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MABUX ARA LNG Bunker Index
Port LNG$/mton MGO LS$/mton Date
ARA
850.00
+133.50
1 043.00
+20.00
Mar 2
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Port	LNG$/mton	MGO LS$/mton	Date
ARA	850.00	+133.50	1 043.00	+20.00	Mar 2

MABUX Global Bunker Index

380HSFO$/mton		VLS FO$/mton		MGO LS$/mton		Date
586.70	+11.13	677.84	+7.53	1 051.52	+8.34	Mar 5

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MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI)

Correlation between market bunker prices (MBP) and MABUX Digital Bunker Price Benchmark (DBP)

All Indexes in $/mton	380HSFO			VLS FO			MGO LS			Date
All Indexes in $/mton	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	Date
Rotterdam	558	518	+40	605	575	+30	1 023	1 015	+8	Mar 5
Singapore	604	519	+85	675	623	+52	1 090	1 008	+82	Mar 5
Fujairah	576	479	+97	673	612	+61	1 130	1 071	+59	Mar 5
Houston	478	478	0	587	552	+35	978	961	+17	Mar 5

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Latest News
- 2026-03-06
  Asia struggles to find fuel oil as Middle East exports plummet, sources say
  Fuel oil traders in Asia are struggling to secure alternative supply as the Iran war curtails shipments from key Middle Eastern suppliers through the Strait of Hormuz, prompting them to look to the West for replacement cargoes. The shortage of Middle... Read more Fuel oil traders in Asia are struggling to secure alternative supply as the Iran war curtails shipments from key Middle Eastern suppliers through the Strait of Hormuz, prompting them to look to the West for replacement cargoes.
  The shortage of Middle Eastern fuel oil volumes is set to dent the supply of bunker fuel for powering ships, with prices at key bunker ports such as Singapore set for further hikes in coming weeks, raising refuelling costs for vessel owners. Those higher costs will translate into increased prices for companies transporting goods.
  Expectations for a growing shortage sparked a sharp rally in fuel oil markets this week, especially for high-sulphur fuel oil which typically comes from the Middle East.
  Volumes of fuel oil exports transiting the Strait of Hormuz and bound for Asia typically average 1.2 million metric tons per month, or about 246,000 barrels per day, Kpler data showed, with about 70% ending up in Southeast Asia.
  Overall fuel oil exports via the Strait of Hormuz usually total about 3.7 million tons per month, the data showed.
  Tanker transits are now about 90% lower than last week, Kpler’s analysis of vessel activity showed.
  "When such a large share of the global high-sulphur complex depends on a single chokepoint, even partial transit disruption can tighten balances quickly and amplify bunker volatility," said Sumit Ritolia, lead analyst for refining and supply modelling at Kpler.
  
  WESTERN SUPPLY CHALLENGES
  Prices for high-sulphur bunker fuel delivered in Singapore, the world’s largest ship refuelling hub, have risen more than 40% since the start of the war, while prices for delivered low-sulphur fuel oil have climbed more than 30%.
  Some high-sulphur supply could come from Western refineries, though sky-high tanker rates make trading economics extremely challenging, fuel oil traders said.
  "Everyone is struggling to find oil for the second half of March. Tankers are too expensive and arbitrage to Singapore is closed," a trader based in Singapore said.
  Possible supply sources include the United States and Mexico, traders said, but volumes are insufficient. Another possible source is Venezuela, but these cargoes have remained in the West so far this year.
  "Obviously there is also Russia but these barrels remain sensitive for some buyers," another trader said. Russian fuel remains under sanction because of the war in Ukraine.
  Iranian fuel oil is also under long-standing sanctions but China continues to purchase it. However, those shipments have also halted because of the conflict.
  Any pullback in Iranian HSFO supply would prompt China’s independent asphalt producers to pull more straight-run fuel oil from Russia, limiting availability in the Singapore Strait, said consultancy FGE NexantECA.
  Others are looking towards regional Asian refiners but volumes are set to decline as they cut production amid a crude oil shortage caused by the Middle East war.
  
