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MABUX ARA LNG Bunker Index
Port LNG$/mton MGO LS$/mton Date
ARA
850.00
0.00
1 160.00
-100.00
Mar 9
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Port	LNG$/mton	MGO LS$/mton	Date
ARA	850.00	0.00	1 160.00	-100.00	Mar 9

MABUX Global Bunker Index

380HSFO$/mton		VLS FO$/mton		MGO LS$/mton		Date
785.14	-44.37	886.60	-47.45	1 267.87	-102.53	Mar 10

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MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI)

Correlation between market bunker prices (MBP) and MABUX Digital Bunker Price Benchmark (DBP)

All Indexes in $/mton	380HSFO			VLS FO			MGO LS			Date
All Indexes in $/mton	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	Date
Rotterdam	695	631	+64	735	700	+35	1 160	1 184	-24	Mar 10
Singapore	1 080	644	+436	1 300	767	+533	1 680	1 177	+503	Mar 10
Fujairah	820	596	+224	885	746	+139	1 400	1 240	+160	Mar 10
Houston	730	604	+126	775	709	+66	1 258	1 051	+207	Mar 10

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Latest News
- 2026-03-10
  Oil falls as Trump predicts Middle East de-escalation
  Oil prices fell on Tuesday after hitting an over three-year high in the prior session as U.S. President Donald Trump predicted the war in the Middle East could end soon, easing concerns about prolonged disruptions to global oil supplies. Brent futures... Read more Oil prices fell on Tuesday after hitting an over three-year high in the prior session as U.S. President Donald Trump predicted the war in the Middle East could end soon, easing concerns about prolonged disruptions to global oil supplies.
  Brent futures fell $4.17, or 4.2%, to $94.79 a barrel at 0345 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was down $3.81, or 4%, to $90.96 a barrel. Both the contracts fell as much as 11% earlier before paring some losses.
  Oil surged past $100 a barrel on Monday to hit their highest since mid-2022, as supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and other producers during the expanding U.S.-Israeli war with Iran stoked fears of major disruptions to global supplies.
  Prices later retreated after Russian President Vladimir Putin held a call with Trump and shared proposals aimed at a quick settlement to the Iran war, according to a Kremlin aide, easing concerns about a prolonged supply disruption.
  Trump said on Monday in a CBS News interview that he thinks the war against Iran "is very complete" and that Washington was "very far ahead" of his initial four- to five-week estimated timeframe.
  "Clearly Trump’s comments about a short-lived war has calmed markets. While there was an overreaction to the upside yesterday, we think there is an overreaction to the downside today," said Suvro Sarkar, energy sector team lead at DBS Bank, adding that the market is underappreciating risks at these levels for Brent.
  
  "Murban and Dubai grades are still well above $100 per barrel, so practically nothing much has changed in terms of ground realities," he added, referring to benchmark Middle Eastern oil grades.
  In response to Trump, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) said they would "determine the end of the war," and Tehran would not allow "one litre of oil" to be exported from the region if U.S. and Israeli attacks continued, state media reported on Tuesday, citing the IRGC’s spokesperson.
  Prices, however, remain under pressure as Trump considers easing oil sanctions on Russia and releasing emergency crude stockpiles as part of a package of options aimed at curbing spiking global oil prices, according to multiple sources.
  "Discussions around easing sanctions on Russian oil, comments from Donald Trump hinting that the conflict could eventually de-escalate, and the possibility of G7 countries tapping strategic oil reserves all pointed to the same message - that oil barrels will somehow continue to reach the market," said Phillip Nova analyst Priyanka Sachdeva in a note on Tuesday.
  "Once traders sensed that supply routes could still be maintained, the initial ’panic premium’ that had pushed prices above the $100 mark yesterday started to fade, and oil prices quickly pulled back."
  G7 nations had said on Monday they were prepared to implement "necessary measures" in response to surging global oil prices but stopped short of committing to release emergency reserves. Source: Reuters/Investing.com
- 2026-03-10
  Oil Shock Spreads Through Global Economy
  Brent crude and WTI are once again above $100 and likely to stay there longer than those involved in the planning of the latest war in the Middle East may have expected. With that, energy-thirsty economies are beginning to feel the pinch, and not everyone... Read more Brent crude and WTI are once again above $100 and likely to stay there longer than those involved in the planning of the latest war in the Middle East may have expected. With that, energy-thirsty economies are beginning to feel the pinch, and not everyone is optimistic that it will be a short pinch.
  
