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MABUX ARA LNG Bunker Index
Port LNG$/mton MGO LS$/mton Date
ARA
728.77
+33.57
967.00
+19.00
Sep 14
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Port	LNG$/mton	MGO LS$/mton	Date
ARA	728.77	+33.57	967.00	+19.00	Sep 14

MABUX Global Bunker Index

380HSFO$/mton		VLS FO$/mton		MGO LS$/mton		Date
583.71	+1.16	692.77	+1.37	1 026.65	+9.57	Sep 22

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MBP INDEX vs DBP INDEX (ICE/NYMEX)

All Indexes in $/mton	380HSFO			VLS FO			MGO LS			Date
All Indexes in $/mton	MBP Index	DBP Index	Diff	MBP Index	DBP Index	Diff	MBP Index	DBP Index	Diff	Date
Rotterdam	585	589	-4	619	693	-74	967	1 075	-108	Sep 22
Singapore	528	595	-67	663	699	-36	946	1 084	-138	Sep 22
Fujairah	514	608	-94	655	694	-39	974	1 132	-158	Sep 22
Houston	564	565	-1	660	702	-42	1 015	1 049	-34	Sep 22

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Latest News
- 2023-09-23
  JPMorgan Analyst Sees Energy Supercycle With Oil As High As $150
  JPMorgan’s head of EMEA energy equity research, Christyan Malek, warned markets on Friday that the recent Brent price surge could continue upwards to $150 per barrel by 2026, according to a new research report. Several catalysts went into the $150... Read more JPMorgan’s head of EMEA energy equity research, Christyan Malek, warned markets on Friday that the recent Brent price surge could continue upwards to $150 per barrel by 2026, according to a new research report.
  
  Several catalysts went into the $150 price warning, including capacity shocks, an energy supercycle—and of course, efforts to push the world further away from fossil fuels.
  Most recently, crude oil prices have surged on the back of OPEC+ production cuts, mostly led by Saudi Arabia who almost singlehanded took 1 million bpd out of the market, followed by a fuel export ban from Russia. Increased crude demand paired up with the supply restrictions, boosting crude oil prices and contributing to rising consumer prices.
  
  Brent prices were trading around $93.55 on Friday afternoon, but Malek expects Brent prices between $90 and $110 next year, and even higher in 2025.
  
  “Put your seatbelts on. It’s going to be a very volatile supercycle,” Malek told Bloomberg on Friday, as the analyst warned about OPEC’s production cuts and a lack of investment in new oil production.
  
  JPMorgan said in February this year that Oil prices were unlikely to reach $100 per barrel this year unless there was some major geopolitical event that rattled markets, warning that OPEC+ could add in as much as 400,000 bpd to global supplies, with Russia’s oil exports potentially recovering by the middle of this year. At the time, JPMorgan was estimating 770,000 bpd in demand growth from China—less than what the IEA and OPEC were estimating.
  JPMorgan now sees the global supply and demand imbalance at 1.1 million bpd in 2025, but growing to a 7.1 million bpd deficit in 2030 as robust demand continues to butt up against limited supply.
  
  Source: oilprice.com
- 2023-09-23
  Goldman Sachs Predicts $100 Oil As Renewable Transition Falters
  This week, Goldman Sachs raised its oil price target to $100 again. The bank cited lower OPEC output combined with higher demand, which taken together, "more than offset significantly higher U.S. supply." The average gas price in the U.S. on September... Read more This week, Goldman Sachs raised its oil price target to $100 again. The bank cited lower OPEC output combined with higher demand, which taken together, "more than offset significantly higher U.S. supply."
  
  The average gas price in the U.S. on September 20 was $3.875, slightly lower than a day earlier but $0.20 higher than a year ago.
  Even with higher gas prices, EV purchases have slowed down instead of rising.
  
  In Europe, the deindustrialization of Germany is no longer news, the car industry is bracing for a Chinese EV rush, and Brussels is trying to build an energy transition supply chain from scratch.
  
  Meanwhile, offshore wind developers are canceling projects in both Europe and the U.S., solar developers in the EU are complaining about cheap Chinese panels.
  
  Also meanwhile, oil and gas companies keep reporting meaty profits and investors are rediscovering their love of hydrocarbons.
  
  The energy transition is backfiring.
  
  At the recent World Petroleum Congress in Calgary, oil executives and government officials both warned against the continued push to discourage investment in new hydrocarbon production.
  
  "There seems to be wishful thinking that we're going to flip a switch from where we're at today to where it will be tomorrow," Exxon's chief executive said during the event.
  
  "No matter where demand gets to, if we don't maintain some level of investment industry, you end up running shorter supply which leads to higher prices," Darren Woods also said.
  
  This is exactly what we are currently witnessing in Europe and the United States. Because of the transition push, oil producers are being extra cautious with production growth. Also, they are prioritizing shareholder returns to keep shareholders on, so it pays for them to be cautious.
  In Europe, the supermajors are being squeezed by windfall profit taxes, activist pressure, and increasingly restrictive legislation, so they are turning elsewhere. Shell is tapping billions of potential barrels in Namibia, and Total is considering a $9-billion commitment to oil exploration in Suriname.
  