  In the low-sulphur market, price hikes were less steep as some supply still comes from Brazil and Nigeria, though cargoes from Kuwait’s al-Zour refinery are shut in the Gulf.
  Costs of future replenishment are expected to jump due to wider tightness in the market, said traders.
  While the market is coping with an existing large build in onshore inventories in Singapore as well as volumes stored on ships, stockpiles are set to draw sharply in the coming weeks, traders said. Source: Reuters/Investing.com
- 2026-03-06
  Oil falls as US may intervene in futures market, issues waiver for Russian purchases By
  Oil fell for the first time in six days as the U.S. government is considering potentially intervening in the futures market to blunt rising prices and has given waivers to Indian refiners to buy Russian crude to ease supply constraints from the Middle... Read more Oil fell for the first time in six days as the U.S. government is considering potentially intervening in the futures market to blunt rising prices and has given waivers to Indian refiners to buy Russian crude to ease supply constraints from the Middle East war.
  Brent crude futures were down $1.14, or 1.33%, to $84.27 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate down $1.46, or 1.8%, to $79.55 as of 0251 GMT.
  The U.S. has taken the steps to ease the surge in prices after it, along with ally Israel, started a military conflict with Iran on February 28 that has halted tankers from moving through the Strait of Hormuz, which typically carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s daily oil supply, shut refineries and oil output and shuttered liquefied natural gas plants in the key Middle East energy-producing region.
  In the previous four trading sessions since the war started, Brent has climbed 18% while WTI has gained 21%.
  A senior White House official said on Thursday, the U.S. Treasury Department is expected to announce measures to combat rising energy prices from the Iran conflict, including potential action involving the oil futures market, without providing any details.
  The potential move would mark an unusual attempt by Washington to influence energy prices through financial markets rather than physical oil supplies.
  To ease physical supply constraints, which have caused refineries, especially in Asia, to start reducing their fuel processing, the Treasury also granted waivers for companies to start buying sanctioned Russian oil stored on tankers.
  
  The first waivers were given to Indian refiners who have responded by buying millions of barrels of prompt Russian crude oil cargoes, sources said, reversing months of pressure on them to halt the purchases.
  Analysts cautioned that the recent gain in prices is relatively subdued compared to other price shocks, particularly after the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, when prices rose above $100 a barrel.
  “While panic around surging oil prices appears to be spreading beyond market circles, it’s important to put this move into perspective: despite crude’s almost 20% surge this month, the price is currently just $3.40 above its average over the last four years,” IG analyst Tony Sycomore wrote in a note. Source: Reuters/Investing.com
- 2026-03-06
  Why Qatar's LNG Halt Won't Trigger a Long-Term Global Price Spiral
  Natural gas prices have reacted strongly to QatarEnergy’s decision to cease LNG production and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid escalating conflict in the Middle East escalate. Still, despite a more than 52% surge at Europe’s benchmark Title Transfer... Read more Natural gas prices have reacted strongly to QatarEnergy’s decision to cease LNG production and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid escalating conflict in the Middle East escalate. Still, despite a more than 52% surge at Europe’s benchmark Title Transfer Facility (TTF) on 2 March, Rystad Energy expects the current supply shock to have a limited long-term impact on global gas and liquefied natural gas markets.
  
  This outlook is based on the expectation that the disruption will be temporary and manageable in terms of volumes.
  
  “With Qatari LNG output halted and the Strait of Hormuz closed, global LNG supply is set to tighten sharply, a trend already reflected in recent price movements.
  
  The scale of lost volumes will depend on the extent of any infrastructure damage, which is still being assessed, and the duration of the Strait’s closure to maritime traffic.
  
  In a scenario where there is limited or no damage and hostilities subside quickly, leading to a 15-day production halt, we estimate a 4.3% decline in 2026 output, equivalent to around 3.3 million tonnes (Mt) .
  
  A more prolonged disruption could result in 5.6 Mt of lost supply, while a full-scale interruption lasting four to five weeks before the Strait reopens to commercial traffic would translate into a loss of approximately 11.2 Mt for the full year 2026.
  
