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MABUX ARA LNG Bunker Index
Port LNG$/mton MGO LS$/mton Date
ARA
547.94
-83.81
648.00
-16.00
May 31
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Port	LNG$/mton	MGO LS$/mton	Date
ARA	547.94	-83.81	648.00	-16.00	May 31

MABUX Global Bunker Index

380HSFO$/mton		VLS FO$/mton		MGO LS$/mton		Date
474.48	-9.58	587.98	-11.21	773.99	-14.46	May 31

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MBP INDEX vs DBP INDEX (ICE/NYMEX)

All Indexes in $/mton	380HSFO			VLS FO			MGO LS			Date
All Indexes in $/mton	MBP Index	DBP Index	Diff	MBP Index	DBP Index	Diff	MBP Index	DBP Index	Diff	Date
Rotterdam	425	461	-36	518	553	-35	648	732	-84	May 31
Singapore	430	472	-42	557	546	+11	672	741	-69	May 31
Fujairah	407	498	-91	540	549	-9	810	789	+21	May 31
Houston	400	435	-35	515	541	-26	700	714	-14	May 31

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Latest News
- 2023-05-31
  Oil falls on weak China data, stronger U.S. dollar
  Oil prices fell on Wednesday on a stronger U.S. dollar and as weak data from top oil importer China raised demand fears. Brent crude futures for August delivery were down 73 cents, or 0.99%, to $72.98 a barrel at 1353 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate... Read more Oil prices fell on Wednesday on a stronger U.S. dollar and as weak data from top oil importer China raised demand fears.
  Brent crude futures for August delivery were down 73 cents, or 0.99%, to $72.98 a barrel at 1353 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) fell 90 cents, or 1.3%, to $68.56.
  Both benchmarks fell by over $2 earlier in the session and by more than 4% on Tuesday.
  China's manufacturing activity contracted faster than expected in May on weakening demand, with the official manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) down to 48.8 from 49.2 in April. The outcome lagged a forecast of 49.4.
  Further pressure came as the U.S. dollar rose, making commodities more expensive for buyers holding other currencies and weighing on oil demand.
  The dollar index, which measures the U.S. unit against six major peers, saw support from cooling European inflation and progress on a bipartisan U.S. debt ceiling bill, which will advance to the House of Representatives for debate on Wednesday.
  The dollar could add to recent gains if Friday's U.S. May non-farm payrolls number is stronger than expected and raises the probability of the Federal Reserve raising rates again in June.
  Market players are preparing for the upcoming June 4 meeting of OPEC+ - the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia.
  Mixed signals by major OPEC+ producers on whether or not the group will decide to further cut oil production have sparked recent volatility in oil prices.
  Despite the latest pullback in prices, banks HSBC and Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) and analysts do not expect OPEC+ to announce further cuts in the upcoming meeting.
  HSBC said on Wednesday that stronger oil demand from China and the West from the summer onwards will bring about a supply deficit in the second half of the year.
  "The most likely action is inaction," said PVM oil market analyst Stephen Brennock, regarding the OPEC+ decision.
  Separately, U.S. crude oil and gasoline stockpiles were seen falling last week, while distillate inventories likely increased, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Tuesday. [EIA/S]
  The poll was conducted ahead of reports from the American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, due at 4:30 p.m. EDT (2030 GMT) on Wednesday. Source: Reuters/Investing.com
- 2023-05-31
  GLOBAL: DRONES ATTACK REFINERIES CLOSE TO NOVOROSSIISK
  Drones have today (31 May) attacked two oil refineries which are both less than 80 kilometres east of the Black Sea port of Novorossiisk, traditionally one of Russia's biggest oil export gateways. According to reports published by Reuters and other... Read more
- 2023-05-31
  GLOBAL: ABB REVEALS ‘INDUSTRY FIRST’ ELECTRIC PROPULSION CONCEPT
  ABB has developed the ABB Dynafin, which mimics the movements of a whale tail to optimise vessel efficiency. The result of over a decade of research, development and testing, ABB says the concept represents a ‘revolutionary propulsion system breaking... Read more
- 2023-05-31
  GLOBAL: TRIO HIGHLIGHT CO2 EMISSIONS POTENTIAL FROM ROTOR SAILS, VOYAGE OPTIMISATION COMBINATION
  NAPA, Norsepower, and Sumitomo Heavy Industries Marine & Engineering Co. (SHI-ME) have announced the results of phase one of their joint simulation project looking at the fuel saving and emissions reduction potential of combining a Norsepower Rotor Sail... Read more
- 2023-05-31
  AMERICAS: MOL SETS UP US-BASED COMPANY TO INVEST IN DECARBONISATION START-UP
  Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (MOL) has announced that its newly-established company MOL Switch will be investing up to $100 million over the next three years in startups developing decarbonisation technologies in the energy sector. In a statement issued today... Read more
- 2023-05-31
  Oil falls as weak China data offsets US debt ceiling progress
  Oil prices extended losses early on Wednesday as worries of slowing demand from top oil importer China after the release of weaker-than-expected economic data outweighed some positive progress on the U.S. debt ceiling bill. Brent crude futures for August... Read more Oil prices extended losses early on Wednesday as worries of slowing demand from top oil importer China after the release of weaker-than-expected economic data outweighed some positive progress on the U.S. debt ceiling bill.
