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MABUX ARA LNG Bunker Index
Port LNG$/mton MGO LS$/mton Date
ARA
745.01
-45.27
616.00
+1.00
Sep 9
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Port	LNG$/mton	MGO LS$/mton	Date
ARA	745.01	-45.27	616.00	+1.00	Sep 9

MABUX Global Bunker Index

380HSFO$/mton		VLS FO$/mton		MGO LS$/mton		Date
502.38	+3.89	601.24	+2.89	749.95	+3.76	Sep 13

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MBP INDEX vs DBP INDEX (ICE/NYMEX)

All Indexes in $/mton	380HSFO			VLS FO			MGO LS			Date
All Indexes in $/mton	MBP Index	DBP Index	Diff	MBP Index	DBP Index	Diff	MBP Index	DBP Index	Diff	Date
Rotterdam	410	459	-49	506	547	-41	616	737	-121	Sep 13
Singapore	445	474	-29	583	549	+34	623	746	-123	Sep 13
Fujairah	465	485	-20	576	542	+34	777	794	-17	Sep 13
Houston	415	456	-41	505	572	-67	637	645	-8	Sep 13

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Analytical Section
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Latest News
- 2024-09-13
  Oil prices rise as US production slowly resumes after hurricane
  Oil prices rose more than $1 a barrel on Friday, extending their rally and putting crude on course for a weekly gain on the back of output disruptions in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico after Hurricane Francine forced the evacuation of production platforms. Brent... Read more Oil prices rose more than $1 a barrel on Friday, extending their rally and putting crude on course for a weekly gain on the back of output disruptions in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico after Hurricane Francine forced the evacuation of production platforms.
  Brent crude futures were up $1.16 cents, or 1.6%, at $73.13 a barrel by 10:49 a.m. EDT (1449 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose $1.24, or 1.8%, to $70.21.
  If those gains hold, both benchmarks will break a streak of weekly declines despite Brent crude dipping below $70 a barrel on Tuesday for the first time since late 2021.
  At current levels, Brent is set for a weekly increase of about 3% while WTI is poised to register a roughly 3.5% gain.
  "Ongoing supply disruptions in Libya and larger-than-expected disruption in the Gulf of Mexico due to Hurricane Francine keep the oil market tight," said Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS.
  "Further support is likely coming from short-covering activity as a result of rebounding prices."
  A weaker U.S. dollar also helped support oil prices. Dollar weakness makes dollar-denominated commodities cheaper for holders of other currencies.
  Oil producers assessed damage and conducted safety checks on Thursday as they prepared to resume operations in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico after Francine, which has since been downgraded to a storm. Official data showed that nearly 42% of the region's oil output was shut in as of Thursday.
  The storm-based rally could be short-lived, however, considering the weather system failed to curtail onshore crude production, said Jim Ritterbusch, energy analyst at Ritterbusch and Associates.
  