  Meanwhile, drivers across Europe are struggling with higher fuel costs and higher electricity bills as the EU becomes increasingly dependent on intermittent wind and solar that need backup from hydrocarbon-fueled power plants. These plants are taxed heavily for their carbon emissions, which has pushed the cost of their output—and electricity bills—higher.
  
  All of this is only going to get worse before it gets better. Because despite a growing number of signs that the transition is not going according to plan, those in the driver's seat are doubling down on every single commitment.
  
  The offshore wind energy industry is essentially on its deathbed, yet there has been no change of attitude from governments. The most likely thing they would do about its problems will probably be even more subsidies instead of a reconsideration of the role offshore wind would play in the transition.
  
  In EVs, dealers are struggling with rising inventories in the U.S., and Ford said recently it was going to book a $4.5 billion loss on its EV business. In Europe, sales are up strongly, but carmakers are fretting about Chinese EVs, which are just as good as theirs but cheaper.
  
  Solar energy is doing great in the U.S., set for record growth of 32 GW this year, "helped by investment incentives under the Inflation Reduction Act," Reuters reported recently. It appears nobody really cares what happens when the sun goes down over all those gigawatts. Battery storage is far behind solar in terms of capacity.
  
  Solar is doing great in the EU, too, also thanks to heavy subsidies, only there is a shortage of qualified installers, and local panel producers are grumbling against Chinese imports that are, according to the industry, killing them.
  
  So the EU recently essentially declared a selective trade war on China through the mouth of EC president Ursula von der Leyen. China warned there would be consequences—at a time when the country has become a major exporter of fuels to Europe thanks to the Russian fuel embargo.
  
  The price of energy is going to continue higher in both Europe and the U.S. All because of an ill-conceived transition away from hydrocarbons.
  
  Source: oilprice.com
- 2023-09-23
  Oil price spike does not change ECB's view on inflation-Villeroy
  Bank of France head Francois Villeroy de Galhau, a governing council member of the European Central Bank (ECB), said on Saturday that the spike in oil and fuel prices did not change the ECB's objective to bring inflation back towards 2% by 2025. "Gasoline... Read more Bank of France head Francois Villeroy de Galhau, a governing council member of the European Central Bank (ECB), said on Saturday that the spike in oil and fuel prices did not change the ECB's objective to bring inflation back towards 2% by 2025.
  
  "Gasoline consumption at the pump represents roughly 5% of our total consumption, so it is a small part of total inflation, even if it is what is most visible," he told France Inter radio.
  
  Brent crude oil prices are trading near $100 a barrel, as investors are focused on the prospect of a supply deficit in the fourth quarter after major producers Saudi Arabia and Russia extended supply cuts.
  
  Villeroy noted that the current rise in energy prices was not as widespread as in 2022 after start of the war in Ukraine, when it included other types of energy and commodities such as grains and metals, making the rising oil price less of a threat to underlying disinflation.
  
  "I will say it again this morning, our forecast and our commitment is to bring inflation towards 2% by 2025," he added.
  
  Villeroy also reiterated that ECB rates were at a good level and called for patience.
  
  "We have passed the peak of inflation, there even seem to be a turnaround in underlying inflation (...) now we have to be perseverant, keep rates at this level for as long as it takes," he said. "Patience is more important than raising rates further."
  
  Source: Reuters.com
- 2023-09-22
  ASIA PACIFIC: ICS opens new Representative Office in Shanghai
  The International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) has opened a new Representative Office in Shanghai located in the North Bund area of the city’s Hongkou District. In a statement sent to Bunkerspot today (22 September), the ICS said this move follows the... Read more
- 2023-09-22
  EUROPE: ORLEN TO BUILD OILSEED PROCESSING PLANT TO BOOST BIOFUELS CAPABILITY
  ORLEN Południe, a part of the ORLEN Group, has signed a contract for the construction of a new oilseed processing plant located at Kętrzyn in the Polish Province of Olsztyn. In a statement issued yesterday (21 September), ORLEN said that the plant... Read more
- 2023-09-22
  GLOBAL: SCZONE AND SHELL DISCUSS GREEN FUEL PROJECTS, LNG BUNKERING
  A delegation from the Suez Canal Economic Zone (SCZONE) has met with Shell officials to discuss green hydrogen projects as well as the possibility to establish LNG bunkering operations in Egyptian ports. Headed by SCZONE Chairman, Waleid Gamal El-Dien,... Read more
- 2023-09-22
  ASIA PACIFIC: TEN YEARS AT THE TOP FOR SINGAPORE
  Singapore has retained its ranking as the world’s top maritime centre in the Xinhua- Baltic International Shipping Centre Development (ISCD) Index for the tenth consecutive year. The latest Xinhua-Baltic ISCD index published this year by the Baltic... Read more
- 2023-09-22
  Morgan Stanley Says All Oil Signals Flashing Tightness
  The price for Brent has risen, Morgan Stanley said in a note on Thursday, and all signals for crude oil are “flashing tightness,” with prices being supported at current levels. “Not only has Brent flat price risen, but calendar spreads have rallied,... Read more The price for Brent has risen, Morgan Stanley said in a note on Thursday, and all signals for crude oil are “flashing tightness,” with prices being supported at current levels.
  