  Brent crude, the global benchmark, surged past $116 per barrel earlier today, with West Texas Intermediate also reaching that level in a rare parity between the two. Murban crude, meanwhile, has hit $120 and sped past it, reflecting the continued freeze of most tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Israel-based maritime intelligence firm Windward reports that crossings of the chokepoint remained significantly below the average over the weekend, with a total of three for Saturday, compared to a seven-day average of 13.43—and a pre-war average of 100. Media are reporting that Iran is widening its target environment—and the country just got its new supreme leader, who is described as a hardliner.
  
  None of this bodes well for global energy security. Aware of that fact, the Trump administration has tried to calm things down by promising federal insurance for tankers in the Strait and a navy escort for vessels. Both of these have yet to materialize, with reports suggesting shipowners were unsure how the federal insurance would work.
  
  Meanwhile, the Navy escort idea would be challenging to put into practice due to the sheer number of tankers currently stuck around the Strait of Hormuz. “There’s hundreds and hundreds of vessels still in the Mideast Gulf,” Matt Wright, a senior freight analyst at Kpler, told CNBC last week. The U.S. Navy would need “an inordinate amount of time to escort them even a few at a time.”
  
  In a further sign that the supply squeeze could last for a while yet, the U.S. administration lifted some sanctions on Russian crude, with U.S. ambassador to the UN Tim Waltz saying that “It's a 30-day pause to allow, which is just kind of common sense, to allow the millions and millions of barrels of oil that are sitting out on ships to go to Indian refineries.”
  
  These millions of barrels sitting on ships, by the way, were just a month ago considered a supply overhang by analysts who kept their oil price forecasts bearish due to that supply overhang. How fast things could change in the world of oil when there’s a war near a supply hub could—and should—be a teachable moment.
  
  Energy Secretary Wright tried to instill a sense of optimism among consumers by essentially pointing out that with no pain, there would be no gain. “If this is brief in duration, it’s a small dislocation,” Wright told the Wall Street Journal last week in an interview. “It’s a small amount of short-term pain for enormous long-term gain for peace and stability and investment in the Middle East.” Wright noted that the war comes “with U.S. oil production at all-time highs, a world well-supplied in oil, [and] new increases in production coming out of Venezuela.” The official noted that currently people are reacting emotionally to the situation because of uncertainty how things will go, but in the end “rationality wins out” on oil markets.
  
  It appears that the big surprise for both analysts and traders was the scale of Iran’s counter-attacks after the United States and Israel first struck it—and the speed of those counter-attacks. This suggests that the majority of professional observers were biased in favor of a best-case scenario and quite dismissive of the worst-case scenario that is currently unfolding—hence the emotional reaction Secretary Wright spoke about.
  
  Besides the emotional reaction, however, the hard fact remains that a lot of oil is stuck in the Persian Gulf and the more time passes, the less supply there will be as producers begin to wind down output for lack of enough storage capacity. Even if all sanctions on Russian oil are lifted—and the EU is unlikely to agree to that easily—this won’t be enough. Even if Venezuelan crude production doubles, it would still not be enough, because the Strait of Hormuz handles 14 million barrels of crude oil daily, according to Kpler data cited today by Reuters columnist Clyde Russell.
  
  Those 14 million barrels daily are pretty much gone at the moment. Windward reports that only one of the three vessels that passed the Strait on Saturday was a tanker. While this is temporary, no one seems to know just how long “temporary” means in the context of this latest war. This uncertainty, coupled with the steps being taken by Middle Eastern producers to reduce supply, is bound to cause even more pain to economies around the world—except China. China has amassed oil reserves of about a billion barrels, per Russell. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-03-10
  Why $100 Oil Isn’t Going to Spark a New Shale Boom
  When oil hit $55 per barrel in late 2025, the drilling and completions side of the industry surrendered. A few months later, war breaks out in Iran, and WTI climbs past $100. That’s a marker at which meaningful drilling should occur. Yet, that’s not what... Read more When oil hit $55 per barrel in late 2025, the drilling and completions side of the industry surrendered. A few months later, war breaks out in Iran, and WTI climbs past $100. That’s a marker at which meaningful drilling should occur. Yet, that’s not what I’m hearing. Rising oil prices are all over the press and inside politics, but they’re not in the conversations I’m having with E&Ps and the service side.
  