  Brent crude futures for August delivery fell 28 cents to $73.43 a barrel by 0250 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) slipped 26 cents to $69.20 a barrel, with earlier gains reversed after China manufacturing data was released. Both benchmarks fell by more than 4% on Tuesday.
  Brent's July contract, which expires on Wednesday, and the U.S. benchmark were on track for monthly declines of more than 7% and 9%, respectively.
  China's manufacturing activity contracted faster than expected in May on weakening demand, with the official manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) down to 48.8 from 49.2 in April. The outcome lagged a forecast of 49.4.
  "With China's industrial output and fixed-asset investment growing more slowly than expected last month, markets are worried that China's commodity demand is weakening more quickly than anticipated," said Vivek Dhar, director of commodities research at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (OTC:CMWAY).
  "The current pessimism surrounding China's commodity demand stands in contrast to the optimism at the beginning of this year," he added.
  In the U.S., trader sentiment was lifted slightly after legislation brokered by President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy to lift the $31.4 trillion U.S. debt ceiling and achieve new federal spending cuts passed an important hurdle late on Tuesday, advancing to the full House of Representatives for debate and an expected vote on passage on Wednesday.
  If passed, the Biden administration would not likely need to negotiate the debt ceiling again before the November 2024 presidential election, Dhar said.
  The debt deadline nearly coincides with the June 4 meeting of OPEC+ - the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia. Traders were uncertain about whether the group would increase output cuts as a slump in prices weighs on the market.
  Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman last week warned short sellers betting oil prices would fall to "watch out" in a possible signal that OPEC+ may cut output.
  However, comments from Russian oil officials and sources, including Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, indicate the world's third-largest oil producer is leaning toward leaving output unchanged.
  Meantime, Saudi oil giant Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) may further slash the official selling prices for all crude grades to Asia in July by $1 a barrel, the lowest since November 2021, a Reuters poll showed, adding mixed signals to the market on output expectations.
  In April, Saudi Arabia and other members of OPEC+ announced further oil output cuts of around 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd), bringing the total volume of cuts by OPEC+ to 3.66 million bpd, according to Reuters calculations. Source: Reuters/Investing.com
- 2023-05-31
  Three New China-Russia-Iran and Iraq Agreements Confirm The New Oil Market Order
  The last week or so has seen a flurry of major cooperation agreements - including in energy, security, and logistics – between various permutations of Iran, Iraq, Russia, and China. Like a very dark version of the old U.S. soap opera parody ‘Soap’ this... Read more The last week or so has seen a flurry of major cooperation agreements - including in energy, security, and logistics – between various permutations of Iran, Iraq, Russia, and China. Like a very dark version of the old U.S. soap opera parody ‘Soap’ this real-life version is equally convoluted, albeit a lot less funny. Its key elements constitute a significant part of the new global oil market order, which is analysed in depth in my new book on the subject, but the three most recent principal cooperation agreements will have immediate consequences for oil and gas flows around the world and their pricing.
  
  The best place to start here is at the end point of what China wants in its grand scheme of things, as delineated in its multi-generational power-grab project, ‘One Belt, One Road’. What it wants is to turn the Middle East into a large oil and gas station by which it can fuel its economic growth to overtake the U.S. as the number one superpower by 2030. The three biggest oil and gas reserves in the region belong to Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia, so it wants to control those to begin with. For Russia, which already has lots of oil and gas – over which China already has significant control – the objectives in the Middle East are more varied. One objective is to continue to exert influence in several countries that it regards as being key to maintaining some of its hold over the Former Soviet Union states. Another, more recent one, is to use this influence to bolster its position as a partner of note to China. As for the other countries in this soap opera –Iran, and Iraq, and now also more clearly, Saudi Arabia – they are in this new global alliance partly for the economic and political support from China (and to a lesser degree, Russia) and because their political systems are naturally much closer to the authoritarian regimes of China and Russia than they are to the democratic ones of the U.S. and its allies.
  
