude production has also been declining. OPEC secondary-source estimates put September output at 8.64 million bpd, its lowest since mid-2020 and the tenth consecutive monthly decline.
  
  Ukrainian drone attacks continue to disrupt Russian refining operations. A strike on the Ryazan refinery last Thursday knocked out one of its four primary processing units. Refinery outages can temporarily increase crude available for export, although falling production limits that potential.
  
  Moscow has also made Russian energy data harder to obtain. A September 28 decree restricted public disclosure of refinery production, export contracts, shipping routes, and tanker coordinates.
  
  Russia began commercial exports from Rosneft’s Vostok Arctic project in September, loading approximately 250,000 metric tons aboard three ice-class tankers. Initial exports are expected to average 150,000 bpd this year, well below the project's original 2 million bpd ambition.
  
  Russia’s declining shipments are also cutting export revenue. The weekly value of seaborne crude exports fell by approximately $380 million to $2.33 billion, the lowest in six weeks.
  
  China and India remain Russia’s largest customers, although shipments toward Asian buyers declined to 3.43 million bpd on a four-week average basis, down from 3.54 million bpd. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-10-21
  Saudi Arabia and Asia Locked In Dispute Over 2027 Term Oil Deals
  Asian refiners and Middle Eastern producers are currently negotiating the term supplies of crude oil for 2027, as usual. The unusual part is that the Iran war has crippled fixed-term supplies this year, and Middle Eastern exporters have resorted to increased... Read more Asian refiners and Middle Eastern producers are currently negotiating the term supplies of crude oil for 2027, as usual. The unusual part is that the Iran war has crippled fixed-term supplies this year, and Middle Eastern exporters have resorted to increased spot sales to deliver crude oil to their most important export destination.
  
  With days left to conclude negotiations on the 2027 term sales under fixed volumes, refiners in Asia and Saudi Arabia are in disagreement over whether this year’s spot sales should be counted into the 2026 term supplies, unnamed traders involved in the discussions told Bloomberg on Tuesday.
  
  Refiners insist that spot sale volumes they have bought this year should be treated as fixed term sales because the seller simply could not provide the contractual cargoes. But Saudi Arabia is reportedly insisting that refiners should commit to buying higher volumes of its crude oil in 2027 as the buyers haven’t met their contractual obligations for purchasing term supply this year.
  
  The refiners disagree with the Saudi interpretation, and the dispute appears to have spilled onto the spot market, slowing down Asian purchases of November-loading crude from Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern producers, according to Bloomberg’s sources.
  
  Asian refiners in general are not willing to commit to higher term supply commitments next year, considering the ongoing conflict and the still high uncertainty about when and how all this Strait of Hormuz mess would end.
  
  The contract negotiations need to conclude very soon, as Asian refiners typically order in November 2026 spot cargoes that would load in January 2027. If they don’t know how much term supply they will take in January, the visibility on spot purchases would be very little, leaving the Middle Eastern spot market difficult to assess and predict, once again.
  
  Abu Dhabi’s ADNOC, however, has allowed some Asian refiners to count their spot supply toward the contractual term supplies, per Bloomberg’s sources, although the buyers and sellers haven’t decided yet if the arrangement would continue into next year. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-10-21
  Shipping Crisis Forces Asian Crude Buyers to Use Smaller Tankers
  Record-high freight costs are changing the behavior of Asian buyers who are increasingly using smaller tankers and ships under long-term charter deals to pick crude oil supply, refining and trading sources tell Reuters. The costs of shipping crude... Read more Record-high freight costs are changing the behavior of Asian buyers who are increasingly using smaller tankers and ships under long-term charter deals to pick crude oil supply, refining and trading sources tell Reuters.
  
  The costs of shipping crude oil have soared to record highs in recent weeks as the Iran war reshuffled trade routes and patterns and tied up more supertankers in inefficient and lengthy voyages and on a shuttle service to move crude through the Strait of Hormuz.
  
  The increased oil flows from the Strait of Hormuz, mostly thanks to ship-to-ship (STS) transfers in the Gulf of Oman, are tying up supertankers for weeks waiting for the transfers outside the Strait, limiting the availability of very large crude carriers (VLCCs) for the other global key oil trade routes, such as the U.S. Gulf Coast to Asia.
  
  As a result, tanker costs are spiking and increasingly influencing the buying and sourcing decisions of refiners in both Asia and Europe.
  
  In Asia, for example, refiners have to pay record-high freight costs to receive a cargo of crude oil from the U.S. Gulf Coast. This has effectively shut the U.S. Gulf Coast to Asia arbitrage. Asian buyers are turning to more Middle East crude, but they are buying on a delivered basis to reduce costs.
  
  In Europe, refiners are opting for nearby volumes within the region, due to the spike in tanker rates.
  
  The higher demand for European and Middle Eastern crude is pushing up the premiums on some grades. The Dated Brent benchmark was at a record $20 per barrel premium to Brent last week. Norway’s medium sour crude Johan Sverdrup has hit a record $24 per barrel premium to Brent, according to Wood Mackenzie data.
  
  African and U.S. crudes, on the other hand, have seen discounts widening due to the high freight costs to ship these volumes on long voyages to Asia. West African crude prices have slumped to record-low discounts, with some grades down to minus $20 per barrel to offset the high shipping costs, London-based traders told Reuters. Source: Oilprice.com

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