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MABUX ARA LNG Bunker Index
Port LNG$/mton MGO LS$/mton Date
ARA
638.50
0.00
622.00
+5.00
Jan 5
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Port	LNG$/mton	MGO LS$/mton	Date
ARA	638.50	0.00	622.00	+5.00	Jan 5

MABUX Global Bunker Index

380HSFO$/mton		VLS FO$/mton		MGO LS$/mton		Date
396.99	+2.14	475.24	+1.97	721.98	+2.80	Jan 6

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MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI)

Correlation between market bunker prices (MBP) and MABUX Digital Bunker Price Benchmark (DBP)

All Indexes in $/mton	380HSFO			VLS FO			MGO LS			Date
All Indexes in $/mton	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	Date
Rotterdam	364	398	-34	412	443	-31	622	635	-13	Jan 6
Singapore	356	394	-38	424	481	-57	609	628	-19	Jan 6
Fujairah	330	363	-33	421	472	-51	713	691	+22	Jan 6
Houston	344	380	-36	416	431	-15	605	608	-3	Jan 6

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Latest News
- 2026-01-06
  Oil falls on prospect of higher Venezuelan output, ample supply outlook
  Oil prices fell on Tuesday as traders weighed the prospect of higher Venezuelan crude output following the U.S. capture of President Nicolas Maduro, adding to expectations of ample global supply this year amid weak demand. Brent crude futures fell 0.2%... Read more Oil prices fell on Tuesday as traders weighed the prospect of higher Venezuelan crude output following the U.S. capture of President Nicolas Maduro, adding to expectations of ample global supply this year amid weak demand.
  Brent crude futures fell 0.2% to $61.62 a barrel by 0103 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $58.15 a barrel, down 0.3%.
  "I think if the Trump playbook even partially comes to pass, Venezuelan crude oil production should increase... Should it increase, there will be more pressure on an already over supplied market," said Marex analyst Ed Meir.
  Market participants polled by Reuters in December already expected oil prices to be under pressure in 2026 due to growing supply and weak demand. [O/POLL]
  Price pressure is now likely to be exacerbated by the U.S. capture of Venezuela’s leader on Saturday which increases the chance of an end to a U.S. embargo on Venezuelan oil and the likelihood of more output.
  The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump plans to meet U.S. oil executives this week to discuss boosting Venezuelan oil production, a person familiar with the matter told Reuters.
  Oil benchmarks settled more than 1% higher in the previous trading session, as investors digested news of Maduro’s capture and U.S. comments about taking control of Venezuela.
  Maduro pleaded not guilty on Monday to narcotics charges.
  Venezuela is a founding member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and has the world’s largest oil reserves at about 303 billion barrels. However, its oil sector has long been in decline due in part to under-investment and U.S. sanctions.
  
  Its average output last year was 1.1 million barrels per day.
  Oil analysts said Venezuelan output could increase by as much as half a million barrels a day over the next two years if there is political stability and U.S. investment.
  "Longer term, the U.S. administration’s stated desire to drive up Venezuelan oil supply is likely to provide a net bearish impulse to the market," Citi said in a client note.
  
  "Importantly we continue to think that OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia, will likely respond to any significant rise in inventories by cutting output to protect $55-60/bbl Brent over the medium term should supply surprise to the upside."
  At a short meeting on Sunday, OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, agreed to maintain output levels. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-01-06
  From Oil to LNG, Too Much Supply Is Still the Problem in 2026
  Crude oil began trade this year with a dip, despite the news about U.S. strikes on Venezuela and the taking of President Nicolas Maduro to the U.S. Normally, such events would have pushed oil higher, but not this year. This year, oil prices will need... Read more Crude oil began trade this year with a dip, despite the news about U.S. strikes on Venezuela and the taking of President Nicolas Maduro to the U.S. Normally, such events would have pushed oil higher, but not this year. This year, oil prices will need a much more major disruption to rebound – and so will gas prices.
  
  Brent crude was trading at a little over $60 per barrel at the start of the first full trading week of 2026, after President Trump announced the capture of the Venezuelan president, accompanied by statements regarding the country’s oil industry.
  