  On Day Nine of “Epic Fury,” I was talking with a chemical supplier (I am the owner of a frac company in Appalachia and an E&P in the Powder), and the war never came up. Nor did it with another operator I was talking to, nor with our frac-side operations manager, our drill-side ops manager, our CFO, controller, landman, or our office manager. No one—that I know—is carrying on much about the recent jump in prices, let alone cheering them on. Outside of thinking we'd better hedge, the response has mostly been a few words, a few shrugs, a “let’s take it while we can,” attitude. Our collective reaction would surprise outsiders, but it seems normal to me. A muted response seems rational, even grounded, after years of enduring the whipsaw of ups and downs. It’s also normal to assume that when the war comes to an end, we will be left with a supply and demand picture that may have changed somewhat due to oil installation attacks, but maybe not enough to be supportive of a renewed push to pick up rigs that were just laid down.
  
  Geopolitical risk is as common to drilling as is the risk of dry holes and mechanical failures. War premiums matter, for sure, but not enough to build a developmental program on. In April 2020, we got through the pandemic and an abysmal frac market, plus a storage crisis when WTI hit negative $37 per barrel. Two years later, in March 2022, oil hit a decade high of $130 when Russia invaded Ukraine. Over the next nine months, North America added 100 rigs until early 2023, when the count rolled over in a downhill trend that has yet to be broken.
  
  Dan Doyle is the author of “Of Roughnecks & Riches: A Startup in the Great American Fracking Boom,” a firsthand account of building a company during America’s shale revolution.
  
  Maybe if oil were touching $120, there’d be more chatter. Or more importantly, if oil were to linger in the high $70’s for months on end, we’d see it, but with empty frac schedules and stacked rigs, it’s going to take something constructive, something along the lines of certainty. The quick bucks from war will dissipate, and everyone knows it. I wouldn’t be surprised either if the Trump Administration were to cap prices, like the old days of oil and airline ticket prices.
  
  So far, nothing has changed for us. There’s been no uptick in RFPs, nor are operators calling and asking for room on our frac schedule. It’s because even missile strikes aren’t shaking off the lethargy in oil right now. It gets like that on our service side when there’s little activity. You wait and see. You don’t burn calories. Maybe later, but not now.
  
  My view is that two catalysts need to occur before the phone really starts ringing. One is a change in the supply-demand balance, and the second is a prolonged war, with the inevitability being that they are one and the same. That is, the only thing right now that will change the supply-demand balance is a prolonged war. But that would take time, and my guess is there won’t be much mid-term voter stomach to see a bombing campaign carry on…and on.
  
  The extra dollars flowing in after nine days of war may just go to the completion of a few DUCs. Maybe, but the more likely outcome will be distributions to stakeholders rather than service companies. Capital providers likely aren’t going to free up allocations any time soon. The forward-looking price strip hasn’t adjusted much either.
  
  Like many others looking for something better, I attended NAPE this year, a kind of walking marketplace where money meets prospects. My E&P company didn’t set up a booth, but a lot of friends hocking deals did. What to me was glaringly obvious was the haves-and-haves-not undercurrent among the attendees. Prospect holders were the homely kids at a high school dance—relinquished to the dusty corners of the gym. The cool kids were the ones with the money, the PE firms with those big booths stuffed full of couches and padded chairs, alongside banks, packagers, brokers, and private capital providers. And then there were those talking about family office connections, the unicorns I’m constantly hearing about, but never seeing. I’m sure deals were being made, or will be made, based on introductions and planned meetings, but what I was hearing in terms of deal structure was the Golden Rule. He or she with the gold rules. If oil were sustained at $90, the script would flip, and prospect holders would be the ones with the couches, chairs, and coffee bars. But for now, they’re not. Even with escalating oil prices, the shorts will be waiting for the last missile to drop and will immediately cut the legs out from underneath us when it does. Unless durable supply comes off through damaged oil facilities or sabotage—like the Kuwaiti oil fires set by fleeing Iraqis in the 1991 Gulf War—the market will once again find its way to pricing the marginal barrel, last said to be in the $50’s. But hopefully not. That’s too low, too much of an accelerant for the oscillating sine curve of ups and downs. It’s nothing to build a company on. The same can be said of oil in the $90’s. It’s too high. For that reason, and the Golden Rule, E&Ps will remain cautious and service companies will suffer—until market forces eat away surplus barrels on demand, and not war.
  
  Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-03-10
  MABUX: Global bunker indices to shift into a downward correction on Mar. 10 amid rumors that the war with Iran may soon end.
  The MABUX World Bunker Index — a composite benchmark reflecting daily prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO, and MGO — continued its upward trend for the seventh consecutive session: 380 HSFO: USD/MT 829.51 (+153.76) VLSFO: USD/MT 924.52 (+163.45) MGO: USD/MT... Read more The MABUX World Bunker Index — a composite benchmark reflecting daily prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO, and MGO — continued its upward trend for the seventh consecutive session:
  
  380 HSFO: USD/MT 829.51 (+153.76)
  VLSFO: USD/MT 924.52 (+163.45)
  MGO: USD/MT 1 358.02 (+170.56)
  
  As of Mar. 09, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI) — which tracks the spread between Market Bunker Prices (MBP) and the MABUX Digital Bunker Price Benchmark (DBP) – to maintain strong upward momentum on Mar. 10 amid Middle East tensions:
  
  • HSFO segment: The level of overpricing widened further across all hubs, increasing by $63 in Rotterdam, $400 in Singapore, $178 in Fujairah, and $56 in Houston.
  
  • VLSFO segment: The premium expanded by $69 in Rotterdam, $524 in Singapore, $221 in Fujairah, and $13 in Houston.
  • MGO LS segment: Rotterdam returned to the overpriced zone, meaning all four key ports are now overvalued. The level of overpricing increased significantly by $111 in Rotterdam, $516 in Singapore, $271 in Fujairah, and $68 in Houston.
  
  Amid rumors that the war with Iran may soon end, easing concerns about prolonged disruptions to global crude supplies, we expect the global bunker market to shhift to a downward correction on Mar. 10: 380 HSFO: minus 15–30 USD/MT, VLSFO: minus 15–40 USD/MT, MGO LS: minus 20–90 USD/MT.
  Source: MABUX
- 2026-03-10
  Greenland’s Untested Oil Basin Could Be the Next Big Discovery
  The last time the oil industry chased a frontier like this, it changed the map of global energy. In 1968, a wildcat well on Alaska’s North Slope unlocked Prudhoe Bay, the largest oil field ever discovered in the United States. In 2015, Exxon drilled... Read more The last time the oil industry chased a frontier like this, it changed the map of global energy.
  
  In 1968, a wildcat well on Alaska’s North Slope unlocked Prudhoe Bay, the largest oil field ever discovered in the United States. In 2015, Exxon drilled a well offshore Guyana that opened the Stabroek Block, now estimated to hold more than 11 billion barrels of recoverable oil.
  
  Both discoveries started the same way: a small group of geologists drilling a well in a place most of the industry had already written off.
  
  A company called Greenland Energy now plans to test a similar frontier.
  
  Its target lies in the remote Jameson Land basin on Greenland’s east coast — one of the last unexplored petroleum systems in the Arctic.
  
  And the timing may be unusually important.
  
  Greenland has suddenly become a geopolitical flashpoint. Washington has pushed to bring the island more firmly under U.S. influence as Arctic shipping routes open and Russia and China expand their presence across the region.
  
  That shift has turned the island into something more than an isolated Arctic territory.
  
  It has become a strategic energy frontier.
  
  One of the World’s Most Significant Undrilled Oil Provinces
  
  Greenland Energy was formed to move quickly on the surge of global interest now surrounding Greenland and the Arctic.
  
  The company is being created through a merger between Texas-based explorer March GL, Greenland Exploration Ltd., and Pelican Acquisition Corporation, a Nasdaq-listed special purpose acquisition company. Currently trading as PELI. The transaction is expected to close on March 17th and the combined entity will operate as Greenland Energy Company and is expected to trade on Nasdaq under the new ticker GLND.
  