  “Not only has Brent flat price risen, but calendar spreads have rallied, refining margins are unusually strong, the CFD curve is deeply in backwardation and physical differentials are elevated,” Morgan Stanley said, adding that fundamental data is telling “a similar story,” with robust demand growth and falling inventories.
  According to MS, the oil market is currently undersupplied by about 1 million barrels per day, with inventory suggesting an undersupply of 1.3 million bpd so far this quarter. The undersupply—coincidentally or not so coincidentally—pretty closely matches the volume of OPEC production declines this quarter compared to the 2nd quarter. Source: oilprice.com
- 2023-09-22
  Oil prices rise as supply concerns outweigh demand fears
  Oil prices rose on Friday as concerns that a Russian ban on fuel exports could tighten global supply outweighed fears that further U.S. interest rate hikes could dent demand, but they were still headed for their first weekly loss in four weeks. Brent... Read more Oil prices rose on Friday as concerns that a Russian ban on fuel exports could tighten global supply outweighed fears that further U.S. interest rate hikes could dent demand, but they were still headed for their first weekly loss in four weeks.
  
  Brent futures climbed 50 cents, or 0.5%, to $93.80 a barrel by 0350 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) futures gained 63 cents, or 0.7%, to $90.26 a barrel.
  
  Both benchmarks were on track for a small weekly drop after gaining more than 10% in the previous three weeks amid concerns about tight global supply as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) maintain production cuts.
  
  "Trading remained choppy amid a tug-of-war between supply fears that were reinforced by a Russian ban on fuel exports and worries over slower demand due to tighter monetary policies in the United States and Europe," said Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities Co Ltd.
  
  "Going forward, investors will focus on whether the OPEC+ production cuts are being implemented as promised and whether the rise in interest rates will reduce demand," he said, predicting WTI to trade in a range of around $90-$95.
  
  Russia temporarily banned exports of gasoline and diesel to all countries outside a circle of four ex-Soviet states with immediate effect to stabilise the domestic fuel market, the government said on Thursday.
  
  The shortfall, which will force Russia's fuel buyers to shop elsewhere, caused heating oil futures to rise by nearly 5% on Thursday.
  
  "Crude oil bounced off a session low after Russia banned diesel exports, which included gasoline. The action reversed a downside movement in crude markets following the hawkish Fed decision on Thursday," said Tina Teng, an analyst at CMC Markets (LON:CMCX), in a note.
  
  "However, mounting fears of a recession in the Eurozone could continue pressuring oil prices."
  
  The U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday maintained interest rates, but stiffened its hawkish stance, projecting a quarter-percentage-point increase to 5.50-5.75% by year-end.
  
  That buoyed fears that higher rates could dampen economic growth and fuel demand while boosting the U.S. dollar to its highest since early March, making oil and other commodities more expensive for buyers using other currencies.
  
  The Bank of England mirrored the Fed and held interest rates on Thursday after a long run of hikes, but said it was not taking a recent fall in inflation for granted.
  
  A European Central Bank (ECB) governing council member said the central bank will most likely keep interest rates stable at its next policy meeting.
  Source: Investment.com / Reuters
- 2023-09-22
  Oil faces first weekly decline in a month amid Federal Reserve signals
  The oil market is bracing for its first weekly decline in four weeks, driven by the Federal Reserve's signals of potential interest rate hikes within the year. The anticipation of higher borrowing costs has curbed the appeal for riskier assets like oil,... Read more The oil market is bracing for its first weekly decline in four weeks, driven by the Federal Reserve's signals of potential interest rate hikes within the year. The anticipation of higher borrowing costs has curbed the appeal for riskier assets like oil, despite physical scarcity in the crude market.
  
  West Texas Intermediate (WTI), a benchmark grade of crude oil, remained nearly static at around $90 per barrel this Friday. This represents a roughly 1% decrease over the week.
  
  Technical analysis suggests that recent upticks in crude oil prices may have been excessive, contributing to the dampened sentiment towards oil investments. This comes despite the ongoing physical scarcity in the crude market that has been supportive of prices until now.
  
  The Federal Reserve's indication that elevated borrowing costs could persist for an extended period has strengthened the dollar. A stronger dollar typically reduces the attractiveness of commodities priced in the currency, including oil. This dynamic is contributing to the lessened appeal of oil as an investment in light of potential interest rate hikes.
  
  This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.
  
  Source: Investing.com