  “We’re going to have our very large United States oil companies, the biggest anywhere in the world, go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure, the oil infrastructure and start making money for the country,” the U.S. president said during the weekend.
  
  Analyses of the situation followed immediately, pointing out the challenges of turning words into action. These include costs, with the Wall Street Journal citing estimates of $10 billion a year to turn Venezuela’s oil industry around, and political stability. “The potential to boost Venezuelan production hinges on capital, which in turn depends on political stability and likely requires guarantees from the U.S. government,” Jefferies analysts wrote on Sunday.
  
  In other words, despite the initial shock of the U.S. incursion into the country with the largest oil reserves, no immediate change in the global oil supply situation is on the horizon, and if there is a change, it would bring more, rather than less oil to consumers, adding to the bearish sentiment among traders.
  
  OPEC+’s reiteration of the pause in production builds at the group’s latest meeting did nothing to change that sentiment, either. First of all, the affirmation was expected, and second, it is widely seen as the only path for OPEC+ after a year during which oil benchmarks shed close to 20% regardless of the group’s cuts. The producers’ group said the global market was well balanced going into 2026—making it one of the few entities that share this belief.
  
  For most, it is going to be a very bearish year for oil. Per Kpler, oil on tankers has risen further from the record high reached last year and now stands at the highest since April 2020, Reuters’ Clyde Russell noted in a recent report. Of course, it bears noting that a lot of this oil is in transit to its buyers but the amount in its totality appears to be of concern to market observers.
  
  The European Union is a case in point. Brussels last year signed a commitment to buy $750 billion worth of U.S. energy commodities over a period of three years. While the undertaking was quickly revealed to be physically impossible, expectations were for some increase in energy commodity purchases. Instead, the EU actually spent less on U.S. crude and liquefied gas—and not just because of lower prices.
  
  Per Reuters’ Russell, the European Union bought an average 1.73 million barrels daily of U.S. crude oil in 2025. That was down from 1.91 million barrels daily a year earlier. LNG imports, to be fair, increased, and they increased strongly, going from 45.14 million tons in 2024 to as much as 72.24 million tons in 2025. Even with that surge, the EU’s total energy commodity imports from the United States were worth $82.3 billion last year, as opposed to commitments to spend $250 billion that year.
  
  Leaving aside unrealistic import commitments, China is also signaling weakening demand for both crude oil and liquefied gas, which pressured prices last year and will likely continue pressuring them this year. China has been stocking up on crude oil, taking advantage of the price discount, especially for sanctioned crude from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, and this has strengthened the impression that it is using less oil than it buys, even if the lead motive of the stockpiling push is to make the most of the price situation.
  
  But LNG demand from China is weaker than many imagined, too, and it is buying from Russia. In the meantime, new U.S. export projects are expected to start operations this year, adding to supply—and to pressure on prices. This is making the situation complicated for the industry because weaker gas prices in Europe—the biggest importer of U.S. liquefied gas—are driving down profit margins for exporters. Analysts warn that if the price falls further, LNG exporters will lose their incentive to keep exporting so much LNG.
  
  “U.S. LNG has made outstanding margins since late 2021, but those margins have come back to more normal levels now as the market has stabilised and new LNG capacity starts coming online,” MST Marquee’s head of energy research, Saul Kavonic, told Reuters in December. Now, the margins are slipping below normal, and if the spread between the U.S. gas benchmark and the European TTF narrows to below $4 per mmBtu, many exporters would have to start dialing back production.
  
  The new year, then, is, for now at least, not serving any surprises in energy commodity fundamentals. Yet it could be the year when we see the start of a market correction prompted by the perception of weak demand and oversupply. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-01-06
  Why Geopolitical Chaos Isn’t Pushing Prices Higher
  If you’ve been watching global headlines lately, it would be easy to assume oil prices would be sky-high: a major oil-reserve country mired in crisis, sanctions on perennial producers, regional conflicts simmering, and social unrest in several exporters.... Read more If you’ve been watching global headlines lately, it would be easy to assume oil prices would be sky-high: a major oil-reserve country mired in crisis, sanctions on perennial producers, regional conflicts simmering, and social unrest in several exporters. And yet Brent and WTI have been languishing around $60 a barrel, a level that, a decade ago, most analysts would have dismissed as impossible in such conditions
  
  What’s happening?
  
