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MABUX ARA LNG Bunker Index
Port LNG$/mton MGO LS$/mton Date
ARA
1 289.00
+70.00
1 280.00
-10.00
Aug 24
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Port	LNG$/mton	MGO LS$/mton	Date
ARA	1 289.00	+70.00	1 280.00	-10.00	Aug 24

MABUX Global Bunker Index

380HSFO$/mton		VLS FO$/mton		MGO LS$/mton		Date
633.07	-4.50	785.30	-2.41	1 370.21	-2.94	Aug 24

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MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI)

Correlation between market bunker prices (MBP) and MABUX Digital Bunker Price Benchmark (DBP)

All Indexes in $/mton	380HSFO			VLS FO			MGO LS			Date
All Indexes in $/mton	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	Date
Rotterdam	570	660	-90	672	743	-71	1 280	1 464	-184	Aug 24
Singapore	668	687	-19	833	845	-12	1 238	1 457	-219	Aug 24
Fujairah	655	637	+18	812	784	+28	1 436	1 520	-84	Aug 24
Houston	488	643	-155	701	752	-51	1 285	1 424	-139	Aug 24

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Latest News
- 2026-08-25
  Oil steadies as investors weigh impact of latest US sanctions on Iran
  Oil prices recovered ground on Tuesday after settling down more than 2% in the previous session, with investors assessing the impact of the latest U.S. sanctions against Iran. Brent crude futures rose 27 cents, or 0.3%, to $92.44 a barrel by 0330 GMT,... Read more Oil prices recovered ground on Tuesday after settling down more than 2% in the previous session, with investors assessing the impact of the latest U.S. sanctions against Iran.
  
  Brent crude futures rose 27 cents, or 0.3%, to $92.44 a barrel by 0330 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 37 cents, or 0.4%, at $85.38.
  
  Both contracts settled lower on Monday, with U.S. crude oil falling to a one-week low on profit taking after prices rallied over the previous two weeks.
  
  "The market seems largely unfazed by Washington’s push for tighter economic pressure on Iran, with traders treating the U.S. effort to nudge partners away from Iranian trade as marginal rather than market moving," said ING commodity strategists in a note on Tuesday.
  
  U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Monday unveiled an expansion of sanctions to cut off Iran’s economic lifeline, to force an end to the war between them, telling countries they would need to sever their business ties or risk being cut out of the dollar-based financial system.
  
  However, he declined to identify the countries that would be targeted or reveal when those penalties would take effect, saying he would instead provide them time to comply with the new directive.
  
  While U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on Monday the U.S. would not rule out using military force against Iran, the country is turning towards more economic coercion, which analysts said removed concerns about threats to Middle Eastern oil supply because of the war.
  
  "Markets appear to be pricing economic pressure as a lower-risk path for physical supply than kinetic action, which is why the initial reaction was for oil to move lower rather than spike higher," said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM.
  
  However, he warned, "Iran still retains the ability to respond by disrupting shipping, which continues to keep a residual premium in the oil price."
  
  Highlighting those threats, an oil tanker was struck on Tuesday by an unidentified projectile and disabled about 9 nautical miles (16.7 km) northeast of Oman’s Ash Shishah, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations said.
  
  Iran is still maintaining it should have control over the key Strait of Hormuz, which before the war started in February typically carried cargoes equal to about 20% of global oil use. On Monday, it named 45 tankers that had broken its rules on crossing the strait and threatened action against them, including confiscating their cargoes.
  
  The supply disruptions as a result of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran that started on February 28 have caused countries to draw down their commercial and strategic reserves.
  
  On Monday, the Department of Energy reported stocks of crude oil in the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell by about 3.7 million barrels to 289.7 million barrels last week, the lowest since November 1982.
  
  Source: Reuters/Investing.com
- 2026-08-25
  US widens sanctions on Iran but withholds more punishing options
  The U.S. on Monday unveiled an expansion of sanctions that it said would cut off Iran’s economic lifeline but stopped short of the most punishing measures, instead putting the world on notice to cease doing business with the Islamic Republic. Treasury... Read more The U.S. on Monday unveiled an expansion of sanctions that it said would cut off Iran’s economic lifeline but stopped short of the most punishing measures, instead putting the world on notice to cease doing business with the Islamic Republic.
  
  Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said other countries would need to sever business ties with Iran or risk being forced out of the dollar-based financial system.
  
  But he declined to identify the countries that would be targeted or reveal when those penalties would take effect, saying he would instead provide them time to comply with the new directive.
  
  "We are giving everyone the opportunity to remedy bad behavior. Why would I want to blow up the global financial system?" Bessent said at a news conference.
  
  The Treasury Department did announce new sanctions on 60 individuals, entities and vessels, but the list did not include any of the Chinese financial institutions suspected of facilitating Iran’s oil trade.
  
  Struggling to resolve an unpopular war that has pushed energy prices higher, Washington appears to be counting on further economic pressure even though Iran has spent decades under layers of U.S. and international sanctions that have battered its economy but have not deterred its leadership.
  
  Though neither side has launched major strikes in weeks, the war shows little sign of reaching a diplomatic solution. In the meantime the U.S. is seeking new ways to end Iranian attacks on ships in the Gulf and, more recently via its allies, in the Red Sea.
  
  Before the announcement, Iran threatened both a possible military response and further reduction in oil exports from the Gulf in response to any U.S. economic measures. Afterward, Iranian Economy Minister Ali Madanizadeh said, "We are fully prepared for the U.S. sanctions."
  
  "Naturally, the enemies intend to launch an economic terrorist attack on us, but we also have our own tools and know how to play the game. Our defense is no longer so defensive; the enemies should wait for an attack," Madanizadeh told state television.
  
  Brigadier General Hossein Mohebbi, a spokesperson for Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, vowed heavy blows to U.S. vital interests and energy chokepoints if Iran’s infrastructure is threatened, Press TV reported.
  
  Almost six months have passed since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran, sparking a conflict that has snarled shipping in the region, reduced the flow of oil and taken a toll on the U.S. and global economies. Thousands of people have died, most of them in Iran and Lebanon.
  
  While the war has degraded much of Iran’s conventional military capacity, inflicted economic pain and killed then-Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran has preserved enough missile and drone capability to attack its Gulf neighbors and threaten oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, bringing shipping in the key waterway to a near standstill. The exact state of Iran’s nuclear program, which the Americans and Israelis aim to wipe out, remains unknown.
  
  Oil prices fell more than $2 a barrel on Monday, though investors braced for the prospect of further supply disruptions from the Middle East.
  
  ’NO ONE’ BEYOND REACH OF SANCTIONS
  
  Madanizadeh, the economy minister, said neither China nor Russia had "accepted" the U.S. measures, and predicted other countries would resist them.
  
  Bessent previously urged cooperation from China, the biggest buyer of Iranian oil for several years, although the U.S. blockade of Iran’s ports, renewed in mid-July, has already cut Iranian oil flows to China.
  
  Experts say Washington is wary of Chinese retaliation for any sanctions on its banks ahead of expected talks next month between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, with any curbs on China’s exports of critical minerals especially sensitive.
  
  Asked about Chinese banks on Monday, Bessent said, "We want to make clear here today that no one is above the reach of U.S. sanctions."
  
  The Chinese Foreign Ministry said sanctions and pressure tactics do not help and Beijing would do what was necessary to protect China’s interests.
  
  Bessent said the Treasury Department has mapped the networks, facilitators and financial channels that Iran uses to smuggle oil and evade sanctions. He said Washington would be working with U.S. partners to target any source of Iran’s "illicit revenue."
  
  The department said the Iranian government was using five sectors -- digital assets, technology, gold, aviation and shipping -- to prop up its economy and they were on notice for sanctions.
  