  The structure brings together the project’s operating team, exploration licenses, and public market capital needed to advance drilling in the Jameson Land basin. Veteran oil executive Robert Price, who founded March GL, will lead the company.
  
  Related:
  Inside North America’s First Fully Integrated Rare Earth Facility
  
  Its objective is clear: drill the first modern exploration wells in the Jameson Land basin and test what geologists believe could be one of the largest undeveloped petroleum systems in the Arctic.
  
  According to Greenland Energy’s corporate presentation, the basin could contain more than 13 billion barrels of recoverable oil if early geological models prove correct.
  
  The estimate builds on roughly 1,800 kilometers of seismic data collected by Atlantic Richfield during exploration campaigns in the 1980s, which modern explorers have since reinterpreted to identify new drilling targets.
  
  Greenland Energy believes the updated interpretation points to a much larger opportunity beneath the basin — and independent analysts are reaching similar conclusions. A petroleum resources evaluation by Sproule-ERCE reached a similar conclusion, identifying the Jameson Land basin as one of the most significant undrilled oil provinces in the Arctic.
  
  Why Jameson Land Looks Familiar to Petroleum Geologists
  
  One reason Jameson Land has drawn renewed interest is its geology.
  
  Long before Greenland and northern Europe were separated by tectonic forces, they formed part of the same sedimentary basin along what geologists now call the Atlantic margin. When the continents pulled apart millions of years ago, the rock layers that once sat side by side were carried with them.
  
  On the European side of that divide, those formations became some of the most prolific oil provinces on Earth. The North Sea fields of Norway and the UK have produced tens of billions of barrels of oil since the 1970s, forming the backbone of Europe’s offshore energy industry.
  
  Jameson Land forms the western edge of the same North Atlantic petroleum system that produced the giant oil fields of the North Sea. Studies by the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland identify Permian-Triassic source rocks and reservoirs across the Jameson Land basin — the same formations responsible for many North Sea oil fields.
  
  For geologists studying the basin today, the key elements of a large petroleum system are already in place.
  
  The first company to seriously test that idea was Atlantic Richfield, and it left behind a goldmine of data that advanced technology is now reinterpreting in a promising way. Back in the 80s’, when Atlantic Richfield launched its Jameson Land exploration campaign, it was one of America’s largest oil producers.
  
  ARCO geologists mapped the basin and collected roughly 1,800 kilometers of seismic data, identifying structures capable of trapping large volumes of oil. Rock samples confirmed an active petroleum system.
  
  But the timing was wrong. Oil prices collapsed in the late 1980s, and the cost of operating in one of the world’s most remote Arctic regions proved too high. ARCO surrendered the licenses in the early 1990s, leaving behind a massive seismic dataset.
  
  Decades later, at the height of a struggle over access to this strategic staging ground, Greenland Energy’s exploration team has returned to the basin and reprocessed those seismic records using modern subsurface imaging technology — the same advanced technology that has helped unlock major discoveries in frontier basins around the world.
  
  The Wildcatter Behind the Arctic Bet
  
  Leading the effort is veteran oilman Robert Price, a Texas wildcatter who has spent more than four decades drilling frontier wells across the United States.
  
  Over the course of his career, Price has helped discover millions of barrels of oil in basins ranging from Oklahoma and Kansas to North Dakota and Montana. Greenland, however, represents a far larger prize..
  
  “I have drilled for and found millions of barrels of oil over my career,” Price said in an interview. “I have never drilled for billions.”
  
  Price founded March GL after reviewing historic exploration data from the Jameson Land basin and concluding the opportunity had never been fully tested. Through the merger with Pelican Acquisition Corporation and Greenland Exploration Ltd., that effort is now forming Greenland Energy — the company preparing to drill the first modern exploration wells in the basin in decades.
  
  The First Wells Planned for 2026
  
  Greenland Energy now plans to drill the wells that could finally answer the question geologists have debated for decades.
  
  The company’s initial campaign will focus on two exploration wells in the Jameson Land basin, targeting large structures first identified in the seismic data collected by Atlantic Richfield and recently reprocessed using modern imaging technology.
  
  Related: Why Trump Wants Magnets More Than Gold
  
  According to company disclosures, the first well is expected to cost roughly $40 million to drill, with a second follow-up well estimated at about $20 million. The campaign is designed to test whether the basin’s geological model holds up once the drill bit reaches the reservoir.
  