  At first glance, the logic of oil pricing should be straightforward: supply risk should mean higher prices. But today’s market tells a very different story, one where geopolitical shocks don’t automatically translate into price shocks.
  
  The Changing Nature of Supply Risk
  
  Take Venezuela, the poster child of dysfunctional oil production. Sitting on the world’s largest proven crude reserves, you’d expect its political upheavals to roil markets. In reality, Venezuela’s output has already shrivelled over years of mismanagement, sanctions, and capital flight. What matters most to traders isn’t headline reserve totals, it’s actual barrels available to buy, ship, refine, and burn. Caracas no longer moves global supply balance sheets in any meaningful way. This is also unlikely to change with the US intervention, as companies require a stable regime to operate in. Such is a long way away in Venezuela.
  
  Meanwhile, traditional trouble spots like Russia and Iran are constrained by sanctions more than geology. Their exports find buyers, but often at steep discounts and under complex legal and logistical workarounds. Oil markets have, over the past decades, learned to price sanctions as part of the baseline, not an extraordinary disturbance.
  
  Demand Is the New Wild Card
  
  What’s truly different now isn’t just supply, it’s demand behavior.
  
  A decade ago, oil demand growth was almost a given. Emerging markets industrialized en masse; transportation fuel demand climbed inexorably; industrial energy use marched upward. Today, that certainty has fractured. Efficiency gains, electrification of vehicles, alternative fuels and regulatory pressures have altered the trajectory. Even in markets where oil demand hasn’t peaked, it’s plateauing, or at best growing slowly.
  
  In today’s world, traders don’t simply ask: “Will supply tighten?”
  They increasingly ask: “Will demand growth falter before supply truly tightens?”
  
  That shift matters. A potential drop in consumption, driven by EV uptake, fuel efficiency, and energy transition policies, is far more price-inhibiting than any single supply disruption is price-supporting.
  
  Strategic Stocks and Spare Capacity
  
  Another layer to this puzzle is the buffering effect of strategic reserves and spare capacity. Where once a refinery outage or pipeline strike would send instant ripples through crude curves, today there are more mechanisms to cushion temporary disruptions. Strategic Petroleum Reserves, coordinated production management by OPEC+, and stock builds in consuming economies are all part of a toolkit that dampens sharp price spikes.
  
  In other words: markets aren’t as quick to panic. They assume that if one area falters, another can fill gaps at least temporarily. That assumption has become baked into pricing algorithms and risk premia.
  
  A Broader Shift Underway
  
  Perhaps the most profound change isn’t in oil markets alone, it’s in the broader energy landscape. The global energy transition has expanded the palette of strategic fuels. Renewables and gas are increasingly central to power generation. Electrification is eating into transportation demand. Energy systems are becoming more localized and less dependent on seaborne crude. These trends don’t make oil irrelevant—but they do reduce the hammer-lock that geopolitical risk once had on prices.
  
  The result: oil markets behaving less like they used to.
  
  So, Is Oil Still Critical?
  
  Yes, but in a different way.
  
  Oil remains essential for aviation, shipping, petrochemicals, and many industrial processes. It’s not suddenly optional. But the market’s muted response to geopolitical disruption suggests something structural has changed.
  
  Oil is still a strategic commodity, but it’s no longer the sole arbiter of energy security. Its price now reflects not only geopolitical risk, but demand uncertainty, competitive fuels, and a world in transition. And in that world, crises that once guaranteed a spike in prices now barely trouble the market’s equilibrium. That’s not just a market signal, it’s a reflection of a broader energy evolution that’s well underway. Source:
- 2026-01-06
  Iraq’s Gas Breakthrough Could Rewrite the Middle East Power Map
  Iraq’s Oil Ministry has confirmed that it is expediting the development of the Gharraf and Nassiriyah gas projects, with full operations expected to begin by early 2027, and production capacity reaching 200 million standard cubic feet per day (mmscf/d).... Read more Iraq’s Oil Ministry has confirmed that it is expediting the development of the Gharraf and Nassiriyah gas projects, with full operations expected to begin by early 2027, and production capacity reaching 200 million standard cubic feet per day (mmscf/d). This fast?tracking is being presented as a long?overdue step toward energy self?sufficiency, but the real stakes lie far beyond the technicalities of associated?gas capture. For the West, reducing Iraq’s dependence on Iranian gas is a strategic imperative aimed at weakening Tehran’s grip over Baghdad; for China and Russia, preserving that dependency helps maintain the integrity of the Iran-anchored ‘Shia Crescent of Power’ that underpins their broader regional ambitions. With both blocs quietly pulling in opposite directions, will Iraq’s latest push develop a genuine momentum, or will it turn out to be just another carefully choreographed illusion of progress?
  