  "These cuts are expected to prove brief and within the broader context are unlikely to spur much movement in the crude balances given the importance of shale production that accounts for the major portion of U.S. output," Ritterbusch said.
  Both the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered their demand growth forecasts this week, citing economic struggles in China, the world's largest oil importer.
  U.S. oil stockpiles also rose across the board last week as crude imports grew and exports dipped, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday.
  Investors are looking ahead now to the U.S. Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting next week. It is widely expected to cut interest rates on Wednesday. Source: Reuters/Investing.com
- 2024-09-13
  GLOBAL: KBR AWARDED CONTRACT FOR FLOATING BLUE AMMONIA STUDY BY SAMSUNG HEAVY INDUSTRIES
  KBR has announced it has secured a conceptual study contract from Samsung Heavy Industries (SHI) to develop floating blue ammonia production technology. Houston based, KBR has been active in the field of ammonia technology for over 80 years, having... Read more
- 2024-09-13
  AMERICAS: GALVESTON LNG BUNKER PORT INKS GAS SUPPLY AGREEMENT
  Galveston LNG Bunker Port (GLBP) has entered into a Gas Supply Agreement (GSA) for the delivery of natural gas to the proposed GLBP terminal in Texas City, Texas. GLBP has laid the foundation for a partnership with Energy Transfer’s Houston Pipeline... Read more
- 2024-09-13
  GLOBAL: IMO INVITING APPLICATIONS FOR ASSISTANCE ON DECARBONISATION PILOT PROJECTS
  The International Maritime Organization (IMO) is inviting applications for technical assistance to support pilot projects focused on zero- or near-zero GHG emission solutions onboard ships and in ports. In a notice posted on its website today (12 September),... Read more
- 2024-09-13
  ASIA PACIFIC: GOH CHUNG HUN RETURNS TO LR AS PRESIDENT OF SINGAPORE BRANCH
  Goh Chung Hun will rejoin Lloyd’s Register (LR) as President of its Singapore branch following a three-year tenure as General Manager (Fleet) at Pacific International Lines (Pte) Ltd (PIL). Chung Hun, who was Marine Operations Manager in Singapore... Read more
- 2024-09-13
  GLOBAL: IEA: RECENT DOWNTURN IN CHINA’S OIL DEMAND ‘EVEN MORE ACUTE THAN EXPECTED’
  The International Energy Agency (IEA) has reported that global oil demand is ‘cooling sharply’ amid an ‘abrupt deceleration in Chinese oil consumption’. In a statement issued today (12 September), the IEA said: ‘Monthly data reported by countries representing... Read more
- 2024-09-13
  Oil extends recovery to cap volatile week
  Oil prices rose on Friday, extending a rally sparked by output disruptions in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, where Hurricane Francine forced producers to evacuate platforms before it hit the coast of Louisiana. Brent crude futures rose by 34 cents, or 0.5%,... Read more Oil prices rose on Friday, extending a rally sparked by output disruptions in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, where Hurricane Francine forced producers to evacuate platforms before it hit the coast of Louisiana.
  Brent crude futures rose by 34 cents, or 0.5%, to $72.31 per barrel by 0322 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose by 39 cents, or 0.6%, to $69.36 a barrel.
  If those gains hold, both benchmarks will break a streak of weekly declines, despite a rough start that saw Brent crude dip below $70 a barrel on Tuesday for the first time since late 2021. At current levels, Brent is set for a weekly increase of about 1.7%, and WTI is set to gain over 2%.
  "A previous dip to an almost three-year low called for some near-term breather to end the week, as market participants price (in) for the disruptions to short-term oil supplies caused by Hurricane Francine," said IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong in an email.
  Oil producers assessed damage and conducted safety checks on Thursday as they prepared to resume operations in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, as estimates emerged of the loss of supply from Francine.
  UBS analysts forecast output in the region in September will fall by 50,000 barrels-per-day (bpd) month-over-month, while FGE analysts estimated a 60,000 bpd drop to 1.69 million bpd.
  Official data showed nearly 42% of the region's oil output was shut-in as of Thursday.
  "But if production delays were to prove to be short-lived and damages to oil platforms were to be minimal, those gains may be unwound, as the broader demand outlook continues to serve as a key headwind to limit any sustained recovery," Yeap said.
  
  Demand expectations remained dismal as both the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and the International Energy Agency this week lowered their demand growth forecasts, citing economic struggles in China, the world's largest oil importer.
  "The recent run of weaker Chinese economic data suggests that oil demand in the world's second largest economy may remain subdued for longer, while demand has been soft in other countries outside of China as well," said IG's Yeap.
  China's crude oil imports averaged 3.1% lower this year from January through August compared to the same period last year, customs data showed on Tuesday.
  "Flagging domestic oil demand in China has become a hot topic and was further underlined by disappointing August trade data," FGE analysts said in a note to clients.
  Demand concerns have grown in the United States as well. U.S. gasoline and distillate futures traded at multi-year lows this week, as analysts highlighted weaker-than-expected demand in the top petroleum consuming country.
  U.S. oil and fuel stocks rose last week as demand declined sharply, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed on Wednesday. Source: Reuters/Investing.com
- 2024-09-13
  Influence in This Key Oil Hub is Essential for Both The U.S. and China
  Recent landmark deals by China and the U.S. reaffirm that the United Arab Emirates (U.A.E.) remains vital to the Middle East strategies of the two global superpowers - and for much the same reasons. The first deal was the signing on 25 July of a strategic... Read more Recent landmark deals by China and the U.S. reaffirm that the United Arab Emirates (U.A.E.) remains vital to the Middle East strategies of the two global superpowers - and for much the same reasons. The first deal was the signing on 25 July of a strategic alliance agreement between the China National Offshore Oil Company (CNOOC) and the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) to deepen cooperation. The second deal was the signing of a strategic partnership between the U.S.’s ExxonMobil and ADNOC to establish the world’s largest low-carbon hydrogen facility.
  