  If successful, the results could confirm the presence of a petroleum system capable of supporting a major new Arctic oil province.
  
  Why Greenland Is Back at the Center of Global Strategy
  
  Greenland is no longer an obscure Arctic outpost.
  
  In recent years the island has become one of the most contested strategic locations in the northern hemisphere. President Donald Trump has repeatedly argued that the United States needs Greenland for national security, pointing to the island’s position between North America, Europe, and the Arctic Ocean.
  
  From a military perspective, Greenland anchors the western edge of the Greenland-Iceland-UK gap — a critical corridor used to monitor Russian naval activity entering the North Atlantic.
  
  But security is only part of the equation.
  
  Greenland is also believed to hold major deposits of rare earth elements and other critical minerals that Western governments increasingly view as essential to modern technology and defense supply chains.
  
  Greenland has exploded into the center of global attention.
  
  Governments see rare earth minerals and a strategic foothold over the Arctic — along the sea lanes and military corridors that link North America and Europe.
  
  Oil explorers see one of the last large petroleum systems on the planet that has barely been tested. That’s why Jameson Land and its strategic frontier potential, is back on the oil radar. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-03-10
  Oil Prices Tumble After Trump Signals Iran War Could End Soon
  Oil prices tumbled in early Asian trade on Tuesday after surging to their highest levels since 2022 a day earlier. The drop was driven by comments from Trump that suggested the war with Iran may soon end, easing concerns about prolonged disruptions to... Read more Oil prices tumbled in early Asian trade on Tuesday after surging to their highest levels since 2022 a day earlier. The drop was driven by comments from Trump that suggested the war with Iran may soon end, easing concerns about prolonged disruptions to global crude supplies.
  
  At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading at $89.31 per barrel, down 9.75%, while West Texas Intermediate had fallen to $85.90, down 9.36% on the session.
  
  In a CBS News interview, Trump said the war was “very complete, pretty much” and that the United States was “very far ahead” of his earlier estimate of a four- to five-week timeline for the campaign.
  
  Trump later told reporters that the war would end “very soon,” though he indicated it would not conclude within the coming week.
  
  Those remarks triggered a sell-off in energy markets as traders reassessed the risk of sustained supply disruptions in the Middle East.
  
  Oil had surged well above $100 per barrel on Monday, falling just short of $120 as conflict across the Middle East escalated and Tehran announced Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei as its new supreme leader.
  
  Adding to the downward pressure, Russian President Vladimir Putin held a call with Trump and presented proposals aimed at quickly ending the conflict, according to a Kremlin aide.
  
  Separately, G7 finance ministers said the group “stands ready” to take action if necessary to stabilize oil markets, though they stopped short of announcing a coordinated release of strategic petroleum reserves.
  
  Despite the sharp pullback, crude markets are likely to remain volatile as plenty of geopolitical risk remains, chiefly the fact that it is unclear how Iran will react if there were a cessation of attacks from the U.S.
  
  “Taking the events of the past 24 hours into account, I expect crude oil to remain highly volatile, trading within a wide range between $75ish and $105ish in the sessions ahead,” IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said in a note reported by Reuters.
  
  Meanwhile, disruptions in Gulf production continue to weigh on the outlook. Iraq has cut output at its main southern oilfields by 70% to about 1.3 million barrels per day, while Kuwait Petroleum Corporation has begun reducing production and declared force majeure. Saudi Arabia has also started trimming output.
  
  Iran signaled it could escalate further if attacks continue. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said Tehran would “determine the end of the war” and warned that Iran would not allow “one litre of oil” to be exported from the region if U.S. and Israeli strikes persisted.
  
  Lower oil prices provided relief for broader financial markets. Chinese assets rallied in early Tuesday trading as energy costs fell. China sourced roughly 13% of its oil imports from Iran before the conflict, making oil price swings particularly consequential for the country’s markets.
  