  The longstanding problem for the West in their attempt to establish an enduring presence in Iraq has been the even longer-standing influence of neighbouring Iran through its political, economic, religious, and military proxies, as fully analysed in my latest book on the new global oil market order. The clearest expression of this has been Baghdad’s continued reliance on Tehran for around 40% of its power supply -- delivered through gas and electricity imports -- a dependency that has produced three major consequences. First, the constant threat of immediate and prolonged power cuts, layered on top of those already endured, has muted political dissent against the Iran-aligned status quo. Second, it removed any urgency for Baghdad to exploit its own vast volumes of associated gas for financial gain, whether through exports or as feedstock for high-value petrochemicals projects such as the long-stalled Nebras initiative. And third, it discouraged top-tier Western firms from committing capital to the large-scale developments such as the Common Seawater Supply Project that could lift Iraq’s oil output to levels capable of elevating it to the position of the world’s second-largest oil producer after the U.S.
  
  For years, rectifying this situation was not the primary focus of the West in Iraq, as it was instead focused on maintaining its military influence in the country following its removal of Saddam Hussein in 2003. Even after the U.S.’s ‘End of Combat Mission’ in Iraq in December 2021, Washington and its allies were content to keep granting waivers to Baghdad to keep importing Iranian energy, although its patience became increasingly strained during the first presidency of Donald Trump, also detailed in my latest book. However, in his second term, all this changed, with April seeing the introduction of the ‘No Iranian Energy Act’ to U.S. lawmakers. As highlighted by Chairman of the Republican Study Committee, Congressman August Pfluger, this legislation is part of President Donald Trump’s maximum pressure campaign against Iran’s leaders. “[These] are the world’s most dangerous state sponsors of terrorism, [and] the Iranian regime is not just a threat, its leaders are a genocidal death cult,” he said. The proposed Act will definitively sanction the importation of Iranian natural gas to Iraq. An adjunct piece of legislation – the ‘Iran Waiver Rescissions Act’ -- would permanently freeze Iranian-sanctioned assets everywhere, including Iraq, and prohibit any standing or future U.S. President from using any waiver authority to lift the sanctions.
  
  The key to rapidly increasing Iraq’s own gas supply for power generation or petrochemicals feedstock — and therefore reducing its dependence on Iran — lies in cutting the vast volumes of gas flared during oil production. Until very recently, Iraq was the world’s second?largest gas flarer after Russia, burning more than 17 billion cubic metres (Bcm) a year despite joining the United Nations and World Bank’s ‘Zero Routine Flaring’ initiative in 2017, which commits signatories to end routine flaring by 2030. Strip out this waste and Iraq’s gas potential looks formidable: official estimates put southern reserves at around 3.5 trillion cubic metres (Tcm) -- roughly 1.5% of global totals -- placing the country 12th among the world’s reserve?holders. Around three-quarters of this is associated gas, and the figures were not updated when Iraq revised its proven oil reserves upward in 2010. The International Energy Agency, however, estimates ultimately recoverable resources at closer to 8 Tcm, with roughly 30% thought to be non-associated. In the north, Kurdistan’s Ministry of Natural Resources assesses proven reserves at 0.7 Tcm and unproven resources at up to 5.6 Tcm -- around 3% of global deposits. These numbers are broadly credible: the U.S. Geological Survey believes that undiscovered resources in the Zagros fold belt alone -- much of which lies within the Kurdistan region -- amount to roughly 1.5 Tcm.
  