  However, for both China and the U.S., the U.A.E. has an importance way beyond that intimated in these deals. To begin with, its geographical position makes it an ideal energy hub between the East and West, further supported by its plethora of ports and storage facilities spread across the seven constituent emirates of Abu Dhabi, Ajman, Dubai, Fujairah, Ras Al Khaimah, Sharjah, and Umm Al Quwain. Fujairah is especially seen as having an extremely strategically advantageous position to deal with any potential oil supply disruptions that might come from Iran and its regional proxies, especially the Houthis. This is due to its location both outside the Persian Gulf and a healthy 160 kilometres from the politically ultra-sensitive Strait of Hormuz, through which around 30 percent of the world’s oil has historically transited.
  
  Additionally, the U.A.E. is one of the world’s key oil pricing hubs, as it is home to the Dubai benchmark. This has also enabled the rapid expansion of energy trade flows coming out of the Dubai Multi-Commodities Centre, with more storage capacity from Fujairah also allowing traders greater flexibility in their deals, and a very supportive financial infrastructure created by its authorities. This has been further enhanced by the quick development of the Abu Dhabi-based ICE Futures Abu Dhabi (IFAD), with its focus on the trading of futures contracts for the light, sweet Murban crude oil that constituted around half of the UAE’s total near-4 million barrels per day (bpd) crude oil production before the outbreak of Covid in 2020. The growth in its trading capabilities has run alongside the development of the U.A.E.’s plans to expand its already sizeable oil output - around 4 million bpd in recent years – to 5 million bpd.
  
  China made the U.A.E. a key focus of the Middle Eastern section of its multi-generational power-grab project, the ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ (BRI), back when it was launched in 2013 by President Xi Jinping. Through its ‘Iran-China 25-Year Comprehensive Cooperation Agreement’, first revealed anywhere in the world in my 3 September 2019 article on the subject and as analysed in full in my latest book on the new global oil market order, Beijing exercises enormous influence over what happens in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz. Through other similar deals in the region, China also has a hold over the Bab al-Mandab Strait, through which crude oil is shipped upwards through the Red Sea towards the Suez Canal before moving into the Mediterranean and then westwards.
  
  The new agreement between the CNOOC and ADNOC will see greater cooperation in oil, gas exploration and production, oilfield services and the trading of crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG). CNOOC stated recently that it is ramping up such cooperation with countries participating in its BRI programme, having first entered the U.A.E.’s upstream business in 2019. Last year, the U.A.E. celebrated the 10th anniversary of the launch of the BRI, and official data shows that around 90 percent of the U.A.E.’s non-oil trade in that year came from countries participating in the BRI. In terms of China specifically, it remained the U.A.E.’s top non-oil trade partner in 2023, accounting for 12 percent of its total trade. Extending its influence in the U.A.E. perfectly augments Beijing’s strategy to exercise increasing control over these key energy transport routes.
  
  Perhaps even more importantly for China, any gains in the U.A.E. further thwart the U.S.’s long-running attempts to gradually position the Emirates more firmly in its sphere of influence. Back in 2020, the U.A.E. was seen by Washington as vital to its plans for the Middle East following its unilateral withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA, or ‘nuclear deal’) with Iran in 2018. Its importance grew as the notions of withdrawing from Afghanistan and Iraq increased. Not only was the U.A.E. a significant oil producer located in a perfect location in the region, but it also appeared ideally placed to the U.S. to play a key role in Washington’s plans to position India as an increasing rival to China in the Asia-Pacific region.
  
  At that time, a military clash between India and China had occurred in the disputed territory of the Galwan Valley in the Himalayas, as also analysed in my latest book. Washington thought this might mark a new ‘push back’ strategy from India against China’s policy of seeking to increase its economic and military alliances through the BRI. The U.S. believed that this military push back might also be echoed in India’s economic desire to finally make substantive progress on its ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy as an alternative to the BRI programme. Additionally propitious for Washington in this regard was that India’s rapid economic development was expected to drive a huge expansion in its demand for oil and gas. Indeed, at the time, the International Energy Agency predicted that India would make up the biggest share of energy demand growth at 25 percent over the next two decades.
  
  Peculiarly to many perhaps, the U.A.E. had a uniquely close relationship with India in the field of energy, as also detailed in my latest book. ADNOC was at that point the only overseas company allowed to hold and store India’s vitally-important Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR). India’s government then approved a proposal that would allow ADNOC to export oil from the SPR if there was no domestic demand for it. In the first instance, this would be done from the Mangalore strategic storage facility, with the other major SPR pool being at Padur. This decision marked a major shift in the policy of India in the handling of these vital energy reserves, with the country having previously banned all oil exports from the SPR storage facilities.
  