  Earlier on Monday, Iran issued a new warning to shipping not to pass through the Strait of Hormuz without its permission, listing 45 ships it said had violated its rules and threatening retaliation for any ship-to-ship transfers with them. Source: Reuters/Investing.com
- 2026-08-25
  MABUX: Global bunker market to continue a downward correction on Aug. 25.
  The MABUX World Bunker Index — a composite benchmark reflecting daily prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO, and MGO – moved slightly lower, supported by easing supply concerns surrounding the Strait of Hormuz: 380 HSFO: USD/MT: 633.07 (-4.50) VLSFO: USD/MT:... Read more The MABUX World Bunker Index — a composite benchmark reflecting daily prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO, and MGO – moved slightly lower, supported by easing supply concerns surrounding the Strait of Hormuz:
  
  380 HSFO: USD/MT: 633.07 (-4.50)
  VLSFO: USD/MT: 785.30 (-2.41)
  MGO: USD/MT: 785.30 (-2.41)
  
  As of Aug. 24, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI), which measures the spread between Market Bunker Prices (MBP) and the MABUX Digital Bunker Benchmark (DBP), showed the following dynamics across the four major global bunkering hubs—Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston:
  
  • HSFO segment: Fujairah remained the only overcharged port, with its premium narrowing by another $4. The other three ports were undercharged. MDI discounts widened by $36 in Rotterdam and $13 in Singapore, while Houston's MDI remained unchanged, with the discount continuing to exceed the $100 mark.
  
  • VLSFO segment: Fujairah was the only overcharged port in this bunker segment, although its premium declined by $11. Rotterdam, Singapore, and Houston were undercharged, with MDI discounts widening by $8, $8 and $2, respectively.
  
  • MGO LS segment: All four ports remained undercharged. MDI discounts widened by $22 in Rotterdam, $23 in Singapore, $17 in Fujairah and $1 in Houston. Undervaluation levels in Rotterdam, Singapore and Houston continued to exceed the $100 threshold.
  
  MABUX expects the Global bunker market to continue a downward correction on Aug. 25, supported by easing supply concerns in the Strait of Hormuz: 380 HSFO: minus 2-8 USD/MT, VLSFO: minus 3-10 USD/MT, MGO LS: minus 3–20 USD/MT.
  Source: MABUX
- 2026-08-25
  Norway Warns Oil and Gas Output Could Collapse After 2030
  Norway is producing oil and gas faster than the industry is finding new resources, increasing the risk of a steep decline after 2030, according to a new report from the Norwegian Offshore Directorate. The warning comes despite strong current activity.... Read more Norway is producing oil and gas faster than the industry is finding new resources, increasing the risk of a steep decline after 2030, according to a new report from the Norwegian Offshore Directorate.
  
  The warning comes despite strong current activity. Norwegian oil production reached its highest level since 2009 last year, while petroleum investment in 2026 is estimated at approximately $25 billion.
  
  Much of today’s spending supports projects and discoveries made years ago. Maintaining production beyond this decade will require more exploration, faster development of existing discoveries and continued investment in mature fields and infrastructure.
  
  The problem is not that Norway is running out of petroleum. It is that too much of the remaining resource base is either undiscovered or insufficiently mature to replace declining production from today’s largest fields.
  
  Production Could Fall Sharply After 2030
  
  The Norwegian Offshore Directorate expects production to remain close to current levels until the end of the 2020s before beginning to decline.
  
  By 2035, total petroleum production is projected to fall to around 160 million standard cubic meters of oil equivalent. That corresponds to approximately 1 billion barrels of oil equivalent annually, or 2.76 million boepd.
  
  The Directorate has also developed three scenarios through 2050. These are not forecasts, but illustrations of how different levels of exploration, investment and technological development could shape the future of the Norwegian Continental Shelf.
  
  In the High scenario, robust exploration, more discoveries and rapid technological development maintain production at around 65% of today’s level in 2050.
  
  In the Low scenario, weaker investment and limited exploration cause activity to contract rapidly, leaving production at only around 5% of today’s level.
  
  Using the same oil and gas prices, the Directorate estimates a net-present-value gap of approximately $344 billion between the High and Low scenarios. When higher prices are applied to High and lower prices to Low, the gap increases to approximately $890 billion.
  
  Norway Still Has Around 44 Billion Boe Remaining
  
  Norway is not short of geological potential.
  
  The Directorate estimates that approximately 7 billion standard cubic meters of oil equivalent remain on the Norwegian Continental Shelf, equal to around 44 billion boe.
  
  Approximately half consists of reserves and resources already identified in fields and discoveries. The other half has yet to be discovered and is therefore subject to considerably greater uncertainty.
  
  The North Sea contains a mature resource base, extensive infrastructure and opportunities for smaller discoveries to be connected to existing platforms.
  