  In a neat turn of synchronicity, one of the earliest attempts to close the gap between gas being flared and gas being captured for productive use centred on the very same areas now back in focus: Gharraf and Nassiriyah. In 2018, Iraq’s Oil Ministry reached a broad agreement with U.S. oil?field services giant Baker Hughes to capture around 200 mmscf/d of associated gas from Gharraf, neighbouring Nassiriyah, and several fields north of Basra. Baker Hughes will be the key collaborator here too, along with the state-owned South Gas Company, and the China Petroleum Engineering & Construction Corporation also having a presence in the project. The original agreement between Iraq’s Oil Ministry and Baker Hughes was intended to run in parallel with rising oil output from the fields themselves -- with Gharraf, for example, slated to lift production from roughly 90,000 barrels per day (bpd) to its targeted plateau of 230,000 bpd under the joint stewardship of Japex, Petronas, and Iraq’s North Oil Company. According to the Oil Ministry, the first phase of the Baker Hughes plan involved deploying an advanced modular gas?processing system at the Integrated Natural Gas Complex in Nassiriyah to dehydrate and compress flare gas, generating more than 100 mmscf/d. The second phase would expand the Nassiriyah facility into a full natural gas liquids (NGL) plant capable of recovering 200 mmscf/d of dry gas, LPG, and condensate. All of this output was earmarked for domestic power generation, with Baker Hughes estimating that capturing the flared gas from these two fields alone could supply around 400 megawatts to the Iraqi grid. At the time, deputy oil minister Karim Hattab said the project would take 30 months to complete – so it should have been finished around four years ago.
  
  The fact that it was not highlights that, despite this latest push, Iraq finally breaking out of its long-running cycle of dependency on Iran is far from guaranteed. Baghdad has had access to the technical solutions and the required reserves for years, and the logic for capturing rather than burning its gas has been obvious for much of that time. What might catalyse a major shift now is the sheer weight of the geopolitical pressure from the West bearing down on Baghdad. With Washington moving to eliminate the waivers that once allowed Iraq to rely on Iranian imports, the cost of inaction is no longer measured in lost revenue or stalled projects but in the risk of ever-tighter sanctions that could destabilise the entire economy. As a senior source close to Iraq’s Oil Ministry exclusively told OilPrice.com last week, the choice here -- as with most oil and gas decisions in the Middle East -- has far more to do with geopolitics than with energy. “If [current Prime Minister, Mohammed Shia’] al-Sudani is finally chosen again [following the recent elections] as the leader, then it’s very likely Iraq will move in this direction [to greater gas capture and reduced reliance on Iran], but if a leader emerges from the large pro-Iran faction then it just won’t happen.” Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-01-06
  MABUX: Global bunker market to resume upward trajectory on Jan. 06.
  The MABUX World Bunker Index — a composite indicator reflecting daily prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO, and MGO — recorded a downward correction on Jan. 05: 380 HSFO: USD/MT 394.85 (-1.62) VLSFO: USD/MT 473.27 (-1.93) MGO: USD/MT 719.18 (-3.93) As of... Read more The MABUX World Bunker Index — a composite indicator reflecting daily prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO, and MGO — recorded a downward correction on Jan. 05:
  
  380 HSFO: USD/MT 394.85 (-1.62)
  VLSFO: USD/MT 473.27 (-1.93)
  MGO: USD/MT 719.18 (-3.93)
  
  As of Jan. 05, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI) — tracking the correlation between Market Bunker Prices (MBP) and the MABUX Digital Bunker Price Benchmark (DBP) – revealed the following trends across the main global hubs: Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston:
  
  • HSFO segment: All four ports continued to be undercharged. Discounts narrowed by $1 in Rotterdam, widened by $4 in Singapore and $1 in Fujairah, and remained unchanged in Houston.
  
  • VLSFO segment: All four ports stayed in the undercharge zone. The underpricing expanded by $3 in Rotterdam, $6 in Singapore, and $4 in Fujairah, while Houston’s MDI showed no change.
  
  • MGO LS segment: Rotterdam and Singapore stayed in the undercharge zone, with discounts decreasing by $6 and $8, respectively. Fujairah and Houston remained overcharged ports: the premium increased by $9 in Fujairah, while declining by $1 in Houston. The MDI values for Rotterdam, Singapore, and Houston moved closer to the 100% correlation level between MBP and DBP.
  