  Consequently, Washington thought that a virtuous circle of diplomatic, economic, and geopolitical power could be constructed, with the U.A.E. holding an increasingly vital position in India’s burgeoning oil and gas needs, which would in turn drive its economic and political threat to China as the dominant player in Asia-Pacific. This would then boost the U.A.E.’s finances (that were still struggling to recover from the 2014-2016 Oil Price War) through increased energy sales, which would place the Emirates even more firmly in the U.S.’s Middle East sphere of influence. As a result of these multiple factors, the U.A.E. signed the 13 August 2020 U.S.-brokered relationship normalisation deal with Israel.
  
  This, though, did not stop China from continuing the development of its own relationship with the U.A.E., which negatively culminated for the U.S. in the revelation over the Christmas period of 2021 that U.S. intelligence sources had identified that China had been building a secret military facility in and around the big U.A.E. port of Khalifa. Based on classified satellite imagery and human intelligence data, U.S. officials stated that China had been working for several months “to establish a military foothold in the U.A.E.” Early February this year also saw the U.A.E. inform the U.S. that it would no longer allow its warplanes and drones based at the Al Dhafra air base to carry out strikes in Yemen and Iraq without notifying Emirati officials ahead of time. This prompted Washington to move its key fighting air assets to nearby Qatar, which is now the U.S.’s major non-NATO ally in the Middle East, according to President Joe Biden, as also detailed in full in my new book.
  
  That said, the latest ExxonMobil deal with ADNOC may signal a new attempt at a gradual broader based rapprochement by Washington with the U.A.E. According to senior Washington-based energy security sources spoken to by OilPrice.com, the U.S. believes that its efforts of effect a lasting agreement to end the ongoing Israel-Hamas War might also allow for the beginning of a broader rapprochement with the Emirates. “The U.A.E. is embarking on a big investment programme in its gas operations [US$13 billion on the next five years], so we might be able to do something there,” said one of the U.S. sources recently. “This is linked to a big push to boost its LNG [liquefied natural gas] capacity, and they’ve asked India to invest in a big new plant [in Ruwais] connected to this, so we might be able to work something there as well,” he concluded. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2024-09-13
  MABUX: Global bunker indices to trend higher on Sep.13.
  MABUX World Bunker Index (as index calculated based on current prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO and MGO), showed a slight upward evolution on Sep.12: 380 HSFO - USD/MT - 498.49 (+6.18) VLSFO - USD/MT – 598.35 (+3.37) MGO - USD/MT – 746.19 (+3.14) As... Read more MABUX World Bunker Index (as index calculated based on current prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO and MGO), showed a slight upward evolution on Sep.12:
  
  380 HSFO - USD/MT - 498.49 (+6.18)
  VLSFO - USD/MT – 598.35 (+3.37)
  MGO - USD/MT – 746.19 (+3.14)
  
  As of Sep.12, the MABUX MBP/DBP Index (MDI), tracking the correlation between market bunker prices (MBP) and the MABUX digital bunker price benchmark (DBP), indicated the following trends across key ports – Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston:
  
  - HSFO segment: All four ports continued to be undercharged. The underpricing margin widened by $24 in Singapore and $3 in Houston but narrowed by $2 in Fujairah. The MDI index in Rotterdam remained unchanged, while the index in Fujairah continued approaching the $100 mark.
  
  - VLSFO segment: Two ports: Rotterdam and Houston, were undercharged, with the premium rising by $10 in Rotterdam and $9 in Houston. Singapore and Fujairah were in the overprice zone, with the gap declining by $19 in Singapore and $9 in Fujairah.
  
  - MGO LS segment: Fujairah and Houston were still overpriced, with the overpricing ratio widening further by $7 in Fujairah but narrowing by $8 in Houston. Rotterdam and Singapore were underpriced, with the gap narrowing further by $10 in Rotterdam and $12 in Singapore. Both ports' MDI indices dropped below the USD 100 mark, while Houston’s MDI approached the 100-percent correlation mark between the market price and the MABUX digital benchmark.
  
  We expect Global bunker indices to trend higher on Sep.13: 380 HSFO – plus 2-6 USD/MT, VLSFO – plus 3-7 USD/MT, MGO LS – plus 5-10 USD/MT.
  Source: MABUX
- 2024-09-13
  How Falling Oil Prices Could Save The Economy
  Oil’s recent slump to the low $70s and the brief dip into the $60s handle could open the door wider for the major economies to avoid recessions. Lower gasoline and energy prices are suppressing inflation, giving central banks more ammunition to cut... Read more Oil’s recent slump to the low $70s and the brief dip into the $60s handle could open the door wider for the major economies to avoid recessions.
  