  Given the central role of LNG exports in Qatar’s economy and in global trade flows, we expect production to be restored within weeks rather than months.”
  
  Should a worst-case scenario manifest, opportunistic producers could bring to market up to 15 Mt of incremental LNG, while the reintegration of Russian LNG could yield another 18 Mt.
  
  With this being said, the most affected countries are chiefly price-sensitive, developing economies that are much more likely to seek refuge in fuel-switching, focusing on thermal coal more so than similarly affected oil products, rather than triggering a bidding war.
  
  QatarEnergy halts production
  Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz had already stalled when QatarEnergy halted LNG production following a drone strike on its gas facilities in Ras Laffan on 2 March. The stop, without an announced end date, affects Qatar’s entire liquefaction capacity of 77 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) currently. While the events certainly cloud Qatar’s medium-term outlook, the LNG powerhouse is set to nearly double its capacity to 142 Mtpa within the next decade by adding 64 Mtpa across three expansion phases – North Field East (32 Mtpa), North Field South (16 Mtpa) and North Field West (16 Mtpa). NFE's first train is expected online in 3Q26, barring infrastructure damage or continued shipping difficulties. NFS targets first gas in late 2028 or early 2029 and NFW took FID only days ago.
  
  Could an extended closure catapult Russia back into the market?
  LNG markets entered the year with growth expectations. Pre-war, Rystad Energy expected producing facilities to add 13.9 Mt and start-ups (or re-starts in the case of Darwin LNG) to contribute 7.6 Mt over and above 2025 volumes. Spurred by higher-than-anticipated prices, facilities in West Africa and the US could likely increase LNG output somewhat, unlike previous net-exporter Egypt whose gas balance is suffering due to the cessation of Israeli pipeline exports.
  
  Even so, should Qatar’s facilities sustain further damage, or should Iran dissuade commercial shipping through the Strait by means of force, much higher volumes could be removed from the global LNG balance in 2026. If such a worst-case scenario does materialize, reintroducing Russian LNG could become a point of discussion. Compared to 2025, sanctions relief alone could reinject up to 5.3 Mt plus another 12.8 Mt from Arctic LNG 2. The reintroduction of Russian volumes, however, hinges on lifting all sanctions and Europe buying most Russian LNG to support shipping logistics. This course of action would undermine long-term US LNG expansion by exacerbating oversupply concerns once Qatari volumes come back or even pave the way for the return of Russian pipeline supply. Since both are diametrically opposed to US interest, it must be considered extremely unlikely.
  
  Why a price spiral is unlikely
  
  The ongoing US-Israel campaign in the Middle East is set to tighten global gas supply in 2026.
  However, these developments are unfolding in a market characterized by relatively looser balances and expanding trade flows, with a different set of countries at the center of the disruption and distinct demand side responses emerging as a result.
  
  The impact is likely to fall most heavily on price-sensitive South Asian buyers, including Bangladesh and Pakistan, rather than on premium markets willing to bid aggressively for cargoes. While large-scale demand curtailment may appear to be the most direct adjustment mechanism, gas is deeply embedded in the primary energy mix of these economies.
  As a result, we expect a combination of demand restraint and, where technically feasible, fuel switching. That said, higher crude and oil product prices could constrain the scope for switching,
  
  Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-03-06
  Wall Street Demands Clarity on Trump’s Hormuz Rescue Plan
  It's been a wild ride in crude over the past few days, with Brent crude futures were capped near $84 a barrel on Tuesday afternoon before sliding down to the $81 level late Wednesday afternoon, only to surge back up to $84 this morning... ...as shipping... Read more It's been a wild ride in crude over the past few days, with Brent crude futures were capped near $84 a barrel on Tuesday afternoon before sliding down to the $81 level late Wednesday afternoon, only to surge back up to $84 this morning...
  
  ...as shipping industry insiders and Wall Street analysts await exact details on the Trump administration's proposal to keep tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The critical maritime chokepoint remains paralyzed, raising the risk of an energy shock in parts of the world that rely heavily on those flows, particularly in Asia.
  