  For now, traders are going to have to wait and see whether geopolitical tensions escalate again or whether diplomatic efforts gain traction. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-03-10
  G7 Nations Delay Strategic Oil Reserve Release Decision
  Finance ministers from the Group of Seven (G7) countries reached a broad agreement on Monday to hold off the release of oil from their respective strategic reserves, for now. The ministers held a teleconference on Monday after oil prices spiked to levels... Read more Finance ministers from the Group of Seven (G7) countries reached a broad agreement on Monday to hold off the release of oil from their respective strategic reserves, for now. The ministers held a teleconference on Monday after oil prices spiked to levels last seen during the global energy crisis triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
  
  The G7 is an informal, intergovernmental economic and political forum comprising seven of the world's most advanced industrialized economies including Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States.
  
  "There was broad consensus on this," one G7 official told Reuters. "It was not that someone was against it, it's just about timing. More analysis is needed," the official said, adding that the final decision will be made by the leaders.
  
  Oil prices retreated in Monday’s mid-day session amid reports that G7 leaders were considering releasing up to 400 million barrels of crude from their strategic reserves. That volume is considerably higher than the 240 million barrels that the Biden administration released from the United States’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve during the previous global energy crisis. Brent crude for April delivery pulled back from a multi-year high of $116.23 per barrel in the early hours of Monday morning to trade at $99.63 per barrel at 12.30 pm ET while WTI crude for April delivery fell from $115.29 per barrel to $95.81.
  
  The big release could impact oil balances in global markets negatively, with the experts still reporting surpluses.
  
  The IEA’s Fatih Birol announced on Friday that there are no plans for emergency releases of oil from joint stocks because,“There is plenty of oil, we have no oil shortage,” Birol said after meeting European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen “There is a huge surplus in the market,” he added.
  
  Last week, JPMorgan Chase warned that Brent crude oil prices could spike to $120 per barrel if a full-scale conflict in the Middle East leads to a sustained disruption of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, with Gulf producers only able to sustain normal production for roughly 25days if the Strait is completely blocked. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-03-10
  Oil Price Shock Could Worsen If U.S. Seizes Iran’s Strategic Oil Island
  JP Morgan has warned that Iran’s oil production could be slashed in half and oil exports could virtually stall if U.S.-Israeli seize Iran's Kharg Island, worsening the ongoing global oil shock. Located in the Persian Gulf, the continental island is the... Read more JP Morgan has warned that Iran’s oil production could be slashed in half and oil exports could virtually stall if U.S.-Israeli seize Iran's Kharg Island, worsening the ongoing global oil shock. Located in the Persian Gulf, the continental island is the "backbone" of Iran's oil infrastructure, handling approximately 90% of its crude exports.
  
  The island collects oil transported via pipeline from Iran’s largest producing fields, including Marun, Ahvaz and Gachsaran. Iran--OPEC’s third-largest producer--pumps about 3.3 million barrels of crude and an additional 1.3 million barrels of condensate and other liquids per day.
  
  Oil prices have surged to near-pandemic levels, with Brent crude for April delivery up 5.7% to trade at $98.13 per barrel at 12.06 p.m. ET, while the corresponding WTI crude contract was up 4.84% to change hands at $95.30 per barrel.
  
  "A direct strike would immediately halt the bulk of Iran’s crude exports, likely triggering severe retaliation in the Strait of Hormuz or against regional energy infrastructure," JP Morgan said.
  
  According to JP Morgan, cited by Arab media, Iran ramped up exports from Kharg Island in the days leading up to attacks by U.S. and Israel to near record levels in excess of 3 million bpd, nearly triple its normal clip at 1.3 million to 1.6 million bpd. According to Kpler, the island’s storage capacity is roughly 30 million barrels of crude, with current storage at approximately 18 million barrels, enough for 10-12 days of exports under normal conditions.
  
  A seizure or direct attacks on Khrag Island would be unprecedented. Former U.S. president Jimmy Carter imposed sanctions on Iran during the hostage crisis of 1979, but did not order strikes on the island. Ronald Reagan, Carter’s successor, targeted Iranian vessels and missile batteries while protecting ships during the 1980s Iran-Iraq Tanker War but also refrained from attacking the island. Similarly, Iraqi forces did not hamper operations at the island during the war.
  