  The Barents Sea holds the largest remaining potential, but much of it remains unexplored. Significant areas have not been opened to petroleum activity, while limited gas export capacity restricts the commercial value of discoveries.
  
  Hammerfest LNG is currently the only gas export facility in the Barents Sea and is fully utilized by the Snøhvit field. Additional export capacity could bring production from existing fields and future discoveries forward by as much as 20 to 30 years.
  
  Exploration Has Delivered Enormous Returns
  
  Between 2000 and 2025, approximately 730 exploration wells were drilled on the Norwegian Continental Shelf, of which 370 resulted in discoveries.
  
  The Directorate estimates that this exploration created close to $430 billion in net present value. For every dollar invested, the industry generated around four dollars in value. Exploration was profitable across all regions of the shelf.
  
  The problem is where companies are drilling. Activity is increasingly concentrated close to established fields and infrastructure. These wells frequently generate profitable discoveries, but the discoveries are generally small and provide limited resource growth.
  
  Larger discoveries are more likely in underexplored areas, but those prospects carry greater geological risk, require more capital and may depend on infrastructure that does not yet exist.
  
  Norway therefore faces a difficult balance. Near-field exploration offers faster and more predictable returns, while frontier exploration offers the greater resource potential needed to sustain production beyond the 2030s.
  
  Existing Fields Still Hold Significant Potential
  
  Companies submitted approximately 145 potential improved-recovery projects in 2025, representing an estimated 280 million standard cubic meters of oil equivalent, or around 1.76 billion boe.
  
  The measures include additional production wells, low-pressure production, late-life production, injection and advanced recovery methods.
  
  New production wells are particularly important. More than 60% of Norway’s oil production in 2025 came from wells drilled after 2020, illustrating how continued drilling is required even at fields that have produced for decades.
  
  Norway also has more than 90 undeveloped discoveries containing over 500 million standard cubic meters of contingent resources—equivalent to more than 3.1 billion boe.
  
  Most are small and depend on access to existing infrastructure. This creates a narrowing window of opportunity: if host platforms, pipelines or processing facilities shut down first, nearby discoveries may lose their only commercially viable route to production.
  
  One closure can therefore trigger a domino effect across an entire producing area.
  
  Fewer Companies, Fewer Geological Ideas
  
  The number of companies operating on the Norwegian Continental Shelf has more than halved since 2013.
  
  Large international companies have withdrawn, while Equinor, Aker BP and Vår Energi increasingly dominate new developments.
  
  This concentration can improve coordination and execution, particularly when smaller discoveries need to be connected to existing infrastructure. But the Directorate warns that fewer companies may also reduce geological diversity and competition for attractive exploration acreage.
  
  Large discoveries often depend on companies interpreting the same geological data differently and being willing to pursue risks others reject.
  
  Norway’s production decline is inevitable over the long term. The question is not whether output falls, but how quickly.
  
  The difference between a controlled decline and a near-collapse will be determined by decisions made now: where companies explore, how quickly discoveries are developed, whether aging infrastructure remains available and whether new technology can unlock resources that are currently uneconomic.
  
  Norway still has the resources to remain a significant petroleum producer for decades. What it no longer has is unlimited time to convert them into production. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-08-25
  The 60 Day Peace Window Closed, and Trump’s Iran Strategy May Shift Dramatically
  17 August marked the 240th anniversary of American folk hero Davy Crockett -- ‘King of the Wild Frontier’, as the old song goes. It also marked the official end of the 60-day period for negotiations to end the conflict between the U.S. and Iran. Whether... Read more 17 August marked the 240th anniversary of American folk hero Davy Crockett -- ‘King of the Wild Frontier’, as the old song goes. It also marked the official end of the 60-day period for negotiations to end the conflict between the U.S. and Iran. Whether U.S. President Donald Trump sees himself as King of his own Wild Frontier is anyone’s guess. And whether he will have an affectionate song written about him in the year to come remains to be seen. But, judging from the current situation in and around Iran, and its ongoing global ramifications, few people are likely to be singing and dancing in the streets any time soon; it seems safe to say. So, where exactly are we in a conflict that has every sign of becoming the sort of ‘endless war’ that Trump swore to his supporters that he would never get the U.S. involved in again?
  