  We expect Global bunker indices to resume an upward trend on Jan. 06: 380 HSFO – plus 2-5 USD/MT, VLSFO – plus 3-6 USD/MT, MGO LS – plus 3-8 USD/MT.
  Source: MABUX
- 2026-01-06
  How Washington's Control of Venezuelan Oil Could Reshape China's Energy Supply
  The FTSE 100 kicked off the new year on the front foot with a morning rally after the fallout from the United States’ capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro sent a batch of City stocks on the march. London’s blue-chip index sprung up towards... Read more The FTSE 100 kicked off the new year on the front foot with a morning rally after the fallout from the United States’ capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro sent a batch of City stocks on the march.
  
  London’s blue-chip index sprung up towards the 10,000 points mark as markets opening before giving up some gains to land 0.2 per cent higher at near 9,970.
  
  Leading the pack was defence and metal stocks after President Donald Trump’s strike on Venezuela – and openess to further escalation with other nations – sent jitters across markets.
  
  Gold miners Endeavour Mining and Fresnillo were among top risers with gains of over four per cent, which comes after the price of the “safe haven” asset jumped 2.2 per cent in early trading to $4,424 an ounce.
  
  Meanwhile, defence stocks were benefiting from the rising tensions with shares in blue-chip giant Babcock netting an all-time high at 1,329p after a 4.4 per cent rally. BAE Systems was up 4.5 per cent and Rolls-Royce 2.3 per cent.
  
  It comes after Trump refused to rule out military action in Colombia telling reported in Sunday it “sounds good to [him]” whilst also doubling down on previous suggestions the US “need” Greenland and is considering an offensive on Cuba.
  
  Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper is expected to make a statement to MPs following the US’ operation to lay out the government’s formal response.
  
  Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, told City AM the slow influx of corporate news for the New Year was “more than compensated” by the fallout in Venezuela.
  
  US could dictate China’s oil supply
  
  On Saturday, Trump announced the capture of Venezuelan President Maduro, who is set to appear in US Federal Court in New York. Trump has clamped down on Venezuela following accusations of the nation dumping its prisoners into the US and failing to stop the flow of fentanyl into the country.
  
  But oil has also remained a central piece to the conflict with Venezuela holding the world’s largest estimated oil reserves, though the country’s output remains at a fraction of capacity due to decades of mismanagement.
  
  Trump has said the US plans to “run” Venezuela and insert its own oil majors to the country to control and ramp up its oil production.
  
  “We’re going to have our very large United States oil companies, the biggest anywhere in the world, go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure, the oil infrastructure, and start making money for the country,” the President said.
  
  The US’ Energy Information Administration estimates Venezuela has near 303bn barrels worth of crude – near 20 per cent of the world’s resource – but exports just 900,000 per day with China acting as the biggest customer.
  
  Bejing has urged the US to “stop toppling” the Venezuelan government with the top diplomat of China accusing the White House as behaving like a “world judge”.
  
  Despite the rising tensions, oil prices have remained subdued in the fallout.
  
  Brent crude dropped near 1.3 per cent despite Trump’s pledge to pump billions into the oil-rich nation to fix infrastructure.
  
  Analysts expect China to be forced to pay higher rates for oil, should the US maintain control of Venezuelan production.
  
  Jordan Rochester, an analyst at Mizuho Bank, said: “By controlling Venezuela, the US doesn’t need to own the oil; it just needs a hand on the tap.
  
  “This shapes global energy flows and decides whether China gets cheap heavy crude or has to pay market rates elsewhere.”
  
  How is the UK government reacting?
  
  The Labour government has taken a coy line on the US’s involvement in Venezuela despite pressure from party backbenchers and opposition groups.
  
  Keir Starmer emphasised the UK was not involved in the strikes on Friday night while saying he would “shed no tears” over the end of Maduro’s time as president.
  
  Starmer and other government ministers including chief secretary to the prime minister Darren Jones refused to say whether the operation to capture Maduro represented a breach of international law.
  
  Starmer added he was a “lifelong advocate of international law” and would seek to gather more information before making a full comment. Foreign secretary Yvette Cooper is expected to address parliament by the end of the day on the matter.
  