  President Trump wrote in a Truth Social post that the U.S. will provide insurance for "ALL Maritime Trade" through the U.S. Development Finance Corporation (DFC) and will provide Navy escorts "if necessary."
  
  The shutdown is already hitting global energy flows:
  
  QatarEnergy Declares Force Majeure As One-Fifth Of Global LNG Supply Goes Dark
  
  Oil Spikes To Session High As Iraq Starts Shutting Output At Massive Oil Field
  
  Now comes the hard part, with the shipping industry and Wall Street analysts all asking the same question: how will every tanker transiting the Arabian Sea through the Gulf of Oman, into the Strait, and onward to the Persian Gulf be protected by U.S. or allied air or naval forces?
  
  "Nothing is sure and we need immediate clarity," said Khalid Hashim, managing director of Precious Shipping Pcl, a Thai firm that owns bulk carriers.
  
  Hashim said, "Lives are at risk, cargoes are at risk, ships are at risk. We need immediate cover that protects us from all this."
  
  While some shipowners say they're mulling over joining escorted convoys, many remain very cautious, noting that escorts do not eliminate the risk of the IRGC's asymmetric warfare, such as the use of drones.
  
  Analysts also question whether the Trump administration has done enough planning to make the proposal bulletproof in the near term. Overall, the market sees Trump's plan as a temporary fix to restart flows in the Strait, with Brent crude futures capped at $84 since the announcement and currently trading around $81.
  
  UBS analyst Benjamin Benson, "Improved risk sentiment following US President Trump's announcement on maritime insurance and US Navy security support further aided the recovery in prices."
  
  Current activity in the Strait of Hormuz:
  
  "The core thing shipowners are thinking about is the real risk of loss," said Karnan Thirupathy, partner at Kennedys Law LLP, who specializes in commodities and shipping. "No one goes into the trade if the risk of loss is simply too high."
  
  RBC Capital Markets LLC analysts noted, "President Trump's comments about insurance and tanker escorts caused a pullback in oil prices, we question how much planning has been done on the insurance backstop thus far and think there could be a number of challenges in executing this plan quickly."
  
  Wall Street Journal noted by late afternoon that the Trump administration was in talks with one major insurance broker about how to get ships moving through the Strait of Hormuz:
  
  A team from insurance broker Marsh Risk met with administration officials Tuesday and offered to help the U.S. government create an insurance mechanism that could lower shipping risk and make insuring ships more affordable, said Marcus Baker, the firm's global head of marine, cargo and logistics. Energy prices have soared since Iran warned it could start attacking ships in the strategic waterway, slowing oil shipping to a standstill.
  
  "Providing protection for all tankers operating in areas currently threatened by Iran is unrealistic as this would require a very high number of warships and other military assets," Bimco security analyst Jakob Larsen noted.
  
  Let's remind readers that the U.S. and its allies had a difficult time securing the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint, where Houthi rebels repeatedly launched missiles and drones at commercial ships linked to the U.S. and Israel. That certainly matters now. It also comes as the U.S. and its allies are burning through significant volumes of air-delivered munitions in Operation Epic Fury.
  
  Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-03-06
  Hormuz Shock Sends China and India Racing for Russian Crude
  The crisis around the Strait of Hormuz has become a severe stress test for both Gulf crude suppliers and their key buyers. Despite repeated assurances from U.S. officials that the waterway was never formally blocked, satellite tracking suggests that no... Read more The crisis around the Strait of Hormuz has become a severe stress test for both Gulf crude suppliers and their key buyers. Despite repeated assurances from U.S. officials that the waterway was never formally blocked, satellite tracking suggests that no oil or product tankers transited the strait since March 1. The disruption immediately placed the world’s largest importers under pressure. China and India together consume tens of millions of barrels per day, and both remain structurally dependent on Gulf crude. China has steadily expanded purchases of Russian oil since 2022, yet roughly 1/3 of its crude imports originate in the Gulf. India, meanwhile, has been deliberately reducing its earlier heavy reliance on Russian barrels and replacing them with Middle Eastern supplies. With the Iranian crisis unfolding and no quick normalization of Hormuz traffic in sight, both Asian giants may turn to their long-standing supplier in Moscow like never before. The key question is: does Russia have sufficient export capacity to meet the sudden surge in demand?
  