  As it stands now, the U.S. has officially halted peace negotiations and has shifted to a total enforcement posture. Bizarrely, it has to be said, Trump has declared the Strait of Hormuz -- the key global energy transit route through which around 30% of the world’s oil historically moved and about 20% of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) -- “an American territory” and stated he would formally designate it as such “pretty soon”. In line with this extremely bold reimagining of reality, he added: “We have the blockade. No ships get through unless we want them to.” Washington has also re-initiated its most severe economic isolation campaign to date, under the operational handle of ‘Economic D-Day’, warning that any country allowing Iran access to their banks, business networks, or airports will face immediate secondary sanctions. Since the imposition of this policy, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright confirmed that the naval blockade in the Gulf of Oman has brought Iranian crude exports to a near-total halt, with U.S. forces having actively intercepted, redirected, or boarded dozens of commercial vessels attempting to run the blockade.
  
  Iran, meanwhile, has declared the diplomatic window dead and has officially categorised the new U.S. sanctions and blockade as a ‘declaration of war’ on global sovereignty. National Security Council Secretary, Mohsen Rezaei, warned regional neighbours that if they assist the U.S. campaign, Tehran will treat them as enemies and target their interests directly. In line with this, Iranian Army spokesman Brigadier General Mohammad Akraminia stated that the country’s military posture has shifted from defensive to offensive, while Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf issued a list of demands for reopening the vital Strait of Hormuz energy transit route. Iran maintains that shipping will only resume under exclusive Iranian terms, which comprise the immediate lifting of the U.S. blockade of the area, the removal of sanctions on Iran, the payment of war reparations to Tehran, the unfreezing of blocked Iranian financial assets and state funds held abroad, the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman areas, and a permanent end to all military operations and threats against Iran and its regional allies across Lebanon, Palestine, Yemen, and Iraq. In an adjunct move, Tehran is also working on formalising its own permanent transit authority over the chokepoint through a sovereign pact with Oman, with Iran demanding a 5% to 7% cargo transit fee on the value of all commercial shipments passing through the Strait.
  
  Over and above the grand rhetoric and studied unpredictability of Trump’s recent comments on Iran, the kernel of the key objective that he wanted to achieve in the conflict in the first place re-emerged last week. Early in the conflict, Trump clearly laid out the four objectives he wanted to achieve with the action, and these were (in the order in which he said them): making it impossible for Iran to build a nuclear arsenal, degrading and destroying its missile stockpiles and production capabilities, regime change, and the end of the financing and arming of its proxies. Each of these aims was endorsed by every member of his cabinet back in February. In his detailed Truth Social post of 17 August, Trump directly or indirectly reiterated all of these objectives. It ran: “We need all of our Allies to stand with the United States of America to isolate, and defeat, the Iran threat. These maniacs are on the ropes, and these historic measures will cripple them and their ability to project terror worldwide. Iran will never have a nuclear weapon.” Preventing it ever having a nuclear weapon is directly stated, ending its support for proxies is echoed in stopping its ability to project power worldwide, and changing the regime is implied throughout. Interestingly, part of the historical basis for Trump’s contempt for what he views as the inertia of U.S. allies to help more directly in Iran is also alluded to. As examined in detail in my latest book on the new global oil market order, when Trump withdrew the U.S. unilaterally from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (colloquially ‘the nuclear deal’) in 2018, several major European powers busily worked on ways that would allow them to continue to trade with Iran, circumventing the newly re-imposed U.S. sanctions. These measures included the introduction of a special purpose vehicle -- the ‘Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges’ (INSTEX) -- that would act as a clearing house for payments made between Iran and European Union (E.U.) companies doing work there. In response, a letter from the U.S. under-secretary of treasury for terrorism and financial intelligence, Sigal Mandelker, to INSTEX President, Per Fischer, on 7 May 2019 read: ‘I urge you to carefully consider the potential sanctions exposure of INSTEX [as] engaging in activities that run afoul of US sanctions can result in severe consequences, including a loss of access to the US financial systems.’ Trump also rightly regards Europe’s unwillingness to respond forcefully to Russia’s invasion of Crimea in 2014 -- because it did not want to lose its access to cheap and plentiful Russian oil and gas -- as effectively an invitation to Russia the invade the rest of Ukraine in 2022.
  