  "Although Iraqi forces struck some ‌terminals and tankers during the eight-year war, Kharg remained largely operational and damage was typically repaired quickly, demonstrating that disabling it would require sustained, large-scale attacks," JP Morgan said. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-03-10
  Record Volumes of Sanctioned Oil Sit on Tankers Offshore China
  Record volumes of nearly 40 million barrels of sanctioned Iranian, Russian, and Venezuelan crude are idling in floating storage on tankers near China, according to Kpler data cited by Bloomberg on Monday. The crude volumes in floating storage, with... Read more Record volumes of nearly 40 million barrels of sanctioned Iranian, Russian, and Venezuelan crude are idling in floating storage on tankers near China, according to Kpler data cited by Bloomberg on Monday.
  
  The crude volumes in floating storage, with more than three-quarters of the tankers laden with Iranian oil, have jumped by 17% compared to the week before the Middle East war started.
  
  The proximity to China and the willingness of Chinese refiners, especially the private crude processors, to buy sanctioned crude could ease – to an extent – the major disruption of global oil supplies following the halt of tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.
  
  Moreover, the Chinese strategy to build up reserves during a nearly year-long buying spree at relatively low prices is now paying off, as the world’s top crude importer has some buffer to power through the early days of the severely disrupted oil flows out of the Middle East, analysts say.
  
  Two-thirds of the crude volumes currently amassed near China – most of which from Iran, per Kpler estimates – sit on tankers anchored in the Yellow Sea, and the rest are in the South China Sea.
  
  China could soak up, in the near term, Iranian and Russian crude that’s been sitting in floating storage for weeks.
  
  India, Asia’s second-largest and the world’s third-largest crude importer, would be a competitor for the Russian barrels after the United States last week issued a temporary one-month license to India allowing it to purchase Russia-origin crude loaded on vessels before or on March 5.
  
  India, the world’s third-largest crude importer, depends on Middle East supply for about 60% of its imports, and the de facto halted tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has put severe pressure on its supplies.
  
  “With the waiver now in place, refiners could quickly resume purchases, potentially pushing Russian inflows around 1.8 to 2 Mbd in the near term,” analysts at Kpler said on Friday.
  
  However, they warned that “While this provides a short-term logistical buffer, it cannot fully offset India’s ~2.6 Mbd exposure to Middle Eastern crude, and competition from Chinese buyers for the same Russian barrels will limit the upside.”
  
  Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-03-10
  Europe’s Gas Prices Continue to Soar as War Resets Supply Routes
  Europe’s benchmark natural gas prices jumped by another 30% at market open on Monday, following a massive 67% weekly gain last week, as oil prices soared past $100 per barrel and Europe remains the most vulnerable customer of LNG supply. The April... Read more Europe’s benchmark natural gas prices jumped by another 30% at market open on Monday, following a massive 67% weekly gain last week, as oil prices soared past $100 per barrel and Europe remains the most vulnerable customer of LNG supply.
  
  The April 2026 contract of the Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures opened 30% higher in Amsterdam on Monday, before giving up some gains to trade 16% higher mid-morning in Europe.
  
  The futures traded at $70.61 (61.245 euros) per megawatt-hour (MWh) on Monday morning. That’s doubled compared to February 27, the day before the war in the Middle East began and roiled energy markets.
  
  Last week, the European benchmark gas price soared by 67% for the steepest weekly gain since the energy crisis of 2022, as the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global LNG flows pass, is effectively closed for traffic.
  
  European gas prices have soared since the war began as Qatar announced it is halting LNG production at Ras Laffan, the world’s biggest liquefaction complex, issued force majeure notices to customers, and the Strait of Hormuz became inaccessible for tanker traffic.
  
  Asia is attracting most flexible-destination LNG cargoes away from Europe amid renewed competition for supply. A growing number of LNG cargoes that were initially en route to Europe have sharply diverted in the Atlantic toward Asia via the Cape of Good Hope as Asian buyers are now winning the competition with Europe with about 20% of global LNG supply currently offline.
  
  A total of 85% of Qatar’s LNG exports go to Asia, so the immediate physical supply crunch is skewed toward Asia, analysts say.
  
  Europe has typically received about 12% of Qatari LNG—a much smaller share compared to Asia’s exposure.
  
  However, the repercussions of a supply squeeze in Asia are huge for Europe, too, as Europe currently loses the competition with Asia for alternative spot supply as the Asian premiums over European prices soar and arbitrage is giving the strongest signal for traders to send LNG cargoes to Asia since the end of 2022. Source: Oilprice.com

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