  To the money shot, then, which was Iran and Iraq signing a new set of oil and gas agreements within the last two weeks. As also analysed in full in my new book on the new global oil market order, Iran has long exerted enormous influence over its neighbour directly and indirectly through its political, economic, and military proxies. Iraq was always pre-disposed to such cooperation in the energy sector, as the two countries share several of their biggest oil reservoirs. These include Azadegan (on the Iran side)/Majnoon (on the Iraq side), Azar/Badra, Yadavaran/Sinbad, Naft Shahr/Naft Khana, Dehloran/Abu Ghurab, West Paydar/Fakka and Arvand/South Abu Ghurab. This has long proven extremely useful to Iran in avoiding sanctions, as oil from its side of these reservoirs can easily be re-branded as non-sanctioned Iraqi oil and then shipped anywhere in the world. It has also proven a useful tool for Iraq through which it can extort billions of dollar from the U.S. by promising to stop the import of Iranian electricity and gas, only to renegue on those promises the second the money hits the downtown Baghdad bank accounts. The latest cooperation agreements strengthen all these ties between Iran-Iraq further.
  
  Cue the other recent cooperation agreements aimed at making sure that whatever is Iran’s (including control over Iraq’s oil and gas reserves) it is also China’s and Russia’s. First up was Moscow, signing 10 new cooperation agreements with Iran for the oil sector alone on 18 May. According to a source who works closely with Iran’s Petroleum Ministry spoken to exclusively last week by OilPrice.com, the agreements comprise six memorandums of understanding, two contracts, one broader military cooperation roadmap, and another roadmap related to bilateral cooperation in the fields of industry, transfer of technology and oil recovery enhancement. In essence, these add up to a renewal and extension of the previous five-year and 10-year rolling agreements between Russia and Iran as also analysed in full in my new book. These allow Russia (together with China in separate agreements, to be covered in a moment) to have its firms present in any oil and gas field in Iran that Moscow chooses. It also allows for the exchange of the most promising military officers between the two countries and for Russia to have full access to Iran’s airports and seaports. Additionally, it allows for continued cooperation in other military and security matters, including intelligence, equipment and technology sharing.
  
  Russia’s man in Iran - Deputy Prime Minister and co-chair of the Permanent Russian-Iranian Commission on Trade and Economic Cooperation, Alexander Novak – stressed as well that the two countries are working on on banking interactions and using their national currencies in bilateral transactions. Further progress was also made on the North-South Transport Corridor (NSTC), with several agreements reached in the rail, road, maritime, and air transport sectors. Moscow is interested in developing the corridor all the way to India and beyond. Aside from boosting trade between Russia and Iran through the Caspian and Persian Gulf regions, these routes would also provide many opportunities for ‘dual purpose’ use – both civilian and military - of the airports and seaports.
  
  Always looking to make a big entrance, China waited for the dust to settle before it too signed new cooperation agreements with Iran on 23 May. According to the Iran source spoken to by OilPrice.com, these agreements were simply nailing down some of the remaining details on financial, investment, and energy cooperation contained in the ‘Iran-China 25-Year Comprehensive Cooperation Agreement’ first revealed anywhere in the world in my 3 September 2019 article on the subject and covered in depth as well in my new book. In the 25-Year Agreement, China is guaranteed oil and gas prices from Iran at least 30 percent lower than the relevant oil pricing benchmarks. However, since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, China has been demanding an extra discount on Iranian oil to the 30 percent discount at which it can currently also buy Russian oil, according to the Iran source. “On average, the Chinese discount for Iranian crude oil to the international benchmark over the last 12 months has been around 44 percent,” he said. “But, it is even worse for Iran, as – from 11 November 2022 - China has been paying Iran in non-convertible Yuan, that is Yuan that can only be used inside China and/or spent buying Chinese goods,” he added. “Worse still is that whilst Yuan is the key instrument in payment, China is also using the currencies of Angola, Zambia and Kenya to pay Iran, and China is doing this as a means to induce Iran to buys goods from these countries so that these countries, in turn, can service their loans to China,” he concluded.
  
  Source: Oilprice.com
- 2023-05-31
  MABUX: Sustainable downtrend to prevail in Global bunker market on May 31.
  MABUX World Bunker Index (as index calculated on current prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO and MGO) trended downwards on May 30: 380 HSFO - USD/MT - 484.06 (-1.93) VLSFO - USD/MT – 599.19 (-3.60) MGO - USD/MT – 788.45 (-6.18) As of May 30, the MABUX... Read more MABUX World Bunker Index (as index calculated on current prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO and MGO) trended downwards on May 30:
  
  380 HSFO - USD/MT - 484.06 (-1.93)
  VLSFO - USD/MT – 599.19 (-3.60)
  MGO - USD/MT – 788.45 (-6.18)
  
  As of May 30, the MABUX MBP/DBP Index (MDI), which compares market bunker prices to the MABUX digital bunker price benchmark, recorded the following changes:
  
  - HSFO segment: The underprice premium continued to increase in all four selected ports, with a range of $3 to $9 USD.
  