  There has been much chatter recently about whether Trump would order the use of a nuclear weapon on Iran to end the current stalemate, but according to Washington-based sources who work very closely with Trump’s core team, any mention of this would have occurred merely as part of a full examination of all operational options available in a wargaming scenario. More specifically, it would have occurred in passing examination as a tactical nuclear weapon option to destroy Iran’s remaining highly-enriched uranium that is believed to be located somewhere under Pickaxe Mountain, at depths that cannot be reached by even the most potent of U.S. missiles. “The ramifications of the U.S. using any sort of nuclear weapon anywhere right now, particularly with Russia in Ukraine [as also analysed full in my latest book on the new global oil market order, the U.S. threatened to destroy all Russian forces in Ukraine, Crimea, and the Black Sea, with conventional weapons if Russia used nuclear weapons against Ukraine] and China eyeing Taiwan, would be disastrous, and there are multiple better options,” said one of the sources.
  
  One better option, according to a Washington-based source who works closely with the U.S. Treasury, is maintaining a military presence in and around the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait (the other key regional energy transit route, threatened by the Iran-backed Houthis) to allow oil and LNG traffic to move freely, while at the same time increasing economic sanctions on Tehran. “These were working well before they were relaxed for the peace talks, and they’re likely to do so again, especially if pressure is put on China at the same time,” said the Washington source. Although China has continued its support for Iran since the start of the conflict with the U.S. -- through massive imports of Iranian oil and technology used in Iranian weaponry -- Trump’s ‘Economic D-Day’ may cause Beijing to think again, if the plan is fully implemented. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent confirmed last week that Washington will impose “the ‌toughest sanctions in history" on Iran and urged Beijing to cooperate with the U.S. “It is a one-two punch. We have the blockade [on Iran], and we are going to have the toughest sanctions in history… It is going to work in Iran and we are going to collapse this regime,” he said. “We are confident that everyone wants the Strait (of Hormuz) reopened, and for energy prices to come back down,” he added, “and keep in mind that the Chinese get 50 per cent [of their] energy from inside the Gulf, so it would do them a big service to get with the program.” Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-08-25
  Iran Blacklists 45 Tankers as Hormuz Standoff Escalates
  Iran has blacklisted 45 oil, LNG, LPG and product tankers using the Strait of Hormuz, threatening fines, detention and cargo confiscation as Tehran retaliates against Washington’s looming “economic D-Day.” The list includes vessels owned by shipping... Read more Iran has blacklisted 45 oil, LNG, LPG and product tankers using the Strait of Hormuz, threatening fines, detention and cargo confiscation as Tehran retaliates against Washington’s looming “economic D-Day.”
  
  The list includes vessels owned by shipping companies tied to two of the Gulf’s biggest oil producers, including Saudi Arabia’s Bahri and ADNOC Logistics & Services and its Navig8 Tankers subsidiary, according to Reuters.
  
  Iran’s newly created Persian Gulf Strait Authority said the 45 vessels had violated its rules governing passage through Hormuz. Tehran has previously demanded that ships obtain Iranian clearance before transiting the strait and has sought payments for security and other services.
  
  Iran is now threatening to extend the blacklist beyond those vessels, including targeting ships conducting ship-to-ship transfers with any of the 45 named tankers.
  
  Just four commodity vessels crossed the strait on Sunday after 13 on Saturday, according to Kpler data reported by Reuters. UK Maritime Trade Operations estimates AIS-detected traffic remains roughly 90% below pre-war levels.
  
  Before the Iran war, roughly 20% of global oil and LNG supply moved through Hormuz.
  
  Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Friday that the seven-day average of oil leaving Hormuz had climbed above 8 million barrels per day.
  
  Iran’s move follows its threat Sunday to prevent any oil from leaving the Persian Gulf if Washington proceeds with a new economic offensive against Tehran. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is due to unveil the new measures later on Monday.
  