  The shift in India’s purchasing pattern has been particularly visible in recent months. Indian imports of Russian crude declined steadily from 1.85 million b/d in November 2025 to just 1.06 million b/d in February 2026. Much of the remaining flow has been concentrated in a single outlet: the Vadinar refinery operated by Nayara Energy, partly owned by Rosneft. By February, roughly half of the Russian crude delivered to India (around 510,000 b/d out of the 1.06 million b/d total) was imported there. In November 2025, the share was markedly smaller, with 560,000 b/d flowing to Vadinar out of the 1.85 million b/d imported overall. The retreat from Russian supply was largely driven by mounting pressure from Washington, prompting Indian refiners to stop buying Russian barrels. By February 2026 crude from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait accounted for more than half of India’s total imports of 5.18 million b/d, reaching roughly 2.8 million b/d compared with just 2 million b/d in November 2025. The nearly 1 million b/d increase reflected a belief that Gulf crude offered legal stability and relatively low prices. That assumption is now being severely tested, as a significant share of those cargoes is effectively stranded in Gulf waters waiting for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The disruption is likely to force New Delhi to reconsider its recent distancing from Russian supply – assuming those barrels are still available.
  
  China faces a challenge of its own. In February 2026, its seaborne imports of Russian crude reached a new record of 1.92 million b/d. Yet the Iranian crisis affects Chinese refiners on two fronts. Unlike India, China was also a major buyer of Iranian crude, importing roughly 1 million b/d in February. Combined imports from Kuwait, Iraq, the UAE and Saudi Arabia totalled about 3.4 million b/d in the same month. Taken together, the potential loss of Iranian supply and disruption to Gulf shipments threatens more than 1/3 of China’s crude imports. In this context, Russian barrels appear both politically and logistically attractive. Overland pipeline flows and shipments from Russia’s Far Eastern ports offer one of the few large-scale supply channels that bypass the Gulf entirely.
  
  Recent tanker movements underline how the market is already adjusting. A wave of U.S. enforcement actions against Venezuelan oil exports has left a number of numerous VLCCs idle in Asian waters. Many of these vessels had previously been used to collect Venezuelan crude through ship-to-ship (STS) transfers. With those flows disrupted, several of the VLCCs became redundant. Russia appears to have quickly stepped into that logistical vacuum. Although Russian exporters rarely relied on VLCCs in the past, at least 8 such vessels are currently positioned in the Arabian Sea and near Singapore, either en route to China or waiting offshore. There’s 12 million barrels of medium sour Urals alone that are carried by VLCCs, not counting Russia’s Far Eastern grades, surpassing the previous record carry of 9.8 million barrels from February 2023. Most of the cargoes they carry are already committed to Chinese buyers, offering little hope for India’s supply concerns.
  
  How much of the spare Russian oil is available now? Floating storage suggests that Russia’s spare export capacity may be limited. Inventories of Russian crude at sea climbed steadily through late January 2026, reaching about 19.6 million barrels. Since then, they have declining continuously. By early March, only 12 vessels remain in floating storage, holding roughly 7 million barrels in total, and several of those tankers are already anchored near Chinese ports awaiting a signal to offload. In other words, the pool of unsold Russian crude available on short notice has shrunk significantly.
  
  Pricing dynamics are shifting as well. Market insiders report that the Hormuz disruption has narrowed the discount of Russia’s Urals grade to Brent from roughly $10/bbl to $5-6/bbl. At the same time, Russia itself may soon have additional crude available for export because domestic refining activity has slowed. Russian refinery throughput fell from about 5.5 million b/d in December 2025 to roughly 5.15 million b/d in February 2026. Part of the decline followed drone strikes on two refining facilities, including the Volgograd refinery (300,000 b/d capacity) and the Ukhta refinery (80,000 b/d capacity). Planned maintenance at several other plants scheduled for March and April is expected to further reduce domestic crude demand, potentially freeing additional barrels for exports.
  