  Labour MPs Emily Thornberry, Jon Trickett, and Richard Burgon are among those who have called for Starmer to stand up to Trump, along with the Liberal Democrats and the Greens.
  
  The Conservatives also said it would wait for “full facts” on the operation and hope to see Venezuelans “enjoy democratic norms and freedoms”.
  
  Reform UK’s Nigel Farage said that while the capture broke international law, it could “make China and Russia think twice” about taking on global powers. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-01-06
  U.S. Oil Stocks Surge Following Trump’s Blitz in Venezuela
  Shares in supermajor Chevron and the biggest U.S. refiners soared in pre-market trade on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump opened the door to American investment in Venezuela’s oil industry following the capture of Nicolas Maduro. Chevron,... Read more Shares in supermajor Chevron and the biggest U.S. refiners soared in pre-market trade on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump opened the door to American investment in Venezuela’s oil industry following the capture of Nicolas Maduro.
  
  Chevron, which is currently the only U.S. and Western oil firm authorized by the United States to operate in Venezuela, saw its shares jump by 6% in pre-market trade.
  
  Chevron, as well as other integrated U.S. oil companies, are set to benefit from the touted opening of Venezuela’s oil sector to U.S. investment.
  
  U.S. refiners, for their part, will also benefit from increased flows of Venezuela’s heavy crude to the U.S. Gulf Coast refineries, which are configured to run on heavier crudes and have had to replace Venezuelan oil since 2019 with higher imports from Canada and some Arab Gulf producers such as Iraq.
  
  Shares in the biggest refiners, Marathon Petroleum, Valero Energy, Phillips 66, and PBF Energy surged by between 5% and 12% in pre-market trade on Monday.
  
  The capture of Nicolas Maduro was followed by claims by President Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio that American oil companies would be very interested in rebuilding Venezuela’s oil industry.
  
  “We’re going to have our very large U.S. oil companies, the biggest anywhere in the world, go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure, oil infrastructure, and start making money for the country,” President Trump said on Saturday, shortly after the Venezuelan leader was captured and flown to the U.S. to face drug cartel-related charges.
  
  Rubio, for his part, told ABC in an interview on Sunday “Our refineries in the Gulf Coast of the United States are the best in terms of refining this heavy crude, and there’s actually been a shortage of heavy crude around the world, so I think there would be tremendous demand and interest from private industry if given the space to do it, if given the opportunity to do it.” Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-01-06
  Oil Prices Slip as Markets Eye the Return of Venezuelan Crude
  Oil prices edged lower in early Asian trading on Tuesday as markets weighed the possibility of higher Venezuelan crude output, reinforcing expectations of ample global supply amid weak demand. Brent crude futures fell around 0.34% to trade near $61.55... Read more Oil prices edged lower in early Asian trading on Tuesday as markets weighed the possibility of higher Venezuelan crude output, reinforcing expectations of ample global supply amid weak demand.
  
  Brent crude futures fell around 0.34% to trade near $61.55 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate slipped by 0.45% to $58.06 per barrel in early.
  
  Price pressure was due to the prospect of a potential easing of U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan oil and a subsequent increase in output. In an already well-supplied global market, the fear of additional oil appears to be outweighing any concerns of a short-term supply shock.
  
  As markets continue to digest the fallout from the U.S. capture of Maduro, members of the Trump Administration are expected to meet with U.S. oil executives this week to discuss boosting Venezuelan oil production. Venezuela, a founding member of OPEC with the world’s largest proven oil reserves, averaged roughly 1.1 million barrels per day of crude output last year, well below its historical capacity.
  
  Venezuelan production could rise by as much as 500,000 barrels per day over the next 18 months under improved political and investment conditions, a development that could further weigh on oil prices despite the likelihood of a response from OPEC+ if inventories rise sharply.
  