  Washington’s threatened “economic D-Day” may also have fewer Iranian barrels left to target. Bloomberg reported Monday that Iranian crude shipments to Asia have already all but dried up, even before the new U.S. measures are announced. Bessent has yet to say where the next round of economic pressure will fall. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-08-25
  Treasury Expands Iran Sanctions Without Targeting Major Chinese Banks
  The Trump administration has revealed the details of its “economic D-Day” campaign against Iran, expanding secondary sanctions that threaten foreign companies with exclusion from the U.S. financial system for continuing to do business with Tehran and... Read more The Trump administration has revealed the details of its “economic D-Day” campaign against Iran, expanding secondary sanctions that threaten foreign companies with exclusion from the U.S. financial system for continuing to do business with Tehran and targeting nearly 60 individuals, entities and vessels in the first round of new measures.
  
  Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Monday formally launched “Operation Economic Outcast,” giving countries a defined, but unspecified, timeline to shut down Iran-related activity identified by Washington. The Treasury said countries that fail to comply will face U.S. action, while entities facilitating Iranian money laundering or sanctions evasion risk being cut off from the U.S. financial system.
  
  OFAC issued new sanctions covering Iran’s digital assets, technology, gold, aviation and shipping sectors, allowing the Treasury to sanction foreign persons operating in or providing services to those sectors. Those authorities add to existing sanctions covering Iran’s financial, petroleum and petrochemical industries.
  
  The oil trade remains one of the campaign’s primary targets. Treasury said Monday’s designations include brokers, companies and shadow-fleet vessels operating across the UAE, Hong Kong, China, Singapore, Switzerland and Europe that transport Iranian oil and channel revenues to the IRGC-Quds Force and other Iranian entities. OFAC also sanctioned international companies operating in Iran’s petroleum sector and facilitating the movement and sale of Iranian crude and petroleum products.
  
  China is now being tested. Beijing buys more than 80% of Iran’s seaborne oil, but Washington stopped short Monday of sanctioning the larger Chinese banks that may facilitate those purchases. Iranian crude availability in China is already declining under the U.S. blockade, with Chinese imports estimated at 534,000 barrels per day in August, down from 823,000 bpd in July, according to Reuters.
  
  Iran’s available offshore crude stocks are also shrinking. On Friday, Iranian crude outside the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman had fallen to roughly 83 million barrels from more than 100 million barrels before Washington reinstated its blockade in mid-July. About 40 million barrels were sitting in floating storage near Singapore, with market participants estimating that only around 4 million barrels remained unsold.
  
  Oil prices fell more than 2% earlier Monday as traders took profits ahead of Bessent’s announcement, with WTI at $85.18 and Brent at $92.32 in early Asian trading after both benchmarks gained more than 5% last week. Just shortly after the Treasury reveal, at 2:17 p.m. ET on Monday, Brent crude was trading down 2.56% at $91.97, with WTI down 2.58% at $84.81. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-08-25
  Goldman Sachs: Europe Needs Much Higher Gas Prices to Secure Winter Supply
  Natural gas prices in Europe need to jump by December for European storage to fill up with enough inventory for the coming winter if the Strait of Hormuz crisis persists and keeps spot LNG prices in Asia elevated, according to Goldman Sachs. Since... Read more Natural gas prices in Europe need to jump by December for European storage to fill up with enough inventory for the coming winter if the Strait of Hormuz crisis persists and keeps spot LNG prices in Asia elevated, according to Goldman Sachs.
  
  Since the Middle East crisis began, Europe has started losing the competition with Asia for spot LNG supply amid spiking prices in the absence of most Qatari LNG term volumes.
  
  The Iran war and the intensified competition from Asia came just as Europe is trying to build in the spring and summer natural gas inventories for the next winter.
  
  Current storage levels are about 62% full, data from Gas Infrastructure Europe shows. That’s the lowest level for this time of year in nearly two decades and well below the five-year average.
  
  Current inventory levels are at the lowest in 17 years, and supply available for purchase is tighter than it was back in 2022. Yet Europe needs to start buying gas now—or risk shortages.
  
  The LNG squeeze and the uncertainty about supply prospects have had a direct and rather painful effect on prices. Europeans are competing with Asian gas buyers for a limited volume of LNG, and are currently losing this race.
  
  The current benchmark natural gas prices in Europe at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) “will not be enough for Europe to manage storage through winter,” Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a note this weekend, carried by Bloomberg.
  