  Moscow’s most likely strategy in the current environment will be to play its two largest Asian customers against each other. In previous months, Russian exporters often stored unsold cargoes in tankers near Singapore or along the Chinese coast, a tactic that unintentionally signalled oversupply and widened price discounts. The current market situation is markedly different. With most floating cargoes already allocated and supply chains disrupted across the Gulf, the next wave of Russian barrels is not yet visible. That scarcity gives Russian sellers leverage to raise prices by pointing to strong demand from competing buyers. For both India and China, the Hormuz crisis may therefore lead to the same conclusion: Russian crude remains one of the few reliable alternatives – but it may no longer come as cheaply and abundantly as before. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-03-06
  China to Further Boost Crude Oil Reserves under Five-Year Plan
  The world’s top crude importer, China, plans to further boost its undisclosed strategic oil reserves and expand storage capacity under its newly-unveiled five-year development plan. China will build more projects to expand its oil reserves, according... Read more The world’s top crude importer, China, plans to further boost its undisclosed strategic oil reserves and expand storage capacity under its newly-unveiled five-year development plan.
  
  China will build more projects to expand its oil reserves, according to the authorities, who did not provide figures or details about the expected jump in crude reserve buildups and capacities.
  
  The country is also betting on growing its domestic natural gas production and keeping its crude oil output steady at about 4 million barrels per day (bpd), or 200 million metric tons per year.
  
  That’s lower than the 216 million tons of crude China pumped in 2025. Targeting slightly lower annual output through 2030 suggests that China could soon meet constraints in boosting domestic oil output.
  
  However, gas production is planned to increase, as well as crude reserves and the capacity to stash oil, as China is looking to boost its energy security to protect itself from the massive exposure to the global oil and gas markets and volatile prices in geopolitical events such as the ongoing war in the Middle East.
  
  In the past year alone, China has been amassing crude in strategic and commercial reserves, propping up oil prices throughout 2025 even though its demand growth has weakened.
  
  Beijing is estimated to have been sending over 1 million bpd of crude into commercial and strategic inventories for nearly a year—taking advantage of lower international prices and even lower prices for sanctioned supply out of Iran, Venezuela, and Russia.
  
  The Chinese strategy to build up reserves during a nearly year-long buying spree at relatively low prices is now paying off, as the world’s top crude importer has some buffer to power through the early days of the severely disrupted oil flows out of the Middle East, analysts say.
  
  China’s energy security strategy and plan to aggressively buy cheaper crude, including sanctioned barrels, is insulating the world’s second-largest economy, to some extent, from short-lived supply disruptions as the war in Iran and Tehran’s retaliatory strikes on Gulf neighbors escalate. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-03-06
  Ecopetrol Eyes Oil Output Boost As Iran Crisis Pushes Up Prices
  Colombia’s state-controlled oil giant Ecopetrol may increase spending and boost output if elevated oil prices persist amid the escalating Middle East conflict, the company’s chief executive said Thursday. Benchmark Brent crude has surged to its highest... Read more Colombia’s state-controlled oil giant Ecopetrol may increase spending and boost output if elevated oil prices persist amid the escalating Middle East conflict, the company’s chief executive said Thursday.
  
  Benchmark Brent crude has surged to its highest level in more than a year following U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran and disruptions to exports from the Persian Gulf. Brent climbed to more than $85 per barrel this week, up from roughly $70 before the conflict erupted on February 28.
  
  Ecopetrol CEO Ricardo Roa told analysts during the company’s quarterly earnings call that the firm is closely watching market developments and could adjust capital spending to take advantage of stronger prices.
  
  “We will of course be reviewing the situation,” Roa said. “If we see the potential for higher investments we will adjust our capex to be on the higher range of our guidance, with the capability of increasing production on a short term basis.”
  