  Lower gasoline and energy prices are suppressing inflation, giving central banks more ammunition to cut interest rates faster. This, in turn, would support economies and boost the purchasing power of households.
  
  Brent oil’s slump to below $70 per barrel earlier this week may be bad news for the budgets of the OPEC+ producers seeking to manage supply and prices, but it’s generally good news for the Fed and other central banks.
  
  The sooner the Fed starts easing the monetary policy, the faster the benefits to the economy would trickle, with the U.S. economy more likely to pull off the so-called “soft landing” that policymakers have been seeking to achieve.
  
  Oil Price Slump
  
  Brent Crude prices crashed earlier this week to below $70 per barrel amid concerns about global demand and the second consecutive downward revision to oil demand growth estimates by OPEC.
  
  Signs of weak demand and weakening refining margins have weighed on oil prices and market sentiment, prompting speculators and money managers to slash their bullish bet on oil futures to the lowest on record dating back to 2011.
  
  Following last week’s selloff, prices somewhat stabilized on Monday before crashing by 4% on Tuesday after OPEC trimmed its demand view in a second consecutive monthly report.
  
  Brent Crude prices slumped below $70 per barrel, and the U.S. benchmark, WTI Crude, fell below $66 a barrel on Tuesday as both benchmarks settled at a nearly three-year low – at their lowest level since December 2021.
  
  Inflation in Check?
  
  Oil prices at $70 or lower could reduce inflation rates and boost disposable income for consumers, analysts and bankers have told Bloomberg.
  
  “It’s very helpful, especially for central banks,” Christof Ruehl, senior analyst at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, told Bloomberg.
  
  “It takes pressure off inflation, which is exactly what central banks need now.”
  
  Inflation in the United States cooled in August, also thanks to falling gasoline and energy prices, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed this week. Last month, consumer prices rose at their slowest pace since 2021. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.5% over the prior year in August, a considerable drop from the 2.9% annualized growth in July.
  
  The energy index decreased by 4.0% for the 12 months ending August, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said.
  
  Despite the fact that the inflation rate is falling, it still remains above the Fed’s targeted level of 2%.
  
  The Fed is widely expected to make the first cut to interest rates when the committee meets next week.
  
  CME FedWatch, the tool compiling the latest probabilities of the Fed’s rate moves, shows that interest rate traders expect a cut on September 18. Most expect a 0.25 percentage point cut, but 13% see a 0.5 percentage point cut.
  
  A weak U.S. jobs report on Friday exacerbated fears of a recession and contributed to the oil price slump at the end of last week.
  
  But Janet Yellen, the Treasury Secretary, said on Saturday that the U.S. economy remains strong and may have managed a soft landing.
  
  “I’m attentive to downside risk now on the employment side, but what I think we’re seeing, and hope we will continue to see, is a good, solid economy,” Secretary Yellen said at the Texas Tribune Festival in Austin.
  
  “It really has been amazing to be able to get inflation down as meaningfully as we have. This is what most people would call the soft landing,” she added.
  
  Oil Trading Giants Bearish on Crude Prices
  
  If oil prices hold at current levels in the low $70s or below, the soft landing could be closer than previously thought.
  
  And major independent oil traders believe that prices could remain at these levels or dip below the $70 per barrel threshold due to ample supply and weak Chinese demand.
  
  At the APPEC event in Singapore earlier this week, oil trading giants Trafigura and Gunvor expressed bearish views on prices and demand.
  
  Ben Luckock, Global Head of Oil at Trafigura, said early on Monday he expects Brent to drop into the $60s handle, although he warned that traders shouldn’t put all their eggs in the basket of shorts.
  
  The price of Brent is “probably going to go into the $60s some time relatively soon,” Luckock said.
  
  Gunvor’s co-founder and chairman, Torbjorn Tornqvist, told the conference that Brent’s fair value is now $70 a barrel as supply outpaces demand. The problem with oversupply is not the OPEC+ policy but the fact that the group doesn’t have control over the jump in non-OPEC+ supply, Tornqvist said.
  
  If oil prices head toward $60 a barrel in 2025, “The probability of pulling off a soft landing would increase — that applies to Europe as well as the US,” Tim Drayson, head of economics at Legal & General Investment and a former UK Treasury official, told Bloomberg.
  
  “On balance it would be a net positive for the world getting rates back down, and helping central banks get back to neutral.”
  
  Source: Oilprice.com