  - VLSFO segment: the undercharge ratio dropped in Rotterdam by $2 but increased in Fujairah and Houston by $4 each. The overcharge premium in Singapore decreased by $8 and approached the 100 percent MBP/DBP correlation mark.
  
  - MGO LS segment: the undervalue margins rose in Rotterdam, Singapore and Houston by $2 to $5. Fujairah remained the only overpriced port, with the premium widening by $3.
  
  We expect Global bunker indices will experience a significant decline on May 31: 380 HSFO –minus 5-15 USD/MT, VLSFO – minus 7-20 USD/MT, MGO LS –minus 10-25 USD/MT.
  Source: MABUX
- 2023-05-31
  WTI Plunges Below $70 With U.S. Debt Deal In Jeopardy
  WTI crude oil futures sank below $70 per barrel on Tuesday as a shakily forged debt ceiling deal threatened to disrupt financial markets. WTI plunged 3.13 by noon—a 4.14% dip on the day—below the psychological $70 barrier. The WTI July contract was... Read more WTI crude oil futures sank below $70 per barrel on Tuesday as a shakily forged debt ceiling deal threatened to disrupt financial markets.
  
  WTI plunged 3.13 by noon—a 4.14% dip on the day—below the psychological $70 barrier. The WTI July contract was trading at $69.54 per barrel as the market began to lose faith in lawmakers and the Biden Administration to finalize the deal that would raise the debt ceiling for the United States so it would be able to continue meeting its financial obligations.
  
  Aside from the debt ceiling uncertainties clouding the markets, OPEC is set to meet on June 4 to discuss its own plans for production. While OPEC—via Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman—dropped not-so-subtle hints that it could once again cut production further, leaving short sellers and speculators “ouching”, further production cuts are anything but certain. But OPEC+ heavyweight Russia has dropped several hints that it would be supporting no change to the production pact.
  
  As for the debt ceiling bill, the House of Representatives Rules Committee is set to consider the bill today at 3 pm, after which the House of Representatives and Senate will vote. U.S. President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy are confident they will get enough votes for the deal to pass, but the oil market is less certain of this outcome.
  
  The Senate vote could drag out into the weekend should Republican Mike Lee get his way, pushing the resolution to the matter dangerously close to OPEC+’s meeting date in what could be a cataclysm of forces that could send oil prices swinging wildly.
  
  Source: Oilprice.com
- 2023-05-31
  Russia’s Seaborne Oil Exports Dip But Remain High
  Russia’s crude oil exports by sea fell last week for the first time in six weeks, but they are still much higher than in February, when Russia announced a production cut of 500,000 barrels per day (bpd), tanker-tracking data monitored by Bloomberg showed... Read more Russia’s crude oil exports by sea fell last week for the first time in six weeks, but they are still much higher than in February, when Russia announced a production cut of 500,000 barrels per day (bpd), tanker-tracking data monitored by Bloomberg showed on Tuesday.
  
  In the week to May 28, four-week average crude oil exports fell by 180,000 bpd to 3.64 million bpd, for the first dip in four-week average seaborne export volumes in six weeks, according to the data reported by Bloomberg’s Julian Lee.
  
  Despite the slight drop in exports, Russian crude shipments are estimated to be 1.4 million bpd higher than at the end of 2022 and 270,000 bpd higher compared to February 2023, the baseline for Russia’s 500,000-bpd production cut, per Bloomberg’s calculations.
  
  Last week, a Bloomberg analysis of shipping data showed that oil shipments out of Russia hadn’t dropped in recent months despite the Russian pledge to cut production.
  
  Russia has said that the 500,000 bpd cuts will now extend until the end of 2023, but crude oil export data in recent weeks do not reflect any cuts—on the contrary, Russian crude oil exports by sea have been rising.
  
  Earlier this month, reports emerged that Russian Deputy Energy Minister Pavel Sorokin sought to convince Western analysts in a rare call that Russia is indeed reducing its oil production by 500,000 bpd.
  
  But earlier this month, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said that Russia had failed so far to cut its oil production by 500,000 bpd as promised, and it may even be looking to boost output to compensate for lost revenues.
  
  Russian crude oil and oil product exports continue to prove resilient, with exports hitting in April the highest level since the invasion of Ukraine, at 8.3 million bpd, the IEA said in its closely-watched Oil Market Report for May.
  
  Source: Oilprice.com