  Ecopetrol has budgeted between $5.4 billion and $6.7 billion in capital expenditures this year. About 57% of that spending is allocated to exploration and production, while power subsidiary ISA accounts for roughly 25%. Downstream operations represent 7%, midstream activities 6%, and energy transition initiatives about 5%.
  
  Ecopetrol previously projected slightly lower production this year. The company expects average output of 730,000 to 740,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2026, compared with 751,000 barrels per day in H1 last year. As of November 2025, their 2026 production plans were based on just $60 Brent.
  
  Company executives cautioned that the ultimate impact of the Middle East conflict remains uncertain.
  
  Chief Financial Officer Camilo Barco said it was too early to determine how the geopolitical crisis might affect Ecopetrol’s finances, noting that higher crude prices could be partially offset by rising shipping and transportation costs.
  
  “It depends on how long the conflict will last and the extent to which it affects exporters in that region,” Barco said.
  
  Stronger crude prices could increase demand for Colombian barrels and refined products, Barco added, but freight rates have already surged sharply amid the turmoil. Shipping costs are currently running roughly 150% to 160% higher, potentially eroding some of the gains from higher oil prices.
  
  Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-03-06
  Drone Strike Hits Bahrain Refinery as Crack Spreads Surge
  A drone strike hit oil infrastructure in Bahrain’s Ma’ameer industrial area, according to multiple early reports Thursday morning, raising concerns about the vulnerability of Gulf refining assets as regional tensions escalate. The Ma’ameer area is... Read more A drone strike hit oil infrastructure in Bahrain’s Ma’ameer industrial area, according to multiple early reports Thursday morning, raising concerns about the vulnerability of Gulf refining assets as regional tensions escalate.
  
  The Ma’ameer area is home to infrastructure connected to BAPCO’s refining operations. While full details remain limited, early reports indicate an Iranian ballistic missile attack targeted energy infrastructure in the industrial zone rather than upstream production.
  
  Authorities have not yet released a full damage assessment, although reports mention several large fires at Bahrain Petroleum Company’s primary refinery. It remains unclear whether refinery operations have been disrupted.
  
  Editors' Update: Bahrain's BAPCO confirms a strike on its 405k b/d Sitra refinery; no casualties were confirmed. BAPCO claims that the refinery is still operational and that the fire has been contained.
  
  Energy markets reacted quickly to the reports, with refining margins widening as traders moved to price in the risk of supply disruptions. Crack spreads—an indicator of refinery profitability that measures the price difference between crude oil and refined products such as gasoline and diesel—have been climbing as markets begin to focus on refining capacity as a potential pressure point.
  
  Diesel margins, tracked by the ICE gasoil crack spread against Brent, widened as traders priced in potential refinery disruptions in the Gulf. ICE low-sulfur gasoil futures surged more than $100 per metric ton in early trading, far outpacing gains in Brent crude, which rose only a few dollars per barrel as traders brace for potential disruptions to diesel and jet fuel supply.
  
  In recent days, attacks and threats against energy infrastructure across the Gulf have increasingly shifted attention away from crude production and toward the refining system that turns crude into usable fuels.
  
  Global crude supply is typically buffered by inventories and spare production capacity, allowing markets time to adjust to supply losses. Refining capacity, however, is far less flexible. Damage to a refinery can tighten product markets almost immediately, pushing up prices for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel.
  
  Bahrain’s refining sector may be modest compared with those of Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates, but it remains an important hub for refined fuel supply in the Gulf. The country has also spent years expanding and upgrading its refining system, increasing its role in producing diesel and other products for export.
  
  Traders are now watching closely for confirmation of operational disruptions. Depending on the extent of the damage, the incident could further tighten already stressed product markets and add another layer of volatility to global energy prices. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-03-06
  Shell Signs Oil and Gas Exploration Deal in Kazakhstan
  Shell and Kazakhstan have signed an agreement for oil and gas exploration in the Zhanaturmys block in western Kazakhstan, the Kazakh Energy Ministry said on Thursday. The agreement – signed by Kazakhstan’s Deputy Energy Minister Yerlan Akbarov and... Read more Shell and Kazakhstan have signed an agreement for oil and gas exploration in the Zhanaturmys block in western Kazakhstan, the Kazakh Energy Ministry said on Thursday.
  