  “In a scenario where Middle East energy exports normalize only gradually through 2027, we estimate that December 2026 TTF would likely need to move above €100/MWh,” they said.
  
  This is 110% above Goldman Sachs’ base case of 50 euros per MWh, the analysts said.
  
  As of Monday morning, Europe’s benchmark natural gas prices, the Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures, were up by 1.5% at $78 (66.85 euros) per MWh, much lower than the $116 (100 euros) per MWh price Goldman estimates would incentivize accelerated stockbuilding in the coming months.
  
  Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-08-25
  Equinor and Aker BP Make New North Sea Gas Discovery
  Norwegian oil and gas firms Equinor and Aker BP have made a gas and condensate discovery close to the operating Balder field in the North Sea, the Norwegian Offshore Directorate, the regulator of the industry in Norway, said on Monday. Equinor and... Read more Norwegian oil and gas firms Equinor and Aker BP have made a gas and condensate discovery close to the operating Balder field in the North Sea, the Norwegian Offshore Directorate, the regulator of the industry in Norway, said on Monday.
  
  Equinor and Aker BP had an exploration well drilled in a production license 16 kilometers (10 miles) northwest of the Balder field and 205 kilometers (127 miles) west of Stavanger, a major oil services hub in Norway.
  
  Preliminary estimates indicate the size of the discovery is between 0.1 and 2.1 million standard cubic meters (Sm3) of recoverable oil equivalent, the Norwegian regulator said.
  
  The licensees are now reviewing the result from the well and the other wells previously drilled in the license to consider further exploration potential in the production license.
  
  Norway, Equinor, Aker BP, and other producers in the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS) continue to pursue drilling and development in areas close to existing infrastructure to fast-track potential new projects by tie-backs to operational platforms.
  
  The country and its producers are vying to maintain a high level of oil and gas production and exports for at least another decade, to boost Norway’s economy and deliver oil and gas to Europe.
  
  Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine cut off most Russian gas to Europe, Norway has become the single biggest supplier of gas to the EU and the UK.
  
  Equinor, in particular, plans to drill 20 to 30 exploration wells every year as it aims to sustain current production levels all the way through 2035, the company said in January when it was awarded 35 new production licenses on the Norwegian continental shelf in Norway’s tender for mature exploration areas.
  
  Norway produces more than 4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, with oil and gas nearly equally divided at 2 million boepd each. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-08-25
  Norway Takes Oilfield Climate Battle to Supreme Court
  The Norwegian government is asking the country’s Supreme Court to overturn lower-court rulings that invalidated the development permits of three new oilfields in Norway’s North Sea. The case was brought to court three years ago by environmental organizations... Read more The Norwegian government is asking the country’s Supreme Court to overturn lower-court rulings that invalidated the development permits of three new oilfields in Norway’s North Sea.
  
  The case was brought to court three years ago by environmental organizations Greenpeace Nordic and Nature og Ungdom (Nature & Youth). In 2023, the campaigners challenged three administrative decisions of the Norwegian Energy Ministry, which had approved the plan for the development and operation of the oil and gas fields of Breidablikk, Yggdrasil, and Tyrving in the North Sea.
  
  Breidablikk, operated by Equinor, and Yggdrasil, developed and operated by Aker BP, are already producing oil and gas. Tyrving, another Aker BP development, is expected to start up later this year.
  
  The campaigners argued that the environmental assessments and reviews by the Norwegian authorities granted the development and operation licenses without considering the Scope 3 emissions of the customers’ burning of the oil and gas produced at these fields.
  
  In November 2025, the Norwegian government lost an appeal to have the invalidated licenses overturned. However, the court of appeal allowed production at the two producing fields to continue and gave the state of Norway six months to rectify the shortcomings in the assessment of the plans for field development.
  
  “The state will argue that the additional assessments of foreign emissions now clearly satisfy all the requirements," the Office of the Attorney General said, as carried by Reuters, as the Supreme Court begins hearings on the case on Monday.
  
  The Supreme Court will hear arguments for four days until August 27, with the ruling expected later this year.
  
  The Norwegian government is fighting for the new oilfields as it strongly supports the country’s oil and gas industry, a major contributor to GDP and jobs, as well as to the world’s biggest sovereign wealth fund with $2.3 trillion in assets. Source: Oilprice.com

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