  President Trump has been very clear that the blockade of Venezuela and the capture of its president have been driven by the desire to revive Venezuela's oil industry and regain what he alleges were stolen assets and oil. If the new acting president proves willing to work with the U.S., then the likelihood of sanctions being lifted and production climbing will increase dramatically. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-01-06
  Denmark Says Trump’s Greenland Threat Looks Real After Venezuela Move
  Denmark’s prime minister Mette Frederiksen has warned that U.S. President Donald Trump is serious about taking over Greenland, adding that a U.S. attack on a NATO ally would be the end of all, with concern in Copenhagen renewed after Washington’s recent... Read more Denmark’s prime minister Mette Frederiksen has warned that U.S. President Donald Trump is serious about taking over Greenland, adding that a U.S. attack on a NATO ally would be the end of all, with concern in Copenhagen renewed after Washington’s recent actions against Venezuela hardened views on Trump’s use of power.
  
  "If the United States decides to militarily attack another NATO country, then everything would stop -- that includes NATO and therefore post-World War II security," Mette Frederiksen told Danish television network TV2.
  
  On Sunday, Trump repeated that the US needs Greenland “from the standpoint of national security.”
  
  “We need Greenland. … It’s so strategic right now. Greenland is covered with Russian and Chinese ships all over the place,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One. “We need Greenland from the standpoint of national security, and Denmark is not going to be able to do it.”
  
  Greenland is a large Arctic territory spanning 2.17 million square kilometers (836,000 sq mi), making it the world's largest island. However, its land area (ice-free) is much smaller, around 410,450 sq km, as nearly 80% of the island is covered by a massive ice sheet. That said, Trump's interest in Greenland is partly due to its vast, untapped reserves of critical minerals vital for tech and defense, reducing reliance on China.
  
  The Arctic holds significant deposits of rare earth elements, cobalt, nickel, and other metals crucial for batteries, EVs, and defense technology. Climate change is making critical minerals in the Arctic more accessible by melting ice and permafrost, opening up land for exploration, while also creating new challenges like destabilized infrastructure and environmental risks, leading to a complex geopolitical race for these resources vital for green tech.
  
  While receding ice and thawing ground improve physical access for mining, creating opportunities for nations like Greenland, Russia, and Canada, it simultaneously threatens fragile ecosystems and Indigenous communities with pollution, as seen with past oil spills from thawing permafrost, raising serious sustainability questions. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-01-06
  EIA: Oversupply And Sluggish Demand To Blame For Weak Oil Prices In 2025
  The U.S. Energy Information Administration has revealed that global oil supplies exceeded demand in 2025, leading to a sharp decline in oil prices. Monthly average Brent crude oil prices declined from $79 per barrel in January to $63 per barrel in December,... Read more The U.S. Energy Information Administration has revealed that global oil supplies exceeded demand in 2025, leading to a sharp decline in oil prices. Monthly average Brent crude oil prices declined from $79 per barrel in January to $63 per barrel in December, the lowest monthly average price since early 2021. Meanwhile, oil prices averaged $69 per barrel in 2025, the lowest in five years even after adjusting for inflation.
  
  Oil markets responded to a raft of (mostly) negative catalysts throughout the year. Oil prices fell in the first half of the year due to slowing economic activity taking a toll on global oil demand. Prices fell nearly $15 per barrel in April amid escalating tariffs and fears of retaliatory levies by the largest economies.
  
  OPEC+ announcements hit oil markets in the second half of the year with fears that unwinding their production cuts could lead to oversupplied markets. In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, EIA estimates that global petroleum inventories build sharply in the second half of 2025, with implied stock builds approaching around 2 million barrels per day at times as production of crude oil and liquid fuels continues to outpace consumption.
  
  For 2026, EIA has projected average Brent crude price at $55.08 per barrel and WTI at $51.42 per barrel, cutting from its previous forecast of $54.92 and $51.26 per barrel, respectively. Similar to the previous year, the market is expected to face a significant and persistent supply surplus throughout 2026.
  
  This glut will be driven by a combination of resilient output from non-OPEC+ producers (including the U.S., Brazil, Guyana, and Canada) as well as the unwinding of voluntary production cuts by some OPEC+ members.
  
  U.S. oil output has remained resilient, contributing a steady flow of supply to the market despite prices hovering near some producers' break-even levels. Meanwhile, global oil demand growth has slowed, especially in major economies like China and Europe. Factors contributing to this include the increasing adoption of electric and hybrid vehicles, energy efficiency gains and general sluggish global economic growth. Source: Oilprice.com

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