  The agreement – signed by Kazakhstan’s Deputy Energy Minister Yerlan Akbarov and Suzanne Coogan, Senior Vice President and Country Chair at Shell Kazakhstan – entails seismic exploration, data collection, and technical assessment of potential oil and gas resources in the Zhanaturmys block.
  
  The contract will run until 2032, considering the scale and technical complexity of the exploration project in the block that spans 1,377 square kilometers, or 532 square miles, the Kazakh Energy Ministry said.
  
  The Zhanaturmys block is located in one of Kazakhstan’s most promising oil and gas basins and could hold significant potential for expansion of hydrocarbon exploration in the country, the ministry added.
  
  Shell’s Coogan commented that the agreement reaffirms Shell’s commitment to long-term cooperation with Kazakhstan, the energy ministry said.
  
  Shell and other international majors are currently locked in lawsuits and international arbitration with Kazakhstan over two major producing projects in the country.
  
  The international oil companies operating the giant Kashagan oilfield in Kazakhstan last month initiated an arbitration process to challenge a massive $5-billion fine for allegedly exceeding sulfur storage limits at a processing facility at the second biggest oilfield in the OPEC+ producer.
  
  The Kashagan oilfield is being developed by the North Caspian Project consortium of international majors, including Shell, and Kazakhstan’s state oil firm KazMunayGas.
  
  Kazakhstan has several arbitration cases with as much as $166 billion in claims against the majors for damages, mostly because of lost revenues from delays at the Kashagan oilfield.
  
  “We think that there’s still a lot of potential investment opportunities in Kazakhstan, but we will hold until we have better line of sight to where things end up,” Shell’s chief executive officer Wael Sawan told analysts during the Q4 earnings call last month, referring to the lawsuits. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-03-06
  Japanese Refiners Urge Government to Release Strategic Oil Reserves
  Japan’s oil refiners, which source about 95% of their crude supply from the Middle East, are calling on the Japanese government to tap the strategic petroleum reserves to ensure smooth operations and crude for refineries as the Middle East war escalates.... Read more Japan’s oil refiners, which source about 95% of their crude supply from the Middle East, are calling on the Japanese government to tap the strategic petroleum reserves to ensure smooth operations and crude for refineries as the Middle East war escalates.
  
  Japanese refiners are in talks with the government to potentially access strategic stockpiles and oil stored in tanks that are leased to producing countries, anonymous sources with knowledge of the development told Bloomberg on Thursday.
  
  On Tuesday, Ryosei Akazawa, the Japanese Minister of Economy, Trade, and Industry, said that the government has no immediate plans to release crude from the strategic reserves.
  
  Japan is heavily reliant on crude from the Middle East—it sources about 95% of its crude oil supply from the region, mostly from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Qatar.
  Of these Middle Eastern supplies, about 70% typically arrive in Japan on tankers traveling through the Strait of Hormuz.
  
  But the world’s most critical oil transit chokepoint has been effectively closed to tanker traffic since the beginning of the week after the war in the Middle East escalated and shipowners stopped passing the narrow lane while insurers’ clubs ended war risk coverage for vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and nearby waters in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.
  
  As one of the oil importers most reliant on crude supply from the Middle East, Japan, a G-7 economy, faces high risk of delays of crude deliveries.
  
  Japan, however, can rely on a large enough reserve and is a member of the International Energy Agency (IEA), which requires member states to ensure oil stock levels equivalent to no less than 90 days of net imports and to be ready to collectively respond to severe supply disruptions affecting the global oil market.
  
  At the end of 2025, Japan had 254 days of oil reserves, including 146 days worth of consumption in national reserves, and more than 100 days of inventories with the private sector. Source: Oilprice.com

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